The last three weeks of the regular season should be really exciting, but Tulane still has a lot of work to do after getting in position to chase its first regional berth in seven years. A lot of work. The metrics don’t favor Tulane—yet.
UCF and Cincinnati, the two teams Tulane beat in the last two weeks, are tied for last place in the standings now. Let’s keep this hot streak in perspective. UCF, which was ranked in the top 10 nationally a month ago, is 5-10 in the AAC and has lost 12 of its last 16 games, including a 9-3 defeat to North Florida this past Tuesday. Aside from two home series wins against Memphis and UCF, Cincinnati (13-30) has been awful all year. The next three weeks, when Tulane faces conference co-leaders Houston and Memphis and USF at home before traveling to Memphis, will make or break the Wave’s at-large NCAA regional hopes.
Tulane's best wins are against SLU (twice) and UNC Wilmington, neither of which is a lock for the tournament. Tulane has a bad series loss to UC Riverside, which has an RPI of 208 and is 13-28. Tulane is 3-6 against fellow AAC contenders. At the very least, Tulane probably has to go 5-4 in the last three weeks to finish with a winning record in the AAC.
Here are my thoughts on the pecking order of the six AAC teams in contention at the moment:
1) Houston
RPI: 26.
Ranked in a couple of polls, the Cougars (29-15, 9-6) don't have a terrible loss and are 6-3 against their fellow contenders in the AAC. I'm not sold on them as a slam dunk, though, because they are 8-9 against the RPI top 50. 13-12 against the top 100 and don't have a win against a surefire tourney team. They could drop as far as sixth in the standings if they struggle in the next three weeks. After playing at Tulane this weekend, they don't have another road game, getting ECU and UConn at home.
2) Memphis
RPI: 42
Ranked by Baseball America, the Tigers (29-13, 9-6) are 11-8 against the top 50 and 16-9 against the top 100, easily the bet numbers in the league in those categories. They beat Arkansas and Ole Miss 1 out of 2/. They also still have a home series against Cincinnati, which won't help the RPI but will help their bid for the league's regular season title. The schedule is very favorable, with a trip to UCF and a home series vs. Tulane after Cincinnati. They are 6-3 against the fellow AAC contenders. So what's the nagging doubt? The non-conference schedule is not great, with the four games against Arkansas and Ole Miss the only matchups against teams above No. 50 and seven wins against bottom feeders Eastern Illinois and Alcorn State. They lost a series at Cincy. And they're Memphis, which is not supposed to carry weight but probably would in a close call. There's just not much pedigree.
3) South Florida
RPI: 24
USF's RPI is preposterous, but it usually matters to the selection committee. The Bulls (28-16-1, 9-6) have been largely uncompetitive against top notch teams, losing three games to Florida and FSU by the combined score of 44-7 and dropping two to Illinois by the combined score of 18-3 before salvaging the finale. They are 11-14 against top 100 teams but do have a win against traditional power Cal Fullterton, which struggled early in the year but is hot now. Their schedule might get them in the field even though they did not perform well against the best teams on it. They are 6-6 against fellow AAC contenders and are facing a stretch of eight straight road games. A pair of series against UCF sandwich a trip to Tulane, and they better beat their imploding in-state rivals to get on the right side of the bubble.
4) UConn
RPI: 39
The RPI loves UConn (29-13, 7-8), too, and I'm not sure why. It's best win out of conference was v. Michigan State, which is No. 31 in the RPI but unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at 25-17 right now. Aside from getting swept by FAU to start the year, the non-conference schedule is weak as it usually is for northern teams. UConn is 6-10 v. the RPI top 50 and 11-13 against the top 100 and 5-7 against fellow AAC contenders. The key for the Huskies is winning a series at ECU this weekend because they get sorry Cincinnati at home the following week and can vault into contention for the regular season title heading into a final series at Houston.
5) East Carolina
RPI: 44
Other than being tied for the conference lead, the Pirates (29-16, 9-6) don't have much going for them. The thing is, they still have a series left with Cincinnati, so winning the regular season title is a realistic possibility. They have a home series with UConn and a trip to Houston before playing Cincy. They are only 6-11 v. the top 50 and are 13-14 vs. the top 100. Their best non-conference win is against No. 53 NC State, and that won't cut it unless they finish atop the AAC standings. They are 6-6 against fellow AAC contenders.
6) Tulane
RPI: 45
Tulane's next eight games are at home and 10 of its last 11 games are against teams among the RPI top 42, so the Green Wave (27-16. 8-7) will have plenty of opportunities to add heft to its resume the rest of the way. Beating SLU tomorrow is imperative to show dominance against a fellow Louisiana bubble team, and winning 2 of 3 from Houston to erase the 2-1 series loss at Houston would be huge this weekend. Another series win at home against South Florida and its bogus RPI the following weekend would give Tulane a nice RPI boost. It needs to be 33-18 overall and 12-9 entering what could be a tough final series at Memphis.
The difference between the top six teams in the AAC is not huge, so this order can change dramatically in the next three weeks. David Pierce likes Tulane's positioning.
"It’s exactly where you want to be in late April, and that’s having an opportunity to control what you control, and we have that opportunity," he said Monday. "We talk a lot about the RPI. It’s not the bottom line, it’s only one measurement, but it tells you the quality of the opponents that we have in the next 11 games."