Although the home-run power is lacking, Tulane is good enough offensively to make a run in Clearwater again this year. Theo Bryant, who had a family crisis in December I am not allowed to reveal that really set him back mentally, has become the player the Wave coaches saw in the fall and actually is leading the AAC in OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) during conference play. Jason Wachs is tied for second in batting average at .370 in league games. Gavin Schulz is a proven clutch performer who was out-of-this-world good in Clearwater two years ago and productive again last season. Connor Rasmussen is a winner who understands what to do at the plate. Kaikea Harrison, the 9-hole hitter, is batting well above .300 since the start of April. Matthias Haas, Hugh Pinkney, Jason Agabedis and Tanner Chun all are capable of doing good things. And who knows? Maybe Jackson Linn will come off the bench and do something after having a shockingly miserable year. He is a good guy who has not checked out.
The million-dollar question is whether or not Tulane will get the pitching with its seemingly ERA of a million to make the potential hitting matter.
Barring a sweep in either direction this weekend, it looks like Tulane will be in the 8 a.m. Tuesday opener against FAU in the 4-5 seed game. FAU ace Trey Beard is far superior to anyone Tulane will throw, most likely Luc Fladda, and the Wave will need him to have an off day. Fladda gave up eight runs in 1.1 innings against FAU just two weeks ago, giving up one hard hit after the other, so the Wave coaching staff may go in another direction if they feel it is a matchup issue. Obviously Tulane has to win the opener to have any kind of a chance, so the odds will be stacked against the Wave if FAU is the opponent.
The second game would be a tough matchup, too, if Tulane ends up in UTSA's half of the bracket as appears likely. Yes, Trey Cehajic beat UTSA in San Antonio last month, but Wave pitching against those bats is a mismatch in almost any scenario. The hope would be that UTSA, which does not have a real ace, would lose to the No. 8 seed (of the potential opponents, Rice has the best ace, Memphis has a serviceable one and Wichita State has next to nothing). UTSA won't have much to play for because it already is a lock for a regional and did not even bother to bid on a hosting role because its facility is inadequate, so you never know what the motivation level would be.
Regardless, some Tulane pitcher who has endured a rough year will have to step up in Clearwater. Maybe Will Clements, who has good stuff but has not been a good pitcher in his two years in New Orleans, or Jacob Moore, who has been quite poor after having an excellent season in 2024, or Blaise Wicenski, whose good week last week appears to be an outlier, or even Garrett Payne, who has excellent stuff but zero control. You know Michael Lombardi will be terrific at the back end, but he has not proven he can pitch the same way as a starter. Tayler Montiel probably will pitch well--he has a good year and has good stuff--but after that, it's pitch and pray.
Lombardi will not be available as a hitter because of his injury, but he was struggling at the plate anyway recently and Bryant has been outstanding as his replacement.
Jay Uhlman, who has pulled the right strings in Clearwater, will have a lot of decisions to make along with Anthony Izzio as to who pitches when. There is no clear answer when a team struggles on the mound like Tulane has.
SEED SITUATION
Here are the only ways Tulane avoids being in the 4-5 game, either rising to 2 or 3 or falling to 6
1) Sweep Charlotte and FAU does not sweep UAB
2) Win 2 out of 3 against Charlotte and USF gets swept at home by ECU and FAU loses series at UAB
3) Win 1 of 3 against Charlotte and have ECU sweep USF and FAU win at least one game at UAB
4) Get swept by Charlotte and have ECU win series against USF
CHARLOTTE NOTES
Ace Blake Gillespie is a dominant workhorse who has gone at least 6.2 innings in every AAC start, but he almost certainly will be on a pitch count, so his durability will not be a factor.
Charlotte has the very rare combination of having the best fielding percentage in the nation but being last in the AAC in turning double plays.
Charlotte has stolen 16 bases for the year, ranking fourth-to-last in all of Division I.
Charlotte has only two left-handed pitches it uses with any regularity. Both are relievers.
Charlotte is near the bottom of the AAC in hitting but just scored 29 runs on Tuesday against UNC Asheville.
Charlotte's coach reminds me of David Pierce in the way his staffs always pitch well. The 49ers' ERA of 3.73 in league games is nearly a run better than anyone else in the AAC.
