Key point here is that the ACC GoR and conference exit fee allegedly drops to below $100M in 2030, the same year the current B1G and Big 12 deals expire, setting the stage for another round of conference realignment.

The pieces at play are that the B1G and SEC are allegedly collaborating to secure four autobids each in 16 team expanded CFP. Methods of collaboration include syncing conference schedules at either eight or nine games, each creating a conference tournament play-in for the autobids on conference championship weekend, and the two conferences scheduling one or two annual cross-conference games at the beginning of the season. Ideally the SEC and B1G would be at the same number of schools, whether that is 18 or 20.

The podcast I posted at the bottom claims from a B1G source that “everyone already knows” who the ACC would take as backfill, and those schools have already been vetted and approved by ESPN. Source did not say who these schools are, but the host believes USF is the ACC’s top target should FSU leave, and Memphis and Tulane are next.

UNC is allegedly a top target for ESPN in the SEC. So much so that they’d move NC State as well, if the two cannot be separated for political reasons. B1G is interested in FSU, Miami and ND. Not interested in Clemson. ESPN has a vested interest in keeping the ACC viable, as they own and have made significant investment into the ACCNetwork and have a favorable TV deal with current members. They will not simply let schools walk to Fox/CBS/NBC and the B1G. The $100M exit fees should be enough of a deterrent to keep most of the schools to receive the financial windfall of those exit fees, but low enough where UNC, Clemson, FSU and Miami could pay it if they want to.

If Tulane is in fact one of these schools that ESPN has already approved as backfill, these next few years will be crucial building the athletic department to put us in the best position for ACC backfill.

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Let's be honest, Pepperdine is not a good team. Still, while many of our fans treated this weekend as a sure sweep for the Wave (not the Waves), I had some concerns. Clearly, the Pepperdine team has little offense based on its season so far, but I was concerned about their best pitchers. Going into the Tulane series, their three weekend starters and two key relievers had a combined ERA of 2.97. The rest of the team compiled a 10.01 ERA. Unfortunately, we’ve only seen two of their starters and their best two relievers. They’ve dominated us and only allowed two runs in 18 innings (1.00 ERA). We’ve been unable to get to the weak part of their staff. Hopefully today will be different. Their starter has a 2.89 ERA through 9.1 innings but hasn’t gone beyond 4 innings in any of his two starts and one relief appearances. We need to knock him out early and get to their bullpen. While I think the pitching we’ve seen so far has been good, our hitting has dropped off the cliff this weekend. Gotta turn that around and also get a good pitching performance from our guys. Back to my first sentence, Pepperdine is NOT a good team. Losing two out of three to them, let alone the possibility of being swept, is totally unacceptable.

Roll Wave!!!

The Green Wave leaves for Pepperdine early tomorrow morning, so interviews were today after last night's 13-3 win at Nicholls, which is nowhere near as good as in the past two years.

This Tulane team passes the eye test for plate discipline and pitching depth through eight games, but the sample size is too small to draw concrete long-range conclusions. It should sweep Pepperdine this weekend or at least win two of three while dominating the series but coming up short once because baseball is baseball, but one early trend away from Tulane is encouraging. Despite its top two teams in the preseason poll struggling over the first two weeks, the AAC ranks fourth in conference strength behind the SEC, Big 12 and AAC and has a winning percentage of .6212. There's no way to say that will hold up, but it is a far higher ranking than last year, when it finished a dreadful 12th, and 2023, when it placed ninth. Even if the league slips a couple of spots, it would give Tulane more margin for error in conference play than last year, which is significant considering the lightness of the non-conference schedule.

The rotation this weekend will be Luc Fladda, Trey Cehajic and TBD for Sunday.

We talked to Uhlman and Cehajic today, and I also grabbed Anthony Izzio.

UHLMAN

On Nicholls win:

"They are motivated for sure. Their guy came out and threw a bunch of strikes. I'm not sure if the zone was a little wide to start and narrowed up a little bit, but our guys were having a hard time with whatever the lighting was. There was a sign in center field that had white on it, but I don' think we acclimated fast enough. We struck out a bunch, more than we have all year, but we got settled in and got rewarded for some softer contact and walks and those kind of things. We stemmed the tide. Our pitching kept us. J.D. (Rodriguez) went out and did what he did and then the bullpen came in and established itself and allowed us to settle in and run the offense."

On Cehajic moving up to Saturday and what has impressed him the most:

"It's just him taking what he did all fall and bringing it into the season. For me it's a lot like Chandler Welch last year. Chandler had good and bad results for the first couple of years, and then the kind of fall that Chandler had he was able to take that into the spring, and Trey is following suit that way. He went out in the summer and started and got another pitch. He's found the strike zone with all his pitches, and because he's doing that and he's physically imposing, his smaller misses tend to get swing and miss. He's doing a nice job of attacking the hitters, and our ability to get on the scoreboard frequently allows our staff to pin their ears back and go for it."

On fastball speed:

"He gets up to 95."

On career at McClellan JC, where he did not play at all for two years before becoming a closer in his third:

"He was an infielder by trade ironically at that height, and he moves that way. He moves like an athletic infielder even with his size 18 shoes. and when he became a pitcher, you don't just become a pitcher. There's a lot of nuances that come with that. He had to go through some things, but the thing we liked about his numbers at McClennan were his walks were low and his strikeouts were higher than his innings pitched. There were some indications this was a guy that we could use. We were coming into a season where we were super thin on pitching, so we were trying to collect bodies with his physical attributes and trying to make it better than what we had little bit by litter bit. For us and for him it's turned into the tutelage of Izz and Frankie (Niemann) to Trey and Trey taking that information and utilizing it, has kind of turned into what it is today."

On if that inexperience explains his ups and downs last year:

"You have to equate it to that. He started out at the back end of the bullpen, lost his way here and there but never really kind of regained a semblance of a traditional role. I'm just proud as heck of him and the staff that got him in a position where he's maximizing his ability."

On strikeout numbers:

"It's tremendous. He's gone out there two starts and had a no-hitter through five in the first one and gave up two hits through five in the second one. That sixth inning and getting him beyond that is kind of the next step, but the fact that our offense has been extremely efficient in providing insurance and leads for our pitching staff, it allows them to pin their ears back and not have to be perfect. Those are big recipes for successful pitching--a good offense, too. You don't always feel like you have to be perfect. You are going to give up some hits and get punched in the mouth, but for us to have the ability to extend some leads and get them some separation is part of the recipe for Trey's success, but Trey has created his own success."

On him having to work hard to be guaranteed any role as a senior:

"We brought in six guys before we started up again in January and talked to them all about, OK, here's the reality of the situation, we've got four spots pretty much, maybe a fifth every now and then, and you six guys, those that do it are going to get the opportunities. For him to not get what he wanted in the exit meetings (2024) and brush that off and go, OK, I get what I need to do, I understand the whys, I'm going to go out and do it, I'm really proud of him. If you know him at all like the makeup part of that, a loyal kid, he really works his butt off. He's coachable and great in the classroom. There are so many things that are good about him."

On Luc Fladda not being sharp in first two games:

"I would say 16 strikeouts is an improvement for him. He's struck out a lot more guys. The thing about Luc is I always say he's unflappable. He's going to give up hard contact. He's going to give up home runs. He's going to give up some runs, but the thing about him is he's going to get us at least through five in almost every outing that he has unless he just gets bombarded and we have to get him out. The fact that he's gone out and improved his strikeouts, the changeup has been a pitch that he's really improved a lot. He throws that any count. It's a swing and miss pitch, so it's been a separator for him. And Friday nights are Friday nights. Everybody is keyed up to play. You're under the lights. He's not scared of that, so when he goes out there, we feel great about what he's going to give us every time he's out there."

On Sunday starter:

"Yeah, it's the old famous TBD starting pitcher. It could be a whole combination. It could be (Will) Clements. It could be (Blaise) Wilcenski. It could be back to J.D. It could be Garrett Payne. There are some guys that go out and fill that role that we just run out there. Again, the analytics don't like going through (the lineup) three times. It's a bullpen game."

On AAC doing well in non-conference:

"It's really early so the RPI is unbalanced at this point, but the fact is the conference's wins to loss mark is probably at the best place it's been in four to five years. The thing it's creating is margin for error with several of the teams in our league to where you don't have to real off seven in a row. You can absorb stubbing your toe and still be in a really good position. I'm really pleased with how our conference has played in the early part of this non-conference slate. It's going to help us."

On averaging nearly 10 runs and what impresses him the most:

"Just the way we conduct our bats. When we get pitches in the zone, more frequently we're going to make good contact, base-hit contact. We're going to run pitch counts from the othe team up, which gets into their bullpen faster and then we see the same recycled arms come back Sunday after throwing Friday. We put stress on the opposing pitching staffs that we're not going to just chase when they throw it out of the zone. They have to pitch to us, and we have good bat-to-ball skill. We're fifth in the country right now in doubles, which doesn't surprise me. We're not going to have five guys hit 10-plus homers, but what we have been able to do is move the line, get guys in order and then bring them in with a variety of different weapons, whether it's the safety bunt or the sac fly or the base hit or the double, a walk, a hit-by-pitch. We're able to manufacture runs at a clip that's been really impressive."