A couple weeks back Guerry wrote an excellent “over or under” article predicting Tulane would win fewer than 5 ½ games. Many Tulane fans seem to be expecting about six wins this year and a bowl appearance. Some are predicting as many as 8 or more and some, on the other end, are suggesting a 3 win season. Most of the magazines and “professionals” are going with the latter with some going as low as 1 win and others ranging from 2 to 4. Very few (but some) give us much chance to go bowling. And looking at our squad, it’s hard to disagree.
The OFFENSE: We are woefully inexperienced and/or simply not very good at what I think are the two most important positions—the offensive line and QB.
We have three experienced offensive linemen (Diaz, Taylor, and Jaquet) and none of them have been better than average (G5 average, not BCS-wide average). We’re missing a proven left tackle and the guys vying for the two remaining slots in the line have shown nothing to this point in their Tulane careers.
At QB, the question mark is gigantic. And, in Coach Fritz offense, the decision-making ability at this position is critical. Powell? Cuiellette? Bradwell? Brantley? None of them give anyone much confidence to this point.
Our wide receiving corps returns Encalade who missed last year after a so-so freshman campaign and Devon Breaux who can’t seem to decide if he even wants to play. He missed spring practices, so that didn’t help learning a new offense. Everyone else is unproven.
Our tight ends are clearly better than in previous years, but none are major receiving threats and their blocking has been suspect all along. Of course, in the Fritz offense, blocking is their primary responsibility.
Only at RB are we well stocked. Hilliard is a proven three down back and Badie has tremendous potential to break gains with the ball in his hands. But neither is big enough to be the “pound it out” between-the-tackles guy. Thompson, of course, is. To me, Rounds is far behind these three but is a serviceable backup. Even here, however, we’re not talking All Americans or dominant P5 type performers. We have three guys who, with enough carries could be All-AAC players in my opinion and might eventually be late round draft choices or free agents in the NFL. But without a greatly improved line or some kind of passing game, can they succeed against 8 and 9 man fronts?
The DEFENSE: To me we have one proven player on the defensive line—Tanzel Smart. He’s an all-Conference guy who I think will play on Sundays. Sean Wilson looked pretty good last year playing about half the time and for the fourth year in a row, we’ll be looking for Ade Aruna to fulfill his potential. Who plays the other end or backs up the starters across the entire line is still a question mark. We’ve got names, of course, but no assurance of success.
At linebacker, our two undersized seniors, Nico Marley and Eric Thomas, may get more out of their physical tools than anyone else on the team. Both run to the ball but overrun too many plays. They never give up but are only ordinary at covering either tight ends or backs out of the backfield. Still, they provide solid play against our current level of competition. Zack Harris, Marbley, and Bowie have been inconsistent but have the potential to provide good backup play.
In the defensive backfield, only Parry Nickerson has put together a solid year; and that was two years ago. Last year, he was at best average. Jarod Franklin, Leonard Davis, Donnie Lewis, Roderick Teamer, Taris Shennell, and Richard Allen all have untapped potential, but it needs to come together this year for success.
SPECIAL TEAMS: We have no proven punter, kicker, snapper, holder, kickoff specialist, punt returner or kickoff returner. Why would anyone think our special teams will be any good? The ONLY reason is Willie Fritz, who will personally handle special teams. It’s hard to be worse than the last couple of years, so improvement is almost assured. But, how much is really possible considering or personnel?
In fact, Willie Fritz and staff are the only reason anyone should hope for more than 2-3 wins this season. The talent, in my view, is simply that bad. But, with a new offense and improved technique, I expect the offensive line to improve dramatically. I think we’ll be able to get our backs into open areas for big gains, and I think our running game will help the passing game, whoever is the QB. On defense, I have faith in our coaches to get the most out of our players and to establish the kind of discipline we’ve lacked for several years. And Willie Fritz is a magician on special teams. So, despite the talent shortage, I think that will also improve.
Also, I like a number of our incoming freshmen. A good “contest” might be to have everyone on the site predict the starters for our homecoming game. I'd guess it will be very different than we'll see against Wake Forest.
In my lifetime, I can remember only four football coaches who came to Tulane with previous head coaching experience. Bennie Ellender came to Tulane from Arkansas State where he’d gone 52-20-4 over 8 years. He proceeded to go 27-29 in five years with the Wave. Mack Brown had a one year stint at Appalachian State (6-5) before coming to Tulane where he went 11-23. Vince Gibson had coached at Kansas State and more recently at Louisville before coming to Tulane. His 17-17 record with the Wave actually improved his overall win percentage which, when complete, stood at 75-98-2. Bob Toledo had 13 years of head coaching experience at UC Riverdale, Pacific, and UCLA with a combined record of 78-68, but hadn’t been a head coach for 5 years. At Tulane, he went 15-40.
So, now, in comes Willie Fritz. He’s had more experience as a head coach than any of his predecessors, and more success. He also has more energy than guys like Bob Toledo (then again, who doesn’t?). He and his staff are the reasons for optimism this year despite the shortcomings I cited above. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t leave Tulane with a better record than any of the coaches I’ve mentioned—a lot better record. Whether that starts this year, the jury is still out. But I think his presence is worth at least 2-3 games, so I think we’ll go somewhere between 4 and 6 wins; If force to bet, I’d say 5. Prove me wrong and run the table.
Roll Wave!!!
