Can the Baseball Season be Salvaged?
- By WaveON
- Joe Kennedy's Wave Crest
- 60 Replies
I played a lot of baseball in my youth and since then I’ve watched literally thousands of high school, college, minor league, and major league games. If there is a game close by, I try to go; if it’s on TV or the computer, I watch it. I love the game and, thanks to the numerous on-line options, have watched almost every pitch of the Wave this season. Frankly, we haven’t played very well. That said, I recognize that a season can turn very quickly. For example, last year the LA Dodgers were on pace to win the most games ever in a single season when, all of a sudden, they lost 16 of 18, including 11 in a row. It happens. But we’ve now passed the half-way point of our season and sit at (12 -17 ). It would take a major turn around to even compete for a regional slot in the post season.
Based on my calculations and backed up by “Boyd’s World’s RPI Needs Report,” we need to win 33 games (33-23) to get into the top 50 from an RPI standpoint prior to the AAC tournament. That’s going 21-6 the rest of the year—a “tough putt” in anybody’s book. Moreover, we’d need to win at least twice in the AAC tourney to retain that relative RPI position. With what would have to be a strong second half of the season and a very good conference record, an RPI in the mid-40’s, even high 40’s, would probably get us in, though nothing is guaranteed at this point. Of course we’d have to play much better. Currently, we’re not playing well in any phase of the game.
Hitting: We’re hitting .251 as a team with only 13 HR’s. In the past 45 years we’ve only batted lower on two occasions-- .250 in 2013 and .226 in 2014. At our current rate of homers, we could finish with the third lowest total in over 40 years also. Beyond that, we’re on essentially the same strike out pace as last year’s record breaking season, without the power or average. We’ve also only got one .300 hitter thus far, Witherspoon at .311. Others, who were hitting in the .300’s for a while, have fallen into major slumps. Artigues is 5 for his last 35 (.143); Hoese is 2 for his last 22 (.091); Rowland is 3 for 26 and Gozzo is 6 for 38 (.115 and .158 respectively). Owen (.145) and Heinrich (.194) are in season-long slumps. On the positive side, both Jensen and Ty Johnson have been hitting well lately going 10 for 31 (.323) and 6 for 16 (.375) respectively. Mathews is 4 for his last 9 and Bedgood had two three-hit games (in 11 at bats) over the weekend against USF. But, since the Purdue series we’re hitting .218 as a team and if you take out the 16-hit anomaly against Long Beach, we’re hitting .198 over that stretch. We are hitting .367 when we put the first strike in play but our early season success has waned when batting with two strikes. We’re now only hitting .169 with 2 strikes thanks to striking out fully half of the time once we get to that count. We’d need great pitching to make up for this lack of hitting and we’re not getting anything close to that.
Pitching: Most regional teams have at least six pitchers they can generally count on: four starters and two relievers with a number of others who can grab innings here and there. If you don’t count Issa and Koppenhaver who have thrown a combine 2 2/3 innings, we have only two pitchers with ERA’s below 4.00, Roper (3.73) and Gillies (2.59). Having watched almost every pitch this season, I think Roper, Gillies, Pellerin, McAffer, Bates, and Bjorngjeld are our only pitchers with at least one “plus” pitch. Sadly, some of them can’t find the plate with it. Even in his rookie year, I didn’t think Massey had great stuff, but that year he had magnificent control—not just for balls and strikes, but placement within the strike zone. For whatever reason, that has long since left. Opponents are hitting .271 against us, but, as a group, Massey, Soleski, Johnson, White, Price, Campbell, and Cellucci are being hit around at a .357 clip. Our team ERA of 5.66 is matched by the same number in 2010 and only exceeded by last year’s 5.72. With the better teams we will be facing, that record (worst in 28 years) could be threatened. Also, between walks and hit batsmen, we’re on a pace to issues 366 “free passes,” second only to last year’s 377, the most in Tulane history. Something has to change.
Fielding: Our .976 fielding average belies a lot of generous scoring and some less than stellar efforts in the field. And, of course, it’s come down significantly from the early days of the season when we were fielding at .980+. I followed our guys in summer ball and Gozzo, Artigues, Hoese, and Galy all started their respective seasons at shortstop. All but Galy were moved to 2nd base after making far too many errors and not covering enough ground. Galy may still be our best defensive infielder but he hasn’t shown the ability to hit. Gozzo hasn’t been terrible by any means but for a team used to the two Cannizaros, Manzella, and Alemais, he doesn’t compare favorably. He also can’t hit like any of those guys. Artigues, bless his effort, is only a marginal second baseman. For a centerfielder, I think Witherspoon has been serviceable, but in my view, he’s really a corner outfielder out of position. Of course, I’m not sure we have any solid corner outfielders outside of Kobi Owen and Heinrich, who I think are both pretty good defensively. At catcher, Owen has been better than I expected and many of the stolen bases against him can be attributed to the pitchers. But as a team, we’re not much better than average defensively—not good enough considering our other failings.
Coaching: Many Tulane fans have been all over Coach Jewett for his “in game” decisions (or lack therof). I’m less critical. I suspect none of us, surely not me, knows all of the calculations involved in making a pitching change, for example. Clearly the coach must anticipate a new pitcher will do better than the one he considers replacing. But, what he may know and we don’t is how the reliever is throwing in the pen. As noted before, many of our pitchers get “lit up” on a regular basis. I’d certainly think twice before bringing any of them into a game. Leaving a guy in too long when he is still the best option may not be a bad decision. And, exactly how does one rearrange the deck chairs of our hitters when we’ve got less than a handful that can hit? It’s hard to win with lack of talent and we seem to have an overabundance of that.
Of course, the proof is in the winning. And we are not. Coach Jewett and staff have to be held accountable for that. I can forgive a bad recruiting year in the first cycle. That’s clearly tough. I thought this second year’s recruiting looked much better on paper especially before several of our better prospects, Braeden Barrett, Caden Doga, Andrew Gorham, and others, failed to turn up. As a group, our freshmen pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.91. Our transfers have an ERA of 5.36. On the offensive side our “new guy” transfers are hitting .231 and our freshmen are hitting .215. Despite oft-discussed and well-known limitations on this front, we’ve got to recruit better than that. And, to make matters worse, our returning players aren't performing all that well. Returning pitchers have an ERA of 5.68 as a group and our veteran hitters are batting .262. Those numbers won't cut it either. At the end of the year, Coach Jewett and his staff must be measured on their performance, just like everyone else who draws a paycheck in any walk of life. We'll see.
As to my initial question: Can the season be salvaged? I doubt it.
Roll Wave!!!
Based on my calculations and backed up by “Boyd’s World’s RPI Needs Report,” we need to win 33 games (33-23) to get into the top 50 from an RPI standpoint prior to the AAC tournament. That’s going 21-6 the rest of the year—a “tough putt” in anybody’s book. Moreover, we’d need to win at least twice in the AAC tourney to retain that relative RPI position. With what would have to be a strong second half of the season and a very good conference record, an RPI in the mid-40’s, even high 40’s, would probably get us in, though nothing is guaranteed at this point. Of course we’d have to play much better. Currently, we’re not playing well in any phase of the game.
Hitting: We’re hitting .251 as a team with only 13 HR’s. In the past 45 years we’ve only batted lower on two occasions-- .250 in 2013 and .226 in 2014. At our current rate of homers, we could finish with the third lowest total in over 40 years also. Beyond that, we’re on essentially the same strike out pace as last year’s record breaking season, without the power or average. We’ve also only got one .300 hitter thus far, Witherspoon at .311. Others, who were hitting in the .300’s for a while, have fallen into major slumps. Artigues is 5 for his last 35 (.143); Hoese is 2 for his last 22 (.091); Rowland is 3 for 26 and Gozzo is 6 for 38 (.115 and .158 respectively). Owen (.145) and Heinrich (.194) are in season-long slumps. On the positive side, both Jensen and Ty Johnson have been hitting well lately going 10 for 31 (.323) and 6 for 16 (.375) respectively. Mathews is 4 for his last 9 and Bedgood had two three-hit games (in 11 at bats) over the weekend against USF. But, since the Purdue series we’re hitting .218 as a team and if you take out the 16-hit anomaly against Long Beach, we’re hitting .198 over that stretch. We are hitting .367 when we put the first strike in play but our early season success has waned when batting with two strikes. We’re now only hitting .169 with 2 strikes thanks to striking out fully half of the time once we get to that count. We’d need great pitching to make up for this lack of hitting and we’re not getting anything close to that.
Pitching: Most regional teams have at least six pitchers they can generally count on: four starters and two relievers with a number of others who can grab innings here and there. If you don’t count Issa and Koppenhaver who have thrown a combine 2 2/3 innings, we have only two pitchers with ERA’s below 4.00, Roper (3.73) and Gillies (2.59). Having watched almost every pitch this season, I think Roper, Gillies, Pellerin, McAffer, Bates, and Bjorngjeld are our only pitchers with at least one “plus” pitch. Sadly, some of them can’t find the plate with it. Even in his rookie year, I didn’t think Massey had great stuff, but that year he had magnificent control—not just for balls and strikes, but placement within the strike zone. For whatever reason, that has long since left. Opponents are hitting .271 against us, but, as a group, Massey, Soleski, Johnson, White, Price, Campbell, and Cellucci are being hit around at a .357 clip. Our team ERA of 5.66 is matched by the same number in 2010 and only exceeded by last year’s 5.72. With the better teams we will be facing, that record (worst in 28 years) could be threatened. Also, between walks and hit batsmen, we’re on a pace to issues 366 “free passes,” second only to last year’s 377, the most in Tulane history. Something has to change.
Fielding: Our .976 fielding average belies a lot of generous scoring and some less than stellar efforts in the field. And, of course, it’s come down significantly from the early days of the season when we were fielding at .980+. I followed our guys in summer ball and Gozzo, Artigues, Hoese, and Galy all started their respective seasons at shortstop. All but Galy were moved to 2nd base after making far too many errors and not covering enough ground. Galy may still be our best defensive infielder but he hasn’t shown the ability to hit. Gozzo hasn’t been terrible by any means but for a team used to the two Cannizaros, Manzella, and Alemais, he doesn’t compare favorably. He also can’t hit like any of those guys. Artigues, bless his effort, is only a marginal second baseman. For a centerfielder, I think Witherspoon has been serviceable, but in my view, he’s really a corner outfielder out of position. Of course, I’m not sure we have any solid corner outfielders outside of Kobi Owen and Heinrich, who I think are both pretty good defensively. At catcher, Owen has been better than I expected and many of the stolen bases against him can be attributed to the pitchers. But as a team, we’re not much better than average defensively—not good enough considering our other failings.
Coaching: Many Tulane fans have been all over Coach Jewett for his “in game” decisions (or lack therof). I’m less critical. I suspect none of us, surely not me, knows all of the calculations involved in making a pitching change, for example. Clearly the coach must anticipate a new pitcher will do better than the one he considers replacing. But, what he may know and we don’t is how the reliever is throwing in the pen. As noted before, many of our pitchers get “lit up” on a regular basis. I’d certainly think twice before bringing any of them into a game. Leaving a guy in too long when he is still the best option may not be a bad decision. And, exactly how does one rearrange the deck chairs of our hitters when we’ve got less than a handful that can hit? It’s hard to win with lack of talent and we seem to have an overabundance of that.
Of course, the proof is in the winning. And we are not. Coach Jewett and staff have to be held accountable for that. I can forgive a bad recruiting year in the first cycle. That’s clearly tough. I thought this second year’s recruiting looked much better on paper especially before several of our better prospects, Braeden Barrett, Caden Doga, Andrew Gorham, and others, failed to turn up. As a group, our freshmen pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.91. Our transfers have an ERA of 5.36. On the offensive side our “new guy” transfers are hitting .231 and our freshmen are hitting .215. Despite oft-discussed and well-known limitations on this front, we’ve got to recruit better than that. And, to make matters worse, our returning players aren't performing all that well. Returning pitchers have an ERA of 5.68 as a group and our veteran hitters are batting .262. Those numbers won't cut it either. At the end of the year, Coach Jewett and his staff must be measured on their performance, just like everyone else who draws a paycheck in any walk of life. We'll see.
As to my initial question: Can the season be salvaged? I doubt it.
Roll Wave!!!