Hearing rumors that Coach Schloss is being strongly considered for the head coaching position at Ms. State. Suspect he may be tired of the private school problem of getting parents to foot a significant portion of their tuition to attend TCU or any other expensive private school for that matter.

By national signing day next February, roughly 3,000 high school seniors will have signed football grant-in-aid contracts with Bowl Championship Series (BCS) schools. With early signing day roughly seven months away, about 500 kids have committed to one of the 129 colleges and universities who make up the BCS. If recent history is any guide and ignoring the definition of “commitment,” 100 or more of those 500 will probably change their mind over the next few months and eventually sign elsewhere.

Going into an important recruiting weekend (the joint camp with LSU), at least according to the recruiting services and independent twitter accounts, Tulane has offered something over 300 soon-to-be high school seniors. Of those, about 30 have committed elsewhere (though, as noted above, those “commitments” may or may not be final). Last year we offered just over 400 kids and eventually signed 25. We also had seven more who de-committed from Tulane either because they perceived better opportunities somewhere else or were encouraged by our staff to look elsewhere. At this point it hardly makes a difference.

To date, I’m unaware of any commitments to the Wave but would expect a few starting in June. But I find it interesting to look at who our offers have gone to and where they live. The best I can tell, we’ve offered at least 54 players from Louisiana. I’d guess we’ll add another 10-20 offers in-state. Since the state produces about 100 BCS scholarships annually and I’d venture that roughly half (50 or so) have the potential we really need, that sounds about right to me. I’d hate to see us take the lower level BCS or FCS players that dotted the rosters when Curtis Johnson and Jason Rollins ran recruiting.

We’ve also offered a number of kids from other states: Texas (58), Georgia (56), Florida (55), Alabama 30), Tennessee (21) Mississippi (15), Nevada (3), and one each from California, Washington DC, Maryland, Missouri, Arkansas, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. That appears to be a good sampling across our primary recruiting area with a few others tossed into the mix.

By position, we’ve offered every position: QB (18), RB (36), WR (35), TE (10), OL (31), DE (37), DT (13), LB (35), DB (69), and Athlete (16). Some of the wide receivers and defensive backs in particular could play the other position and many of the “athletes” play QB in high school but presumably don’t have the arm to play there in college. Since I think we need at least two tight ends this year I’m a little surprised at the low number offered to date but 6’4” 245# tight ends who can run (essentially what we’d like) are few and far between.

Anyway, many of our current “offers” may not be “actionable,” meaning we would not accept their commitment at this time—but who knows? And like I noted in the beginning, many of our offerees will eliminate us from consideration and go elsewhere. Others we will eliminate as we narrow our focus and begin to receive commitments.

We need to sign kids who are in the top half of signees in their state; that would be kids normally expected to go to P5 schools and would certainly put us at or near the top of the AAC in recruiting.

Roll Wave!!!

Willie Fritz retweeted his commitment today, and I got it confirmed.

Spears is a 5-10, 175-pound RB who is in the Rivals and 247 Sports databases but does not have any stars to this point. He did not have any offers from big schools, but I'm sure Tulane's coaches had him in the camp at the Saints facility on Sunday and really like what they see from him.

Ponchatoula had no defense last year and went 2-8. The year before, the Green Wave (they share the nickname with Tulane) went 10-2 and reached the second round of the state playoffs. The coach is Hank Tierney, the long-time Shaw coach who won a state championship while he was there. Spears competed in the 100-meter dash for Ponchatoula at the Class 5A Region II track meet, finishing behind Dorian Camel.

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/tyjae-spears-222580

While researching Tulane’s recruiting for 2019, I ran across Joe Girard from Glens Falls High School in New York. We’ve evidently offered him as a QB though he’s only a 2-star according to Rivals and he’s not in the football data base for 247. His Hudl highlights are pretty good and he completed 66% of his passes for 24 TDs as a junior while rushing for 587 yards and 7 TD’s in 87 carries. But more interesting is that he wants to play two sports in college—the other being basketball. In basketball, as a shooting guard, he was named the high school player of the year by USA Today for the state of New York. He averaged 50 points a game (50—not a typo) for the season setting the state’s all-time record and has been offered by everyone (Duke, Michigan, Syracuse, etc. ) including Tulane for basketball.

Do we have a shot? Probably not. My guess is he’ll pass on football in college and go somewhere with a shot at a national championship. But, who knows?

Roll Wave!!!!

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CouFBcFFY48

Another year is in the books and Tulane has suffered back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in over 50 years. The pitching coach is gone (good riddance) and, for good or ill, Coach Jewett will apparently be staying for at least one more year. It should be a “put up or be gone” season.

Most of us think making a regional is the least we should expect from a Tulane baseball team. To do so, we need to win our conference tournament or be considered one of the best 45 or so teams in the country since roughly 20 teams who would never make the tournament do so as conference champions.

This year, pitching, the most important factor in baseball to my way of thinking, may have been better than last year but still abysmal. Yet neither our hitting, which improved dramatically over the year, nor fielding was, in my opinion, close to the top 45 in the country. All require improvement if we really expect to compete for conference championships or NCAA at large berths.

So, what about next year? What are our potential strengths and weaknesses? Witherspoon is almost a sure departure. That’s a big loss. He was undoubtedly our most effective hitter with a good eye and power. I thought his base running left something to be desired and while he wasn’t a good centerfielder, he was still probably our best outfielder.

I personally see question marks in the field at every position, starting with the outfield.

Outfield: We have five returning outfielders, each of whom showed potential at various times but none of them were particularly good defensively nor hit consistently. Heinrich (.161), Bedgood (.242), Glancy (.227), Sepcich (.111), and Kobi Owen (.214) were a combined 70 for 347 (.202) with 8 HR’s and 116 strikeouts. That clearly won’t cut it. I think Owen, Glancy, and Bedgood each have the chance for major improvement but would we consider moving someone else to the outfield? Ty Johnson, who hit .282 with 0 HR’s in a year marred by injuries, would be an obvious possibility since he played there this season. But, if healthy, would he take more turns at catcher? What about Artigues? He’s not a very good 2nd baseman and if an incoming freshman could play there, would he move to the outfield? And, though I consider it a long shot, what about Mathews or Jensen? Although Jensen came here as a 3rd baseman, and, I thought played well at 1st, we need both he and Mathews in the lineup. Mathews could play 1st and open up the DH position for an incoming player. Then, of course, incoming freshmen could hold the key.

Shortstop: I thought Gozzo played pretty well defensively this year but he doesn’t have the range or arm I’d like to see. Regardless, his defense isn’t good enough to make up for a .225 batting average. We need improvement in this area. As an aside, with no inside knowledge, it wouldn’t shock me if he transferred to Connecticut to redshirt and play his final two years with his brother. Would Coach Jewett consider moving Hoese back to shortstop if, say, Jensen could play 3rd? Bedgood also came here as a 3rd baseman.

3rd Base: I was happy with Hoese’s progress this year. I think as he fills out and gets stronger he will become even more of a HR threat (.5 this year along with a .291 batting average). If he doesn’t move to shortstop, I think we’re pretty solid at 3rd.

2nd Base: Artigues is an aggressive, can-do kind of player that every coach and fan loves and his offense has been sufficient to make up for his defensive failings. Yet, he strikes out too much and is overly aggressive at the plate, swinging at pitches early in the count that he should take. I love hitting the first good pitch because you may not see another, but swinging at the first pitch when it is unhittable ( a ball or a “pitcher’s pitch”) reduces chances of success. He needs to improve defensively as well as become a little more patient at bat. Still another year hitting like he did this year would be welcome. I expect he’ll be in the lineup somewhere but if we get someone who can hit and play 2nd, it might be in the outfield.

1st Base: We’re set at 1st base with Jensen (.306 and 9 HR’s) and Mathews (.347 and 4 Hr’s, in limited duty). Both will be in the lineup probably at 1st and DH but, as mentioned before, I wouldn’t be shocked if one of them found another position to open up the DH spot for someone else (as yet to be identified)

Catcher: Owen (.203 and 2 HR’s) was a disappointment at the plate this year and his fielding was even worse. He had too many passed balls and should have been able to block more of our many wild pitches. I tend to blame the pitcher for stolen bases, but he didn’t do much of a job there either. Nieman went 4 for 4 over a three week stretch of “spot duty” in mid-season but was 1 for 18 the rest of the year. Can either of them improve enough to make catcher a strength? If healthy, Ty Johnson could help a great deal but on researching the situation, neither he nor Owen played more than half their games in JC or summer ball. We do have two incoming freshmen plus Jake Revere who will be a redshirt freshmen available to compete.

Pitching: Pitching this season was bad in every respect. As a group, they had a .867 fielding percentage replete with misplayed bunts, throws to the wrong base, and wild throws to first base on balls fielded on the mound or attempted pickoffs. Too many runners stole bases against our pitchers without even a throw attempted. That’s bad. Add to that our abysmal 5.42 ERA, opponents’ .272 batting average, and horrific 6.4 free passes (walks and hit batters) per 9 innings and the verdict is clear—Guilty!

So what do we need? Ideally a team would have four starters who could consistently go 6 innings a game; that’s 84 innings in a season. This year, Gillies threw 80.1 innings, the most on our staff.
Then you would like at least three relievers who could go 1 to 2 innings twice a week; that's 42 innings in a season. That would give you about 460 innings or roughly 90% of the year’s total. This year, our top seven pitchers totaled a little over 75% of our innings with a 4.90 ERA, leaving 25% to guys whose combined ERA was 7.52. A good team needs to get more innings and more success from their “top 7.”

So, who are our top seven next year? An early guess would be Gillies, Roper, Johnson, and Bates as starters since that’s how they ended the season. Their combined ERA was 4.34, not great, but an indicator of why they were the starters. If they can improve and a newcomer could break into the starting four, we might have four starters plus a 5th starter/reliever as a core group.

To me Pellerin has the best “stuff” on the staff; his movement on the ball is outstanding. He’s the only one with more strikeouts than innings and opponents only hit .234 against him (3rd best). But he walked or hit 47 batters in 44 innings—beyond atrocious. If he can get his “stuff” under control, he could be the closer we really need. McAffer, too, has “good stuff” but 26 walks and 12 wild pitches in 28 innings pretty much defines his problem. Worse, when he gets behind he tend to let up and “groove” the ball resulting in a .301 batting average against him. If he and Pellerin could cut the walks to about 4 per 9 innings (not great but less than half the current rate), they would be solid “bull pen” guys.

The rest of the guys on the staff don’t appear to “have it” though I hold out hope for Massey and Solesky, if either or both return next year. Yet, opponents batted .350 against Massey and .366 against Solesky and they both continued to offer far too many free passes (46 in 57.1 innings between them).

Next year will require a lot of improvement primarily in the pitching staff and some “break out” performances in the batter’s box. We also need some of the newcomers, particularly pitchers, to carry some of next year’s load. Until then…

Roll Wave!!

I believe Tulane is in the tougher half of the bracket, but often these things don't go as predicted, so it probably doesn't matter. Examples of teams with zero momentum going a long way or winning the tournament are commonplace in college baseball, but it almost never has happened to Tulane.

The last time the Green Wave entered a tournament with no chance to get an at-large bid and won the tournament to get in automatically was 1992, and that tournament was played at home. In the stretch of eight seasons out of the last 11 when Tulane stayed home for the postseason, it never won more than two games in the conference tournament and won its opener only once, in 2012, when I covered the event for this site in Pearl, Miss. but missed the first game, getting there in time to watch the Wave lose the next two in that stupid round-robin format CUSA had for a few years.

Yet, in 2008, when Tulane hosted the CUSA tourney and I covered every game for AP (it has been a long time since AP covered a college baseball tournament; the times have changed), bottom-seeded Marshall made the tourney championship game and lost to No. 4 Houston 3-2 in the championship game. Last year, last-place ECU made it to the championship game. Why doesn't stuff like that ever happen for Tulane?

There's nothing to indicate Tulane will make a run this year, but there never is anything to indicate a bottom seed will make a run before it happens. I'll say this: despite Tulane's awful pitching, it has the starting depth to do it this time unlike last year, when it was impossible to visualize a path in the winner's bracket the way the starters were pitching at the end of the year.

Tuesday starter Keagan Gillies has proven several times this year that he can keep teams off the scoreboard. He has not pitched well his last two outings, but he threw a complete-game gem against UConn in his previous start.

Second-game starter Kaleb Roper, he of the terrific stuff and the lack of numbers to back it up, has allowed one run over the last 11 innings covering two starts.

Trent Johnson, who will start the third game if Tulane is still alive, held a motivated UCF team to two hits in 7.1 innings Friday. He's had a rough year overall, but he is capable of coming up big.

I'm not as optimistic about No. 4 starter Josh Bates, but few teams have a reliable No. 4 starter. He pitched well against Houston earlier this year and has good stuff when he attacks the plate, which he usually has not.

At the plate, Tulane has one of the hottest hitters in recent memory. Grant Mathews has seven consecutive games with two or more hits. Trevor Jensen has been a tough out for a month and has good power. Grant Witherspoon wants to end his college career with a bang. Kody Hoese came out out of recent slump last week. and Luke Glancy is swinging the bat well. The problems come at the bottom of the lineup, where Tyler Heinrichs is 3 for his last 43 and Sal Gozzo is 4 for his last 36. They are rally stoppers, particularly Heinrichs, who appears helpless at the plate. It would be huge if Ty Johnson could play effectively in Clearwater, but from what I've heard about his injured foot, that's not likely.

Look for Houston to pitch Aaron Fletcher on Tuesday. He has the team's best ERA by far (1.82), and normal opening starter Trey Cumbie threw 96 pitchers against Southeastern on Thursday while Fletcher pitched short relief Friday. Clearly, the Cougars plan to go with Fletcher first and then have Cumbie pitch on his normal week's rest if they win the opener. Tulane fared OK against Fletcher at Turchin, getting eight hits (all singles) and two runs in six innings, but he is capable of shutting down anyone if he is on. He does not have overpowering stuff, but sharp lefties usually give this team fits.

I still believe East Carolina, the 4 seed, is the best team in the league. I'm not impressed with the Pirates' ace, but he presumably will throw against UCF, the No. 5 seed, on Wednesday, and Tulane struggled to do much of anything against the rest of the staff. UCF's staff is deep, too.

For Tulane, the path to success involves Gillies outdueling Fletcher--Houston is one of the weakest hitting teams in the league--to get in the winners' bracket, then having a sharp Roper against ECU or UCF. If the Wave won that one, it would be in good position with Trent Johnson or Josh Bates pitching to get it into the championship game. I actually think they might go with Bates in that game, hoping to save Johnson for the championship game and having him available for the final winner's bracket game if they lost with Bates.

Connor Pellerin is fairly reliable out of the pen. After him, it's pitch and pray.

My official prediction for Tulane is back-to-back losses against Houston and either ECU or UCF. What we've seen this season indicates that as the most likely path. But I certainly think it is possible for the Wave to beat Houston in the opener, which would change everything. Everyone can beat everyone in the tournament. The regular season proved it.

I learned Ty Johnson and David Bedgood will be game-time decisions. Bedgood did not practice yesterday and could barely run when he played against UCF on Friday. Johnson has a bad foot that had not really healed, limiting his effectiveness and forcing him to try to play through tremendous discomfort.

If either one of them could play, Tulane would be able to sit the ice cold Tyler Heinrichs, who is 3 for his last 43. I'd be shocked if Bedgood, a defensive liability in the outfield when healthy, starts today. Johnson might give it a go in right field, with Luke Glancy in left field. Glancy is 6 for his last 13 after going 5 for 42 until that point. He hit a home run in the first game of Friday's doubleheader.

Johnson has started only three of 11 games in May but is still swinging the bat OK. It's just a matter of pain tolerance and movement in the outfield since they can't play him at DH with the way Grant Mathews is hitting.

In the middle of final exams two weeks ago, Tulane junior center fielder Grant Witherspoon sat down for a 25-minute interview. This is probably going to be his final season at Tulane--Baseball America recently ranked him the No. 154 prospect in the Major League draft--and he wants to end what has been an outstanding individual year with a bang.

Here is the transcript:

You have a decision to make about going pro or returning for your senior year. What are your thoughts right now?

"Going in this offseason, a lot of people try not to think about it that much, but I want to play at the next level and what can I do to get myself better so that not only can I get to the next level, but I want to do well at the next level. Sometimes my mind starts to drift towards that when I see people in the stands, but all I can do is play. I think about when I’m training so that I can get better. I want to be good once I start my pro career."

Have you decided to leave?

"I hired an advisor, so he pretty much handles all that. I’m definitely looking forward to the next step."

What helped you the most in the offseason?

"I feel like freshman and sophomore year I was all right, but I was pretty streaky. Then I got an opportunity to play in the Cape (Cod League), and when I got there the pitching was a lot better. I just made a lot of adjustments based off of that, and I made adjustments in my swing during the season in the Cape, which is probably something you shouldn’t do when there are a bunch of scouts at every game. I feel like I needed it, and after the Cape I was feeling better and better, and in the offseason every single day I worked on it with (student assistant) Jarret DeHart and just got really comfortable with it, and now it’s just showing up because I’m seeing pitches better and am really confident."

You look like a complete player, taking pitches when they are not over the plate instead of getting impatient. How hard is that to do when pitchers are pitching around you?

“Well, last year I wasn’t the best hitter on the team. I got pitched around a little bit, but now I’m really starting to get pitched around. It’s definitely an adjustment, but I’m happy about it. It’s tough sometimes. You feel like you’re at this level and you should be putting out this production, but you have to take what’s given to you and just rely on the guys behind you. All I can do is swing at good pitches and hopefully put good swings on them.

Your on-base percentage (currently .434) is higher than any Tulane regular since 2012. How much do you pride yourself on that?

“In the past I was always looking at daily average, but now if I go 0 for 1 with a couple walks, that’s as good as 2 for 3 for me. I’m trying to look at it like that. Oh for 2 with two walks isn’t as bad.”

The run production this year is almost exactly the same as two years ago, when you played in the Oxford regional. Winning sometimes is out of your control, but do you feel like you’ve done everything possible to help this team win?

“I feel like I’ve been doing pretty well. I feel like as a hitter you’re always trying to do better. I don’t think I’ve been surprised at all because of the work I’ve been putting into this. I really love this stuff. This is what I want to do for the rest of my life. Some of it’s showing, but I feel like I still have a long way to go.”

What did you change in your swing?

“The biggest change, and I’m getting mechanical here, was in the summer. I’ve always been really aggressive like lunging at it. I’ve just been holding my coil in my load and my back hip, and I feel like that makes you see the ball a lot better when you’re not trying to hit going like this (demonstrates lunge). I’m usually looking for a fastball away, but me holding my coil allows me if I see a curveball, I can hit it to right, or a fastball away I can hit it to left or middle of the field.”

How do you end up at Tulane, coming from Colorado?

“All the scouts ask me this, too. I was going to play basketball in college all the way until my senior year. In baseball, they have you commit now when you’re a freshman or sophomore in high school, so I missed like all of the circuit stuff. I had some college offers here and there, but I just decided to wait until after the draft my senior season for money to free up for these colleges. After the draft I started to get a lot of interest. I had it narrowed down to here or Loyola Marymount. Actually how I got here was the (assistant) coach from McNeese State, Corey Barton (now the pitching coach at Louisiana Tech), I hit for him in Colorado and he offered me, and then I looked at it and it wasn’t really the place I wanted to be. He kind of knew that, so he called (former Tulane assistant) coach (Sean) Allen and was like, ‘Hey, this guy can play,’ so coach Allen offered me. That’s how I got here. I’m happy I did.”

What changed in high school to make you choose baseball over basketball?

“Looking at me, I don’t look like the prototypical basketball star, but I went to a 3-on-3 national team tryout and my team made it to the finals, and whoever won that was going to represent the USA in China in this big tournament. It was a pretty big deal, and we had players from Colorado who were pretty good, but we went up against players from Kentucky who were all the top guys and obviously bigger and more athletic than me. That was the summer of my junior year. After that, I thought I want to play at the top-level competition I can, and I don’t know if I can contribute that much in the way I want to. I feel like I’d just be at the end of the bench. I’d always been pretty good at baseball and I always loved baseball. Right after that, I was just like baseball’s what I want to do for the rest of my life.”

What position did you play in basketball and baseball in high school?

“Point guard in basketball. I was center field and pitcher in baseball. I pitched a lot actually (Witherspoon pitched twice for Tulane last year in relief).”

How close to Denver is Lakewood, Colorado (his hometown)?

“It’s like a suburb of Denver. It’s 15 minutes from downtown. It’s between downtown and the mountains. It’s awesome. I love it there. There’s so much to do out there. The air out there feels so fresh, a lot different than here. The roads aren’t all potholes.”

You didn’t start the first two games as a freshman and then they put you at first base for the third game. Other than injury or suspension, you’ve never come out of the lineup since then. What are your memories of that first start?

“I just remember freshman year going into the season knowing that I was good enough and I was going to get the chance somehow and all I had to do was play like I knew I was going to. They gave Hunter (Williams) off that Sunday or they had him DH (Williams actually pinch hit and moved to first base, with Witherspoon going to left field) and I got a chance. I remember coming in Friday night, and they had a draft guy throwing (Illinois pitcher Cody Sedlock, who would go in the first round to the Baltimore Orioles), and I was like, all right, this is what college baseball is like. This is pretty cool. I’d never seen an environment like that before, and I was just thinking, I’m not in there right now but it’s going to be awesome once I get my chance and start to play. They threw me in there Sunday and then we went to California and Hunter broke his hand and I got put in on an 0-2 at-bat and from then on I just played. I played first base and left field and center field.”

This is a one-on-one in lieu of the post-spring presser he did the last 2 years.

Any questions you want me to ask?

As I understand it, we signed 26 players for the class of 2019 including Bailey Granier, a graduate transfer. We were allowed to assign one of those who arrived for the spring term to 2018 because we did not use our entire 25 allotment for that year. So, we have NO openings left for 2019 no matter who is available or how much we want him. Yet, the other two sites have long threads about QB's who are transferring this year and complaining that we are not going after them. Can we sign any more people or can't we? I don't think we can. Is there any "wiggle room?"

Roll Wave!!!

has re-appeared on the football roster. Is he back on the team? This would help our DL depth even though he is limited to 10-15 plays per game.

Redshirt Freshman DE Michael Scott is transferring per Fearthewave. He confirmed it with a source at Tulane and posted it on twitter. Scott is off the official roster on Tulane's website. Good luck to him.

I believe we now have 25 empty spots for the 2019 recruiting class WITHOUT any more attrition.

Dorian Camel blazed a 10.39 100m to win the 5A state championship for Scotlandville! A 10.39 is burning it up, he is about half a second from making the olympic team! We will have some BURNERS on the field next season.

Three of our football team members, Devin Glenn, Corey Dauphine, and Jaetavian Toles, have been contributing as sprinters this spring on the Tulane track team. The three join a fourth sprinter to form Tulane’s 4 x 100m relay team and also compete in the 100m and 200m. This weekend, Dauphine finished 9th in the preliminaries of the AAC Outdoor championship 100m dash. With a time of 10.55, he barely missed qualifying for the finals. Glenn ran a 10.65 for 15th place, and Toles finished with the 20th fastest time at 11.05. In the 200m, Glenn finished 12th (21.37) and Dauphine finished 14th (21.53). Toles apparently did not compete in the 200. Regardless, those are good times.

On the downside, Houston had five sprinters qualify for the final and four more (two different guys) qualify for the finals in the 200m. So they essentially had 7 guys faster than our fastest runners. On the upside, none of Houston’s sprinters are listed on the football roster.

We should be able to compete for a medal in the 4 x 100 today but we’ll see.

Roll Wave!!!

With Tulane's surprising win at USM last night--and I say surprising because USM destroyed the Wave's midweek pitching at Turchin earlier this year--the Wave jumped to No. 73 in the RPI thanks to a schedule that has almost no bottom feeders, unlike the Rick Jones-era schedules that were chock full of them.

I don't pay attention to the what-if RPI projections that are out there because they have not proven accurate, hinging on the expected results of too many teams to be reliable. But with top-20 ECU coming in for a weekend series, a road series against top 35 UCF later and a road game at top 65 ULL, Tulane has the potential to jump quite a few spots before the end of the season.

Considering Tulane's pitching flaws and inability to string together wins, the best-case scenario in my view is a 30-26 regular-season finish and a run to the championship game of the AAC tourney. Obviously a win there would make the at-large possibility irrelevant, while a loss would leave Tulane at 33-27.

Would that be good enough? I don't know, but a 17-11 record (counting tourney games) in the third-toughest RPI conference in the country would be a huge plus.

To get there, though, requires a leap of faith in a team that has not won more than three in a row all year.

Tulane will not sweep ECU this weekend. Yes, I know ECU just got swept at home by Houston, but the Pirates were without their ace pitcher, Chris Holba, who is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA. He was a late scratch due to illness, and coach Cliff Godwin made a mistake by moving his Saturday starter up to Friday instead of using a midweek guy or a reliever and trying to piece it together in the opener. That meant everyone moved up a spot, and Houston outpitched ECU in three relatively close games as a result.

Assuming Holba is OK, it's going to be hard to win Friday, but somehow Tulane has to find a way because it is 0-5 in conference series closers and has no one it can trust on the mound for Sunday. Godwin vowed his team would be fired up like never before for the opener against Tulane after the disappointing result last weekend, when ECU went from a likely national seed to a team fighting to host at all.

If Tulane wins the series, it absolutely has to sweep Memphis next weekend, and even considering the yearlong inconsistency, that's at least a 50-50 proposition. The Tigers are not good, and Tulane's starting pitching has been better at home.

Tulane then would have to beat ULL on the road. ULL is playing much better than when it beat Tulane at Turchin, but so is Tulane, making that game a toss-up.

So say Tulane is 28-25 entering its series at UCF. Again, I'm throwing out the possibility of a sweep since the Wave has won only five gams on the road all year. A series victory is unlikely considering what has happened to this point, but clearly not impossible. Let's give Tulane two wins there, making it 14-10 in the AAC and 30-26 overall. That might be good enough for second place in the conference and would put the Wave no worse than third behind Houston (13-5) and UConn, which is 9-6 but gets Memphis this weekend and owns the tiebreaker over the Wave.

Tulane is more equipped to stay in the winners' bracket of the AAC tourney this year than last year because Roper and Gillies are quality arms for the first two games. After that, it would be a pitch-and pray-scenario.

I don't expect any of this to happen. The more likely outcome is losing two of three to ECU, ending any at-large hopes, and finishing below .500 overall.

But thanks to the win last night, a run is not inconceivable. Roper needs to be at his absolute sharpest on Friday, and a victory against the to-this-point untouchable Holba would be a huge confidence boost for the entire team.

One other note: Tulane's RPI would have to climb to about 45 for it to not be a hindrance to the at-large hopes. There are 15 conferences for sure that will have automatic qualifiers who were not under at-large consideration and maybe four more where the tourney winner would not have been under at-large consideration. Do the math, and that means the RPI needs to be 45 or better. Tulane also won't be helped by its record against the top 50 (5-12 right now) even if it does well down the stretch. Its big selling point would be conference record, and at 7-8 right now, it's a leap of faith to envision it as good as my scenario has it.

With Tulane virtually guaranteed a second straight losing season for the first time since a seven-year string from 1958 to 1964 when it never played more than 25 games, the only hope for salvaging something this season is winning the AAC tourney (though Tulane still might end up with a losing record in that scenario).

The first order of business is qualifying for the AAC tournament. I scoffed when I heard concern about it last week, and I'm still skeptical there could be an issue, but when I looked at it closer, Tulane needs to beat Memphis tonight to avoid any concern.

If Memphis wins tonight, and the Tigers have been abjectly awful on Fridays, the pressure will ratchet up on Tulane. The Tigers use their ace pitcher on Saturdays, and the dude pitched a complete-game four-hitter with 18 strikeouts in his last road start at USF. He has really good stuff and was heralded coming into the year. He is good enough to beat Keagan Gillies and is 2-7 only because Memphis is awful at the plate.

Tulane, of course, is 0-6 in AAC series finales. No matter how bad Memphis is at the plate--really bad. below .200 in conference play, so bad that Jake Gautreau's 2014 team was an offensive juggernaut by comparison--it doesn't take talent to hold the bat at your shoulder, walk to first base, steal second and come around on wild pitches.

I expect Kaleb Roper to win comfortably tonight. Memphis is going with a pitcher who has started four times this year, finally replacing the stiff that had struggled all year, and Roper has good enough stuff to shut down those light bats.

But if Tulane loses, the tenor of the series will change. Memphis is a woeful 2-23 in its last 25 conference series, winning two of three from Cincinnati last year and two of three from USF two years ago, but I would like the Tigers' chances to add a third series win to the list if they win tonight.

Tulane clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins the series. It clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins one game and Wichita State wins no more than one game at home against South Florida. Logically, there is no way Tulane should not clinch.

But if Memphis sweeps, Tulane will be one game in front of the Tigers, losing the tiebreaker and with a trip to UCF on the agenda while Memphis gets Wichita State at home. That would be problematic.

Sophomore Keagan Gillies, a life-long Tulane fan, has made a dramatic improvement from his freshman to his sophomore year. His hits to innings pitched ratio is the third best among AAC starters, and he is by far the Green Wave's best guy on the mound (5-4, 2.71 ERA) after a nondescript freshman season as a lightly regarded Brother Martin product.

He no longer is just a curiosity as a 6-8 pitcher, and he pitched Tulane's first complete game in two years last Saturday at UConn despite the Huskies getting the umpire to check his belt for an illegal substance in an attempt to rattle him. I talked to him yesterday and here is what he said:

What was your first reaction when UConn's coach asked the umpires to check your belt for an illegal substance?

"Well I saw the coach go out to the umpire talking about something looking at me, and I really wasn't totally knowing what was going on at the time. I knew he was complaining about something. The umpire came out and said they had suspicion of something on your belt. I said, OK, so I just took off my belt and showed it to him."

Has that ever happened to you before?

"That's never happened to me before. I really didn't know what to think at the time. I knew I didn't have anything bad going on, so I didn't have to worry about it."

You gave up three hits right after the umpire checked your belt. Did it bother you at first or was it just happenstance?

"I think I did get a little over myself, but I got the fly ball and then calmed myself down and got bak into a rhythm. It was nice just to show that I could do without some foreign substance on my belt."

You are not giving up many hits this year. What is the biggest difference between this year and last?

"I feel like it's a little bit of a mental side. We did develop a slider in the offseason which kind of opens up my pitches a little bit, but it's just figuring out the hitters and what they're trying to do with it and then try to attack their weaknesses."

What was your biggest goal going into this season after struggling in spot duty as a freshman?

"The experience I got freshman year (23 appearances, 35.2 innings, 6.56 ERA) was a big contribution to that, just getting out there and getting some innings. It's very different from high school and then in the offseason I just tried to attack what I wasn't very good at. I wasn't hitting my spots very well last year, and I got hit around a little bit. Just attacking those weaknesses was really what helped me this year."

You've been good in just about every department this year. Has everything gone the way you hoped?

"Yeah, a lot of it has gone like I wanted to. I still have a lot to work on, but for the most part, it's gone how I liked."

How much does your 6-8 height help you even though you don't have an overpowering fastball?

"It's a lot, just from the angle. I'm a lot closer to the plate than other guys are, so that contributes a lot."

You only pitched three innings in summer ball in the Cal Ripken League. Were your hurt?

I came out the first week and threw a bullpen and kind of tweaked my knee a little bit, but I wanted to stay. I wanted to get some innings, but it didn't really get that much better, so I just decided to come home and work out and work on my craft a little bit."

When did you realize you were going to be a lot better this year?

"It was during the Fall World Series when I started using the slider a little bit. It was opening up my changeup. I wasn't using that as much and I could really just throw that to lefties. I could throw the slider any time for a strike, and If I throw it for a strike, it opens up the fastball and curve ball."

You had the first complete game in the Travis Jewett era at UConn, throwing 128 pitches. How comfortable did you feel in the ninth inning?

"I felt good going into the ninth inning. They were going to take me out, but I asked coach to put me back out. I felt good. I felt really comfortable. I was confident in what I had going into that ninth inning, and it showed out pretty well."

Where do you feel you can still get better?

"There's just so many things, from working on the velocity this summer, getting stronger, working on my off speed a lot more throwing curve balls for a strike instead of just throwing sliders. There's a lot of things to work on, even in the mental game."

You are a couple games under .500 as a team but playing your best ball of the season. How huge is this series against East Carolina?

"This series is huge. I just looked at the RPI and we're 73. If we go in and beat East Carolina this week and beat Memphis and go to UCF and win that, we've got a great chance going into the (AAC) tournament to get a bid."

How much more comfortable is the environment around the team in coach Jewett's second year?

"It's hard coming in your first year as a head coach. He's got some of his guys coming in this year, and the vibe's really good right now. Everybody is confident that we can make a run at the end of the year."

Your father is a Tulane alum, but he did not play baseball.

"No, he came here for his Master's. He's the smart one in the family. I don't know if I got that gene as much as he did. He got an MBA in finance. He went to undergrad at UNO."

What other schools did you consider coming out of Brother Martin?

"I've wanted to go to Tulane all my life. Ever since I was a kid I was a huge Tulane fan. We had the suite when I was younger and I just loved it here. ULL was another decision I could have thought, but once (former coach David) Pierce offered me, I really wanted to come here. It was my first choice."

How many games did you come to here as a kid?

"A lot. We were out here every weekend, sometimes Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It was a lot. It was Suite 4, the same one we have this year."

How did it feel when you got on the mound here for the first time?

"It was exhilarating. It was awesome. I'd finally made it. This is what I wanted to do in my life, being out there in front of my family and friends. It left me speechless honestly."

When did you first start playing baseball?

I started playing really early, playing T-ball when I was 3 years old, unlike my brother, who started when he was 12. But going into high school I wasn't very good. My breakout was my junior year. Me and coach Wis (Brother Martin coach Mark Wisniewski, who retired last season) worked on a lot of things. I wouldn't be here without him. He's helped me a lot. My senior year I had a pretty good year, and that's when I got the offer."

How tall were you in high school?

"I had a growth spurt about eighth grade. I was 6-8 from probably my sophomore to senior year. I was fine. I was playing basketball, and it worked out pretty well."

I saw on Twitter Jeffery Johnson wished Cam Sample good luck in surgery and a speed recovery.

Any info anyone?

All I can say is oh no. If if minor, we need this kid 100% everyday during offseason getting bigger and stronger. Since that isn’t happening I pray it is minor.

Anyone know what were his shortcomings? He’s the most versatile back since Forte.

The Tulane baseball team has a massive series this weekend in Connecticut, playing the first two games in Hartford and the final game in Storrs against the 20th ranked Huskies, who in my opinion do not deserve to be in the top 25 but could turn out to be in that caliber.

UConn has gone three weeks without ace pitcher Tim Cate and is third-to-last in the AAC in ERA at 4.35. The Huskies are in the middle of the pack in hitting at .278, and they also are dealing with a lot of injuries. In addition to Cate, normal No. 3 starter Chase Gardner did not play last weekend, and leading home run hitter Isaac Feldstein (10 HRs) has missed the last two games since crashing into the wall on Saturday against Cincinnati. One of the weekend starters against Cincinnati, Colby Dunlap, started against Holy Cross on Tuesday and threw 65 pitches, so maybe they know they are getting Gardner back.

This is a huge opportunity for Tulane to get in the race for the AAC title, but it will need to play better on the road than it has to this point after going 3-9 in four weekend road series (0-3 at Ole Miss, 1-2 at Long Beach State, USF and Wichita State). The key will be how ace Caleb Roper pitches Friday as he comes back from an ankle injury. Tulane is 4-0 in AAC series openers, but even without Cate, UConn has an outstanding Friday starter in sophomore left-hander Mason Feole (5-1, 2.72 ERA). Tulane had five hits and four walks off of him in five innings last year at Turchin Stadium, but he is coming off a 1-0 loss at Cincinnati when he pitched a complete game and struck out 14.

The pitching matchups for the rest of the weekend favor Tulane with Keagan Gillies and Josh Bates going against whoever UConn throws. If Gardner returns Saturday, he would be pretty even with Gillies, but Sunday starter Jeff Kersten is mediocre. If Gardner cannot return, UConn might have to wholestaff it.

I believe five teams still have a chance to win the AAC--Houston (10-5), East Carolina (8-4), USF (9-6), UConn (7-5) and Tulane (6-6). Cincinnati (8-7) and UCF (7-8) are out because they already have played bottom-feeding Memphis and have tough schedules the rest of the way (plus, Cincy just isn't very good). Wichita State (4-8) finishes with Memphis but has too much ground to make up. Heck, if Memphis is only three games behind the Shockers entering that series, it will still have a chance to catch them for the final spot in the conference tournament.

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

Houston: At ECU, UCF, at UConn, bye

Comment: That's a tough road. ECU appears to be the best team in the league with a chance to host a regional and a super regional if it finishes strong. It won't be easy for Houston to go 5-4 down the stretch, which is what it probably needs to do to earn at least a share of the title.

ECU: Houston, at Tulane, Cincinnati, at UConn

Comment: The Pirates are the odds-on favorite, but that will change quickly if they can't win their series against Houston. Tulane is catching them at a good time coming off that huge home series versus the Cougars.

USF: Memphis, bye, at Wichita State, at Cincinnati

Comment: The Bulls have by far the easiest schedule remaining and should be 12-6 after this weekend, putting them in excellent position heading into the two road series. Winning two of three at ECU after losing the opener 15-2 was very impressive, and they own the tiebreaker over the Pirates.

UConn: Tulane, at Memphis, Houston, ECU

Comment: With three home series and a road series at Memphis, the Huskies are in good shape, too, but only if Cate and the other injured guys come back. This weekend will be pivotal. If they win 2 of 3 from Tulane, they will be set up to make a run. If they don't, they likely will have too much ground to make up.

Tulane: at UConn, East Carolina, Memphis, at UCF

Comment: If Tulane wins the series at UConn and at home against ECU--no easy task--it will have a shot with very sweepable Memphis following. If that scenario materializes, Tulane would be 13-8 entering the trip to UCF and in the picture. It would require the Turchin Stadium hitting of the past nine games to travel and the starting pitchers to go deep, masking the shaky bullpen.

My prediction for the order of finish:

1) ECU
2) USF
3) Houston
4) UConn
5) Tulane
6) UCF
7) Wichita State
8) Cincinnati
9) Memphis

But really, the conference is so jumbled up, almost anything could happen.

From years of experience, I've learned to always go with the lower projections for players not expected to go in the first round, so I will be surprised if Parry Nickerson or Ade Aruna are taken before the third day of the draft and really before the fifth round.

Nickerson is generally projected as going anywhere from high in the fourth round to the sixth round. I like his ball skills, athletic ability and work ethic, but NFL teams will shy away from him before the third day because of his size and their concern about his ability to tackle.

Here are a few projections and assessments of Nickerson:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/parry-nickerson?id=32462018-0002-5602-3562-0e03f4de4e49

http://draftanalyst.com/ranking?position=CB&year=

http://walterfootball.com/draft2018CB.php

Ade Aruna is a good guy and a hard worker. I really hope he proves me wrong, but I've seen nothing to indicate he should be drafted or will have an NFL career. He just doesn't have the instincts of an NFL player and is too easy to push in the wrong direction. The good news is my opinion means absolutely nothing and there is a real chance an NFL team has fallen in love with his measurables and will take a chance on him in the fifth round, giving him a shot to show what he can do.

Here is the NFL.com assessment of his strengths and weaknesses. a couple of projections and an interesting Q&A he did with usatoday.com:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ade-aruna?id=32462018-0002-5601-26b9-e47c2ccf5aa8

http://draftanalyst.com/ade-aruna

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/defensive-ends/

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2018...mising-sleeper-among-this-years-pass-rushers/

Dontrell HIlliard is considered a 7th-round possibility but likely will go undrafted. He will sign as a free agent somewhere, and then it will be up to him to do what Rob Kelley and Orleans Darkwa did. Not getting drafted is not the end of the world.

I talked to all three guys at Tulane's Pro Day and never transcribed them until today. Here are those interviews. Nickerson and Aruna were group interviews. Hilliard was by myself.


NICKERSON

On primary goal at Tulane Pro Day:

"I just wanted to prove to those guys that I have what it takes. I didn’t do as much at the combine, so I just wanted to come out here and put on a good performance for them. I know what I’m capable of. I know what I can do. A lot of teams were blown away about my 40 results (at the NFL combine) They wanted to see more of my lateral movement drills, and I did good in all those."

On how hard it is to perform under that much pressure:

"I don’t think it’s hard at all. You have to know what you want and then go and get it."

On expectations in draft:

"It’s all a big business, but it doesn’t matter what team gets me. Wherever I go I’m going to do what I’ve been destined to do. Wherever they need me, I’ll play wherever they need me. I just want to show a team that I have what it takes."

On what round hopes for:

"I really think first three rounds, but it doesn’t matter. As long as I get my foot in the door, I’m going to do the rest."

On whether he was faster at combine than on field in games (not my question):

"I have game clips that match my 40 speed. The speed speaks for itself on and off the field."

What needs to improve:

"Physically the big thing was getting my weight up. I weighed in at the combine at 182 and weighed in at the all-star game at 178. That’s steady improvement. I’m headed in the right direction."

How prepared:

"I was back at Tulane a lot. I was training with Derrick Joseph and I spent a couple of weeks in Florida after the combine doing recovery work at XB. All that is leading up to today."

On how hurt hamstring at NFL combine:

"Running very fast on the 40.”

Tulane overlooked:

"Tulane is overlooked by the big schools. I’m just happy to be here. Together as a team we are doing a great thing for Tulane."

On playing nickel in NFL:

"A player that knows all the positions is a very valuable player. Me learning nickel would give me an advantage because I could play nickel and outside corner."

On motivation:

"I was at the combine and just looking at those guys perform and in my head, I was just thinking I know I can do similar if not better than those guys. I have a chip on my shoulder."

On showing speed at Tulane:

"I was always taught never quit on a play, so those examples will help me. (sophomore year fumble caused). I have a play where the SMU quarterback took off and I stopped him before he scored."


ARUNA

On what he needed to do at Pro Day:

"I don’t think I need to show anybody anything. The one thing I need to improve on is just being a student of the game. I’ve only been playing five or six years and sometimes that shows up in the game. That’s the only thing I need to improve on."

On switch to 3-4 making it tough for him in senior year:

"Not really. Last year was my last year playing at Tulane and I just wanted to go a bowl game and I wanted to change the culture. To me every year I learned new stuff. It was a challenge for me and I didn’t shy away from it. I just learned from it and kept going. It was not about me. It was about the team. I wanted us to go to a bowl game, so any scheme the coaches think is going to get us better to be able to win more games, I’m all in for it. It wasn’t ever about me."

On what did teams want to know about you at combine:

"They just wanted to know how I can read the offense. Do I know what I’m doing? If it’s 4-3 and I have the tight end on my side, what am I supposed to do? What’s my alignment? They want to make sure I know how to play defensive end. There’s so much you’re doing, playing first down and playing second down and third down, go get the quarterback. That’s about it."

What scouts told him:

"They just told me keep going, keep learning more about the game and don’t ever shy away. You see anything that’s overwhelming, just learn. That’s what all the scouts and all the coaches who have been talking to me are saying."

What did to prepare:

"I worked with Keith Millard. I was training out in California. I left January 1st and came here two days ago. It really helped me a lot to learn from somebody that was a Hall of Famer from the Vikings. It was really fun and good."

Draft expectations:

"I don’t have an idea but I just hope that anybody will look at the way I’ve grown this year. All I want is the opportunity. I don’t care what round it is. What you see is not what you get when it comes to me, so I’m just positive and hopeful that someone will take a chance on me."

HILLIARD

What time did you run:

4.45

What did you want to prove today:

I just had to come out and play and let everybody know that I’m a complete back and can really come out and play with anybody. I can catch, run routes and I have speed.

On how much Tulane tape will help:

"I feel I came out today and really caught some eyes, so now they have to go back and see me play and they want to see me play. I feel I did a good job today."

On shoes causing him to slip a few times during drills:

"I just got them. They are not good in this turf. I didn’t come out here and try them out, and they were the only pair I brought, so that’s why I was kind of frustrated."

On feedback from NFL scouts:

"It’s been good. Everybody said they liked me. They like my attitude about everything and how I go about my daily deeds. I just have to keep working."

On Rob Kelley impact:

:Rod and I talk on a daily basis. We work out together. He keeps us sharp. He lets us know what we are going to get into before we get into it so we have the mental capacity. He really gives us the scoop on everything."

What needed to show them the most:

"I just wanted to show them I could catch. That was the biggest thing, that running backs at Tulane really can catch and showing them I can run. I have a little quick shift in me."

Aside from ESPN, which has a draft writer who loves Melvin Frazier and still has him going in the first round, I'm seeing multiple mock drafts that do not have him going at all, even in the second round. A couple still have him going high in the second round.

Other than his decision not to hire an agent, I don't know what Frazier's thoughts are, but he would be taking a risk to stay in the draft. That risk might pay off, but it will be interesting to see what materializes in the next month.

Tulane could be pretty good next year if Frazier returned, although still light on post players.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft

https://www.metro.us/sports/nba-mock-draft-luka-doncic-trae-young-to-bulls-cavs

https://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2018/#round2

I was curious why hasn't there been a post spring depth chart released?

What a dramatic victory for Tulane, which showed its resilience again after taking the gut punch of being one strike away from victory and then falling behind by two runs in the top of the ninth.

Here's every word from Travis Jewett after the game, which ended on a four-pitch walk to pinch hitter Luke Glancy after LSU intentionally walked back-to-back batters to load the bases.

On responding to another gut punch:

“That’s resiliency. It’s like I told them there at the end, you got punched in the face and backed into the ropes, you might have sat down on the bottom one but you didn’t put your butt on the canvas. And then Spoon’s big hit there closed it to one run, and just the at-bats got better from there. Tigues drawing a tough walk, and you heard me yelling timeout because I put a bunt on and when I did it, I was like, what are you doing right now? We’re going to try to win this thing right here. I don’t believe in a runner-on-first, nobody-out bunt, so I’m yelling timeout and changed the call. Then they brought in a guy with two strikes, and that’s not an easy thing for the hitter to see a new pitcher with two strikes. He was missing a bunch arm side during the warm-up and left it out over the plate and Hoese put a good swing on it.

“It’s good, but I’m going to talk to the kids tomorrow. There are certain things throughout the course of the game that don’t even make it as close as it was. We’re in no doubles and we don’t check up on a ball in front. Tigues is going to make that play all the time, but there’s a little ground ball that he throws away. The Spoon throw to the plate (in the ninth) was where it needed to go but it was off line and our first baseman needs to just stop the ball, and if he does that, the hitter’s going to be out at second and you just limit their inning. We just made some uncharacteristic mistakes that kind of gave them a chance at it, but we responded well.

“Great crowd tonight. Great rivalry of course. I’m just happy for our kids.”

On Connor Pellerin’s pitching performance:

“It stabilized the game. In a lot of ways he’s the MVP because he came in after McAffer was able to just kind of keep the game in check. I was real proud of him. He’s going to be a good pitcher. I think you guys can see it. I’m pretty excited about him and Bates being young kids in the program and getting a chance to put their foot on the mound quite a bit. We’re just hopeful their experiences will keep them moving forward.

On moving Witherspoon out of leadoff spot and watching him kill LSU again:

“I’m probably done with that. Spoonie and I talked and he just didn’t feel as comfortable leading off, but he said I’ll do whatever the team needs and I appreciate that. We’re searching for (a leadoff guy) after moving Tigues out of there, and he’s done well where he’s at. Spoonie didn’t have much statistical success (batting first) but his at-bats were still fine. He just didn’t really feel it and I don’t think I did either. I told him, and he was like, well you can do something about it. He’s right, and tonight we did. We just tried to insert a Ty Johnson, somebody who can run a little bit and compete at the plate, so that was good.

“You don’t have to quote me on this, but today is my birthday. I told them I just want one present today—win this game. The kids wrapped it up for me, put a bow on it and I’m just happy for the kids. Hopefully we can use these types of moments, and I think the kids are starting to feel pretty good about themselves in terms of what we can do going forward. I’m excited. Now we’re on to East Tennessee State.”

On seeing a four-pitch walk win a game rather than lose it:

“Yeah, right. Not against us but for us. Certainly Paul (Mainieri) had to manage that how he saw fit. I remember when I was at Vanderbilt with coach (Scott) Brown, our pitching coach, we just kind of always came to the assumption that walking the bases loaded never really works out. That was probably their only option, but (Luke) Glancy did a good job. The crowd got on their feet, which was good to see in a big moment, and he grabbed the strike zone, took control of it and didn’t leave and got himself a game-winning RBI, so it was good."

Just posted it on the front page.

https://tulane.rivals.com/publishing/contents/1916100/edit