Our Tulane baseball team had now played 17 games and stands at 3-14. Obviously, something is not going right. In fact, I believe all elements of the game have been going wrong. But, it’s only 17 games, less than a third of the season. So, things can turn around. As the flowers of spring bloom, our pitchers, hitters, fielders, and coaching staff can turn things around. Recognizing that my views today could change dramatically in 30-40 more games, this is how I see our team to this point.
Through 17 Games: Pitching
I doubt any Tulane fan expected our pitching to be very good this season. Last year we had a team ERA of 5.03 and lost several of our better pitchers (Clifton Slagel, Grant Siegel, Michael Massey, Keaton Kneuppel, and Zach Devito) to graduation or transfer. It also didn’t appear that we had a particularly good recruiting season to bolster a weak and weakened staff. We did return Dyan Carmouche as our Friday night starter and he received some pre-season all-conference accolades, coming off a not very glorious 5-5 season with a 4.48 ERA. But, most of us expected improvement by him and a number of returning veterans whose combined ERA in 2022 was 5.75. So how did this team post a 7.15 ERA through 17 games? The worst team ERA in the previous 58 years that Tulane has posted stats was 6.72 in 1990, the only other year that our team ERA was above 5.74. Well, Carmouche has had one really good start and is overall 0-3 with a 5.75 ERA—not what we expected. Our Saturday starter, Cristian Sanchez, has an ERA of 12.75 and our weekday starter, Jonah Wachter, has an ERA of 7.56. Only our Sunday starer, Ricky Castro, with an ERA of 3.43, has been solid, despite some problems this past Sunday. Overall, including starts by Reilly and Welch, our starters have a combined ERA of 7.05 while our reliever’s ERA is 7.57. Both are terrible.
Wachter is particularly surprising to me. Over the past summer he only issued 5 “free passes” (walks or HBP) in 45 innings. During the fall he walked 2 in 10.2 innings. Yet, so far this season he’s walked 6 and hit 5 in only 8.1 innings. What’s going on? Anyway, Carmouche and Castro will undoubtedly continue as weekend starters, but we need to find at least one (preferably two) more pitcher to “eat” some innings at the beginning of games. Based on performance so far, the options are not good.
Welch, Reilly, Mahmood, and Fowler have each had occasions of good pitching but sport a combined ERA of 7.09. Lombardi (1.15 ERA) might concentrate on pitching and end up as our “closer,” but we need to be “in the game” late for a “closer” to make an impact. In far too many games, like Sunday, we’ve trailed by big margins late. Could he be “lengthened out” and become a starter? As for the pitchers not mentioned above, their combined ERA is 10.98. Not very good options going to the pen.
Through 17 games: fielding
Over the years, Tulane has generally had a good to excellent defensive team. Though fielding average is one of the worst judges of a squad’s “D,” we’ve generally been in the .970-.980 range with players who covered their assigned territory pretty well. We certainly made mistakes (throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men, allowing fly balls to drop between hesitant defenders, etc.) but that was probably no worse than most teams. To my eye, this year’s team makes more of those kinds of mistakes and is only fielding at .966. I believe we have two “Plus” defenders on the team in Marget at 1st base and Hart as a part-time centerfielder. Most of the others are average at best. Linn, in left field is, in my view, a below average outfielder and, due to injury, has no arm. Guys rounding third base with Linn in short left field score without a throw as he lobs it to the shortstop. Not his fault; it is what it is. Still, that’s a problem.
The run-down play a couple weeks back when we chased the tying run home in the ninth inning was really terrible. Not only did we allow the run to score but we allowed the batter to go all the way to third base to set up the eventual winning run. Chasing the lead runner back toward 3rd should have resulted in an out with the batter reaching, at best, 2nd base. Little Leaguers make that play. I chalk that issue up to coaching, but after 8-10 years or more of playing baseball, our players should be able to execute a “run-down” without a lot of guidance. Dreadful.
Through 17 games: hitting.
For our first 6 games, we hit .199 and struck out 39.8% of our at bats. In almost everyone’s view, those are bad numbers. Since then, we’ve improved markedly, hitting .288 and striking out 23.7% of the time (still high). This improvement might be due to the quality of opposing pitchers, particularly relief pitchers, better approach at the plate by our hitters, or a variety of other reasons. I’ll address some of that at a later date but, statistically, a lot of the reason is that we’ve been getting the ball in play earlier in the count and not getting to two strikes nearly as often (50% vs 62% of the time). With two strikes, the possibility of striking out and the need to swing at pitches you might take earlier in the count really hurts. Interestingly, when we’ve gotten the ball in play, we’ve also been more successful recently than in the first six games. While I’m not convinced we have a good hitting team (overall we are hitting .258), we’ve really taken advantage of opponents relief pitching. If we can hit like we have the past few games, we might be able to overcome our pitching problems on occasion. Sadly, it might be a rare occasion.
Through 17 games: coaching.
Many Tulane fans, including me, were unhappy with our coaching search following Coach Jewett’s dismissal. A number of successful head coaches appeared to be interested in the Tulane job but lack of a willingness to pay “buy outs” is often cited as a reason for passing on such coaches. I understand a lack of money limits options but an unwillingness to pay the “going rate” for top-flight coaches also limits our chances of success. The school and athletic leadership needs to decide how athletics stands in the university’s “pecking order.” Unfortunately, I fear the answer.
One reason frequently cited for Coach Uhlman’s hiring is continuity with the previous regime. I’m not sure hiring a guy associated with an unsuccessful program provides positive continuity. It seems to me that it all but ensures continuing the unsuccessful results of the past. That’s not the continuity I like. To me, along with lack of head coaching experience, that was the first strike against Uhlman. Continuing the continuity theme, it was suggested, that Coach Uhlman would help retain our better players from last year rather than see wholesale transfers. But Groff, Lee, Siegel, Davito, and Massey departed. All would have been helpful to this year’s team. Moreover, three signees rated 9.0 by Perfect Game chose to go elsewhere after the Uhlman hire. I don’t necessarily blame him for that, but, to me, that’s a second strike on the hiring. But, far behind in the count, we come to the season so far. 3-14 is not good; It’s VERY bad. With few exceptions, pitchers and hitters, in general, have regressed from previous years and recruiting has not provided anyone this season who has played a significant role in the team’s success. I’m not a fan of firing coaches mid-year because the assistant given the “temporary” job is more than likely, part of the problem. But, at this point, with two strikes and a very deep hole to climb out from, as the Athletic Director, I’d be looking very hard at a year-end replacement. Many of us can remember when Tulane baseball was a consistent winner and regional representative. I’d like to see that era return.
Roll Wave!!!
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