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The inevitable has finally happened

Here's the official release about Conroy:

http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/031416aaa.html

I'm in the extreme minority here, but I actually think Conroy is a decent bench coach and better than fans think at developing talent--Josh Davis and Ricky Tarrant were better at Tulane than anywhere else, and Jay Hook and Dylan Osetkowski improved significantly under Conroy. But all of that is irrelevant because he did not recruit well or retain talent well enough to win in either CUSA or the AAC.

With the dismal record Tulane compiled under Conroy, it's unfathomable that he did not realize he was going to get axed at the end of the year, but it looks like he really thought he would be back. He said Tulane would be next year's Houston, but his record indicated otherwise.

That said, his staff's recruiting has been much better the last two years. If most of the underclassmen stick around and the incoming freshmen stay, too, the next coach will have a chance to do something next year.

The inevitable has finally happened

Here's the official release about Conroy:

http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/031416aaa.html

I'm in the extreme minority here, but I actually think Conroy is a decent bench coach and better than fans think at developing talent--Josh Davis were Ricky Tarrant were better at Tulane than anywhere else, and Jay Hook and Dylan Osetkowski improved significantly under Conroy. But all of that is irrelevant because he did not recruit well or retain talent well enough to win in either CUSA or the AAC.

With the dismal record Tulane compiled under Conroy, it's unfathomable that he did not realize he was going to get axed at the end of the year, but it looks like he really thought he would be back. He said Tulane would be next year's Houston, but his record indicated otherwise.

That said, his staff's recruiting has been much better the last two years. If most of the underclassmen stick around and the incoming freshmen stay, too, the next coach will have a chance to do something next year.

Kyle Speer Interview, IV

This interview gets better and better.

The Speer line I liked best in this one was:

"I’m not into the buy-in thing. There is no buy-in. I’ve always said this. I don’t give you a choice. The choice is do you want to be on the team. If you want to be on the team, this is how we’re doing it, and if you don’t, you won’t be on the team."

I can't even imagine CJ or any of his coaches saying that.

I am getting really excited.

Roll Wave!!!

UNO Game

Guerry - Read your Advocate Article and I think you were very nice about this blown ball game. Pierce blew this game. He left Duester in for 1.1 innings, allowing 4 runs to score. Duester threw nothing but ball after ball into the ground, hit a batter, walked batters, etc. A pitiful performance at best. Why did Pierce leave him in so long?
Why didn't Pierce use Simms to close the last 3 outs. He does not look pretty doing it, but he gets the job done.
After Rankin walked the lead off batter in the 9th, he should have been relieved. Pierce put in a lot of the 2nd team near the end of the game and it showed on defense, as well as at bat. In a close ball game, why not have your best players on the field? Not a well coached game, by any means. P.S. Our bull pen stinks! ULL and UNO have better bull pens than TU does. It may be a long season ahead, filled with excuses and what might have beens.

More from Kyle Speer

When I talked to Speer about Braynon Edwards and Jason Stewart (though I didn't name them, he knew who I was asking about), he talked for a minute in the part I put in the third part of Q&A, but then he asked me turn the recorder off.

He will not run anyone out of the program because of a weight issue because he is worried about the rest of their lives. Wllie Fritz will not recruit anyone who weighed as much as those guys did when they signed with Tulane because you cannot be an effective player at that weight. But Speer will work with them to get them in as good condition as they possibly can even if it never results in them getting on the field. As he pointed out, people who weigh nearly 400 pounds (as Stewart does) have a short life expectancy, so he will do everything in his power to help them alter their life choices and nutrition. He is concerned about both of them. Edwards is 4 inches shorter than Stewart and is listed at 365 pound. Speer added that both of them have good athletic ability, but unlike the previous staff, he recognized the seriousness of the weight problem.

I've interviewed about five strength and conditioning coaches in my career, and I like Speer the best of them. He didn't come in ripping (publicly, or even privately to me, although there's no telling what he told them directly) the players and saying they were in the worst shape of any team he has inherited, which is a common practice of S and C guys. He laid down the law and will enforce it, but just like Fritz, he is not into negativity and bad-mouthing his predecessors regardless of what the truth is.

There is one part of the interview left. I don't even remember what he talked about in the last 8 minutes, but we'll find out together tomorrow morning.

Alemais out for the rest of the week

I talked to Pierce today, and he said Alemais will miss the entire week with his left shoulder injury.

His quote:

"He'll be out this week and I'm not sure after that."

Cade Ewards had two hits on Saturday when he replaced Alemais on short notice, but he went 0 for 4 on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how he holds up. He has not made an error in the 13 chances.

Alemais is hitting .462 and appeared headed for an All-America year before getting hurt diving into first base, a move that drew the ire of Graff.
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Sweep time

Pepperdine is struggling so far this year, but Tulane's sweep this weekend is its best in a long time.

Consider the other options:

2015: San Francisco, Xavier, Cincinnati

Comment: San Francisco has zero baseball tradition and went 23-31. Xavier has zero baseball tradition and went 15-38. Cincinnati has zero baseball tradition and went 15-41.

2014: Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Comment: that team went 19-27.

2013: none.

2012: Siena, Indiana, Brown, Southern Miss

Comment: Siena went 18-37. Brown went 9-35. USM went 32-24 and Indiana went 32-28, so those might have been better sweeps, but neither team made a regional. It remains to be seen whether Pepperdine will rebound to meet fairly high preseason expectations.

2011: George Washington, UNO

Comment: GW went 19-36 and UNO went 4-50.

2010: Lipscomb, Towson. Saint Mary's

Comment: Saint Mary's went 19-32, Lipscomb went 19-36 and Towson went 19-36.

2009: Northern Colorado

Comment: Northern Colorado went 14-35.

2008: Illinois-Chicago, Oakland, Sacred Heart, East Carolina

Comment: Sacred Heart went 12-40, Oakland went 13-30 and Illinois-Chicago went 29-21. ECU went 42-21 and qualified for a regional, so that almost certainly was a better sweep. I had to go back eight years to Rick Jones' last regional team to find one that was definitively better than the Pepperdine sweep, which the Wave needed in the worst way after losing three in a row.

One other note: Tulane outscored Pepperdine 30-3. That's the biggest run differential since Tulane outscored Brown 42-15, and Brown won only nine games all year. It was the fewest runs Tulane allowed in a sweep since shutting out Oakland 38-0 in 2008.

Devon Breaux

I was checking the results of a Track meet at Tulane yesterday to see if any of our football players were competing. In recent years, several of them have been the mainstays of our sprint relay teams and competed in the 100m dash. None of them were listed though I noticed on the Tulane official site yesterday that “Devin Breaux” won the long jump in the meet. See website:

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/tul/sports/c-track/auto_pdf/2015-16/misc_non_event/TulaneTwilightResults.pdf

But, this “Devin Breaux” was competing for Xavier of New Orleans. On further checking, “Devon Breaux” is still listed on the Tulane track roster and neither “Devon” nor “Devin” is listed on the Xavier Track roster. Strange!

Beyond the possible confusion over the spelling of the names, does anyone have an idea what happened to “our” Breaux. I know he quit football to compete full time in track, but is he still in school?

Thanks

The first-year expectations for Willie Fritz at Sam Houston State and Georgia Southern

Outside expectations will be very low for Tulane in Willie Fritz' first year considering the ugly performances the last two years and the lack of a legit QB with any experience.

It comes with the territory for him, though. His teams exceeded low expectations at his previous two stops.

When he took over Sam Houston State in 2010. the Southland coaches predicted a seventh place finish out of eight teams, putting the Bearkats ahead of only Nicholls State.

"We're starting from scratch, but I think that's exciting," Fritz said at the time. "We had all the positions open during the spring and some guys rose to the challenge and were impressive. The veterans from spring ball will be joined by a talented group of freshmen and transfers when preseason camp begins next week."

Sam Houston State went 6-5 overall and 4-3 in the Southland, finishing in a three-way tie for third. Its three losses were by a combined 11 points, including a 31-28 defeat to conference champion Stephen F. Austin. SLU, which was picked third in the preseason, lost to Sam Houston State 57-7.

When Fritz took over at Georgia Southern in 2014, the Eagles were entering their first year of FBS competition. The league coaches tabbed them eighth out 11 teams, ahead of only Idaho, Georgia State and New Mexico State.

Georgia Southern went 8-0 in the conference, outscoring opponents 306-154. After losing by 1 point to NC State and by 4 points to eventual ACC divisional champion Georgia Tech in a game they would have won if they had not lost a late fumble, they won five of their first six league games by 20 points or more. Their only close calls were against New Mexico State (36-28), Texas State (28-25) and ULM (22-16).

I will be shocked if Tulane is not picked last in the AAC West. Houston, Memphis, Navy and Tulsa are coming off bowl bids, and SMU has a well-thought of second-year coach.

We'll see if Fritz can work his magic again, which really isn't magic but excellent coaching. Memphis and Navy are rebuilding after losing once-in-a-generation QBs (for those schools). Tulsa and SMU had two of the worst defenses in the nation this year, with the Mustangs abysmal against the run (except when they played Tulane).

I had to chuckle, by the way, at one of Fritz' quotes in the article about Sam Houston State being picked seventh in 2010. He was asked about his offensive philosophy.

"We're going to have a lot of balance," Fritz said. "We're not a Texas Tech-type offense. We're not going to throw the ball 50, 60 or 70 times a game. I'd like to be as balanced as possible."

Sam Houston passed about 24 times a game.

How many true freshmen will play this fall under Fritz

I was asked that question in another thread last week, and the easy answer is I have no idea.

But that's not totally true. We know Fritz trusted a true freshman quarterback to start all season in his first year at Sam Houston State, which was a big step up from Division II Central Missouri. I'm guessing plenty of coaches with less self-belief would have gone a safer route and lost more games with a more experienced quarterback even if the true freshman had proven he was the best option. The move worked out pretty well--Sam Houston State went 6-5 with Brian Bell at QB, and he was the QB the following two years as the Bearkats reached the FCS title game.

Fritz may repeat that move at Tulane. If Darius Bradwell shows he is the best option in spring drills, he probably will start the opener next fall. Fritz won't sacrifice the season to give his recruit some experience --he's been adamant about doing everything possible to send the seniors out with a good year--but he certainly won't be afraid to pull the trigger with a freshman at QB.

To get an idea of how many more freshmen might play, today I looked into Fritz' history in his two years at Georgia Southern. This is what I found:

2014

Fritz was hired on Jan. 10 and had little time to put together a recruiting class, which probably limited the chance for playing time for his 22-man class. All but four players were redshirted (four more didn't make it to their second season), and none of them played a significant role. Linebacker Chris DeLaRosa played in 10 games and made 15 tackles as a reserver. Defensive lineman Darrius Sapp, whose older brother played LB at Tennessee and signed with the Dallas Cowboys, made 10 tackles while playing 11 games. Offensive lineman Tommy Boynton participated in seven games, and defensive end Ross Alexander had three tackles in six games.

ANALYSIS: Fritz' first class at Georgia Southern was not as good as his first class at Tulane, and he inherited a team that had beaten Florida in Gainesville, so it was not a similar situation to taking over a team that won two games outside Louisiana in the last four years and was non-competitive in the AAC the last two.

2015

After winning the Sun Belt Conference in Georgia Southern's first year in the FBS, Fritz had a much better class in his second year, signing 27 players. This time, all but six were redshirted, but three of the true freshmen played big roles. Running back Wesley Fields played in all 13 games, rushing 101 times for 682 yards and seven touchdowns. Jeremiah Culbreth started the last 11 games at left offensive tackle for a team that led the nation in rushing. Defensive end Logan Hunt had 30 tackles as a key reserve, playing in every game.

The other three had smaller roles. Wide receiver Malik Henry had two catches for 46 yards in nine games, but since Georgia Southern almost never threw, the low catch total is no surprise. Offensive lineman Curtis Rainey played in eight gams for a total of 48 downs. Safety Joshua Moon played in five games with two tackles.

ANALYSIS: Fritz does not hesitate to play someone if he is ready, but he does not force things and throw freshmen in there simply to get them experience. He wants to win now, so he refuses to throw away the present for the future. I expect more than six freshmen to get on the field next fall, but I don't expect a huge number.

Then again, the part about having no idea is partially true. Good coaches don't always follow their history to a T. Instead, they do what's best for each situation. Tulane has needs just about everywhere but running back and starting defensive tackle. If the newcomers are good enough, they'll get on the field.

Comeback falls short, baseball loses to San Diego 7-6

Trailing 7-2 entering the 8th inning, Tulane scored three times to close it to 7-5 and had the bases loaded with one out but did not finish the rally.

In the 9th, San Diego committed two awful errors, one on a double-play ball and another on a rundown, to load the bases with one out. Alemais then hit a ball on the nose but unfortunately to straightaway center field, where it was run down for the second out as a run scored. Jake Rogers then grounded out to end the game.

Tulane will play Nebraska, which lost to Arizona 11-10 in 10 innings (incredibly, Arizona's second consecutive 11-10 game after losing by the same score to Tulane), at 12:30 Sunday. I was told verbatim before the even that it was being run exactly like an eight-team regular-season basketball tournament, but that's not the case. If it were, Tulane would be playing Bryant, which won on the opening day and lost on the second day just like Tulane. Instead, the Wave is playing the other team in its bracket. Nebraska lost to San Diego 17-5 on the opening day.

Final pick 'em standings for 2015: congrats to winwave

I held the lead for most of the year, but winwave zoomed past me in the last month for a well-deserved victory.

THE FINAL STANDINGS (dropping the lowest weekly score)

1) winwave 62.5
2) Guerry 59.5
3) Wavetime 57.5 (dropped score: 3)
4) DrBox 57.5 (dropped score: 2)
5) Rcnut 50.5
6) kettrade1 49.5 (dropped score: 2
7) WaveOn 49.5 (dropped score: 1)
8) jjstock2005 48.5
9) nyoscar 47.5 (dropped score: 1)
9) LSU Law Greenie 47.5 (dropped score: 1)
11) MNAlum 46.5
12) Golfer81 43.5

Two contestants entered seven of the 12 weeks

Charlamange8 38.5
p8kpev 24.5

NOTES

No one had a perfect 9-point week (the Tulane game counted double) or a winless week all year. There were eight 1-point weeks and seven 8-point weeks.

If Charlamange had entered every week, he might have won. His worst week was 4 points.

This is the second victory for winwave under my watch after doing it in either 2011 or 2012.

12 people entered every week. Impressive.

The scores figure to be higher next year because Tulane will cover more often, and as a rule, as Tulane goes, so go our point totals.

Interview with Coach Fritz

Great interview with coach Fritz, Guerry.

He doesn't come across as merely a nice guy trying to do a job he doesn't understand (ala "you know who"). He comes across as a guy who knows what he's doing; has done it many times and in many places before; and is supremely confident that it will work here. I really like how he challenges the players and his talk of growing leaders and followers. I think we're in for a good ride.

Roll Wave!!!

Doug Ruse history as an offensive coordinator

New Tulane offensive coordinator Doug Ruse is entering his 20th year with that title. He became an OC in 1997 at Northwestern State, moved to Arkansas State from 2002 to 2009 under the same coach, spent two years at Western illinois and joined Willie Fritz at Sam Houston State in 2012 before following him to Georgia Southern.

Here are the pass/run ratios for his teams:

NORTHWESTERN STATE

1997: 514 runs, 206 passes Record: 8-4
1998: 589 runs, 275 passes Record: 11-3
1999: 435 runs, 332 passes Record: 4-7
2000: 442 runs, 302 passes Record: 6-5
2001: 429 runs, 354 passes Record: 8-4

ARKANSAS STATE

2002: 537 runs, 290 passes Scoring average: 19.9
2003: 460 runs, 328 passes Scoring average: 20.2
2004: 400 runs, 342 passes Scoring average: 19.5
2005: 481 runs, 295 passes Scoring average: 24.5
2006: 507 runs, 300 passes Scoring average: 15.2
2007: 460 runs, 388 passes Scoring average: 24.2
2008: 488 runs, 308 passes Scoring average: 27.0
2009: 428 runs, 330 passes Scoring average: 22.7

(Ruse finally left Steve Roberts, his head coach since the Northwestern State days, in 2010, the year before Roberts was fired. Arkansas State never won more than six games in a season during his tenure)

WESTERN ILLINOIS (these stats count sacks as passes)

2010: 517 runs, 426 passes Scoring average: 32.5 (passing average: 262.3)
2011: 410 runs, 300 passes Scoring average: 15.3 (passing average: 169.3)

From there, Ruse joined Fritz and finally was on the staff of a winner after being saddled with mediocre head coaches.

SAM HOUSTON STATE

2012: 340 pass plays and 736 runs
2013: 346 pass plays and 642 runs

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

2014: 637 runs and 160 passes
2015: 720 runs and 145 passes

Quite frankly, Ruse did not have an impressive resume until he joined Fritz, but the two of them have clicked beautifully, which is the most important thing. Arkansas State averaged 25 points or more only once in eight years, and Western Illinois went down the tubes after its star quarterback departed.

Week 12 pick' em results: at long last

It's taken me forever, but here are the week 12 results.

8

Wavetime

7

kettrade1

6

winwave
Guerry
WaveON
golfer81

5

Charlamange
LSU Law Greenie
jjstock2005

3

DrBox
nyoscar

2

MNAlum

1

Rcnut

And the game-by game results, with the covering team listed first

Tulsa/Tulane: 10 of 13 correct
Houston/Navy: 0
Ohio State/Michigan: 8
Notre Dame/Stanford: 7
Oklahoma/Oklahoma State: 7
FSU/Florida: 6
Ole Miss/Miss St: 8
Southern Miss/Louisiana Tech: 7

Thoughts on Willie Fritz and the passing game

The Willie Fritz era will look completely different than the CJ era on every front, from discipline to organization to style.

On the field, Tulane finally will be able to run the ball consistently. In CJ's first year, the Green Wave had the second lowest rushing yards per game of any college team this century. In Fritz' two years at Georgia Southern, his team led the nation in rushing. Enough said.

But how much will the Wave throw. Fritz is a winner who tailors his offense to the talent around him, but every coach has an overriding philosophy, and he definitely has become more run-centric as he moved up to higher levels. I understand that his stop at Georgia Southern distorts the picture because he inherited a potent triple-option attack and did not want to discard a good thing, but his best two teams at Sam Houston State had a more than 2-1 run/pass ratio and he inherited a team that had a 50-50 balance.

Considering the lack of experience and passing talent he inherits at Tulane, I will be surprised if the Wave throws a whole lot this fall. But whatever the play call, the offense will look a whole lot better than the unmitigated disaster that was Tulane's offense the past four years.

Here are Fritz' offense number of passing and rushing attempts per game dating back to his time at Central Missouri. I am counting sacks as passing attempts and taking them away from the rushing attempt total.

Central Missouri

1997: 246 pass plays and 472 runs (11 games) Record: 5-6
1998: 209 pass plays and 382 runs (11 games) Record: 8-3
1999: 162 pass plays and 526 runs (11 games) Record: 7-4
2000: 252 pass plays and 483 runs (11 games) Record: 7-4
2001: 334 pass plays and 471 runs (12 games) Record: 10-2
2002: 301 pass plays and 437 runs (12 games) Record: 10-2
2003: 260 pass plays and 443 runs (11 games) Record: 9-2
2004: 294 pass plays and 466 runs (11 games) Record: 7-4
2005: 290 pass plays and 382 runs (10 games) Record: 7-3
2006: 375 pass plays and 286 runs (11 games) Record: 5-6
2007: 351 pass plays and 446 runs (11 games) Record: 7-4
2008: 385 pass plays and 402 runs (11 games) Record: 7-4
2009: 419 pass plays and 312 runs (11 games) Record: 8-3

Sam Houston State

2010: 262 pass plays and 471 runs (11 games) Record: 6-5
2011: 263 pass plays and 689 runs (15 games) Record: 14-1
2012: 340 pass plays and 736 runs (15 games) Record: 11-4
2013: 346 pass plays and 642 runs (14 games) Record: 9-5

Georgia Southern

2014: 160 pass plays and 637 runs (12 games) Record:
2015: 145 pass plays and 720 runs (13 games) Record:

NOTES

--The Sam Houston State team Fritz inherited had thrown 354 times and run 364 times under his predecessor with a senior QB. Fritz had a true freshman in his first year who ended up starting all four years.

--The Georgia Southern team Fritz inherited had thrown 110 times and run 618 times.

--The Central Missouri team Fritz inherited had thrown 321 times and run 355 times.

--Twice in Fritz' tenure at Central Missouri, his team threw more times than it ran, and the offense was pretty balanced in each of his last five years.

Tomorrow I will look into the statistics for Tulane offensive coordinator Doug Ruse.
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