Basketball- How much improvement?
- By WaveON
- Joe Kennedy's Wave Crest
- 1 Replies
Two months ago I posted here that the basketball team had clearly improved over the previous year. Of course, we had an RPI at the time of 136. Despite the end-of-year tailspin, that is probably still true, but far less evident. We may have actually been worse at the end of this year than last.
Though the comparison certainly has many flaws (probably fatal in fact
) I took a quick look at the schools we played in 2014 that we also played in 2015. In 2014, we beat Southern, Jackson State and ECU and lost to Wake Forest, Washington, and Tulsa twice. Interestingly, we beat the same schools and lost to the same schools, including twice to Tulsa in 2015. In 2014, we were outscored by 52 points (7.4 per game) and in 2015 we were outscored by 31 points (4.4 per game). So, whatever one might think of the comparison, we performed roughly the same against the same universities. (I keep saying "schools" or "universities" because obviously they were not the same "teams" from one year to the next).
In a different comparison, last year, we went 8-8 in the 13th ranked conference. This year we went 6-12 in the 7th ranked conference. It's hard to compare that result. We fared worse in a better conference.
Last year, our final RPI was 224; this year at this point it's 214 (it could still change a little)-what one might call "marginal" improvement. Last year we went 0-11 against the top 150; this year we went 3-12, a solid, if unimpressive improvement.
In the five years of the Conroy reign, our RPI's have been consecutively 235, 251, 173, 224, and 214, an average RPI of 219.4. Through the five years, we are 5-45 against "top 150" competition. We've essentially "cleaned up" on the bottom half of the Division 1 world, going 67-26. And, thankfully, we haven't lost any to non-Division 1 teams.
I will guess that Conroy will be back next year and, barring a ten win or fewer season, the following year as well. I personally thought he should have been fired two years ago and that we wasted a year keeping him on. I then thought he should have been fired last year, so now we've wasted two years with him.
Could everything turn around next year? Possibly. Guerry listed a number of "IF's" in his "By the Numbers" article. I agree with those, though I'd add "if Stark and Dabney can shoot better than the combine 35% they shot from the floor this year." Last year, for example they shot 41.6% from the floor-- a lot better. The biggest "IF," however, regarding a turn-around next year from my perspective is "IF we have a new coach." I don't think that will happen, so I hope all the other "IF's" come through and we become NIT, if not NCAA, worthy.
Roll Wave!!
Though the comparison certainly has many flaws (probably fatal in fact
In a different comparison, last year, we went 8-8 in the 13th ranked conference. This year we went 6-12 in the 7th ranked conference. It's hard to compare that result. We fared worse in a better conference.
Last year, our final RPI was 224; this year at this point it's 214 (it could still change a little)-what one might call "marginal" improvement. Last year we went 0-11 against the top 150; this year we went 3-12, a solid, if unimpressive improvement.
In the five years of the Conroy reign, our RPI's have been consecutively 235, 251, 173, 224, and 214, an average RPI of 219.4. Through the five years, we are 5-45 against "top 150" competition. We've essentially "cleaned up" on the bottom half of the Division 1 world, going 67-26. And, thankfully, we haven't lost any to non-Division 1 teams.
I will guess that Conroy will be back next year and, barring a ten win or fewer season, the following year as well. I personally thought he should have been fired two years ago and that we wasted a year keeping him on. I then thought he should have been fired last year, so now we've wasted two years with him.
Could everything turn around next year? Possibly. Guerry listed a number of "IF's" in his "By the Numbers" article. I agree with those, though I'd add "if Stark and Dabney can shoot better than the combine 35% they shot from the floor this year." Last year, for example they shot 41.6% from the floor-- a lot better. The biggest "IF," however, regarding a turn-around next year from my perspective is "IF we have a new coach." I don't think that will happen, so I hope all the other "IF's" come through and we become NIT, if not NCAA, worthy.
Roll Wave!!