By far the easiest way to a Super Regional is to host a regional. That's obvious. Tulane has been to 10 regionals since the NCAA went to its current format in 1999. The Wave has traveled for eight of them and won only one, when host and No. 1 seed Ole Miss went two and barbecue, Tulane got past Washington's Tim Lincecum in the opener and cruised the rest of the way without having to face the Rabels.
The Wave has hosted twice--once at Zephyr Field and once at Turchin--and won both of them without losing a game.
While I would bet against Tulane being a host this year, it's certainly possible and will be pivotal in the Wave advancing, particularly if it is a No. 1 seed. I see no scenario where Tulane would host as a No. 2 seed (there is no evidence the NCAA selection committee will keep Mississippi schools from hosting because of recent legislation), and I'm not sure Tulane is good enough at the plate to go somewhere else and knock off a No. 1 seed on the road.
So how does Tulane rise to a No. 1 seed?
First, the Wave absolutely, positively has to win the AAC regular season title. The league is down this year, ranking sixth in the RPI after placing third last season, so there's no way Tulane could be a No. 1 without even being No. 1 in the AAC. A series win at USF followed by a sweep of Memphis followed by a series win at Houston almost certainly would guarantee first place. That's a 7-2 record.
Second, Tulane has to win its remaining non-conference games against UNO, Southern and Nicholls State. That would make the Wave 38-16 going into the AAC tourney. At that point, Tulane's other metrics would be strong--an 8-2 record against the top 50 in the RPI that is as good or better a percentage than any team in the country, a 15-10 mark against the top 100 that is decent and zero losses outside the top 200 (assuming Nicholls State stays on the plus side of 200).
Third, Tulane would have to start off well in the AAC tourney. The regional hosts are selected on the Sunday before the field is announced on Memorial Day, so I'm not sure winning the tournament would be relevant, but a 3-0 performance in the bracket would make Tulane 41-16 when the regionals were decided. My dream bracket scenario is Tulane at 1, Cincy at 4, UCF or USF at 5 and Memphis at 8, leaving Houston, East Carolina and UConn on the other side.
Four, Tulane would need some help. That means its RPI rising because teams it already has played perform well the rest of the way, helping the RPI rise to the high 20s (which is as high as it probably can go). That means LSU continuing to muddle along in the SEC, Southern Miss not winning the stronger (by RPI standards) C-USA and ULL having a mediocre finish. If any of those teams got a regional, Tulane would have no chance to host. I doubt the NCAA would look at Tulane's sweeps of LSU or USM. They would just look at the overall body of work. I also don't think LSU's huge attendance would be a swaying factor. The Tigers usually have not hosted on the rare occasions when they were on the borderline. The NCAA does not make the right decisions sometimes, but it's not based on money like it used to be.
If all of those things happen, Tulane would have an excellent shot to get to a super regional. The Wave's starting pitching depth is excellent. Its ability to hit home runs is excellent. And it has the potential to make sensational plays in the infield. I'm not confident that Corey Merrill will return to full health, but just as important is Patrick Duester becoming a reliable closer. Teams can go deep with a shaky bullpen, but not without a closer they can trust.
Right now, the SEC appears to be a lock for six regional hosts--Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and most likely Vanderbilt. The ACC has locks in Louisville, Miami and FSU and probably NC State with Virginia, Georgia Tech and Clemson as other contenders. Texas Tech in the Big 12 is in good position. The West coast is a mess, but it has a good chance to get two hosts just on geography alone. That leaves maybe two open spots at most, with teams like Tulane, Southern Miss, Rice, LSU, TCU, and Minnesota/Michigan having a chance to get them. A lot can change in the next three weeks, but that's where I see it now.
Anyone have any thoughts on what Tulane needs to do to host?
The Wave has hosted twice--once at Zephyr Field and once at Turchin--and won both of them without losing a game.
While I would bet against Tulane being a host this year, it's certainly possible and will be pivotal in the Wave advancing, particularly if it is a No. 1 seed. I see no scenario where Tulane would host as a No. 2 seed (there is no evidence the NCAA selection committee will keep Mississippi schools from hosting because of recent legislation), and I'm not sure Tulane is good enough at the plate to go somewhere else and knock off a No. 1 seed on the road.
So how does Tulane rise to a No. 1 seed?
First, the Wave absolutely, positively has to win the AAC regular season title. The league is down this year, ranking sixth in the RPI after placing third last season, so there's no way Tulane could be a No. 1 without even being No. 1 in the AAC. A series win at USF followed by a sweep of Memphis followed by a series win at Houston almost certainly would guarantee first place. That's a 7-2 record.
Second, Tulane has to win its remaining non-conference games against UNO, Southern and Nicholls State. That would make the Wave 38-16 going into the AAC tourney. At that point, Tulane's other metrics would be strong--an 8-2 record against the top 50 in the RPI that is as good or better a percentage than any team in the country, a 15-10 mark against the top 100 that is decent and zero losses outside the top 200 (assuming Nicholls State stays on the plus side of 200).
Third, Tulane would have to start off well in the AAC tourney. The regional hosts are selected on the Sunday before the field is announced on Memorial Day, so I'm not sure winning the tournament would be relevant, but a 3-0 performance in the bracket would make Tulane 41-16 when the regionals were decided. My dream bracket scenario is Tulane at 1, Cincy at 4, UCF or USF at 5 and Memphis at 8, leaving Houston, East Carolina and UConn on the other side.
Four, Tulane would need some help. That means its RPI rising because teams it already has played perform well the rest of the way, helping the RPI rise to the high 20s (which is as high as it probably can go). That means LSU continuing to muddle along in the SEC, Southern Miss not winning the stronger (by RPI standards) C-USA and ULL having a mediocre finish. If any of those teams got a regional, Tulane would have no chance to host. I doubt the NCAA would look at Tulane's sweeps of LSU or USM. They would just look at the overall body of work. I also don't think LSU's huge attendance would be a swaying factor. The Tigers usually have not hosted on the rare occasions when they were on the borderline. The NCAA does not make the right decisions sometimes, but it's not based on money like it used to be.
If all of those things happen, Tulane would have an excellent shot to get to a super regional. The Wave's starting pitching depth is excellent. Its ability to hit home runs is excellent. And it has the potential to make sensational plays in the infield. I'm not confident that Corey Merrill will return to full health, but just as important is Patrick Duester becoming a reliable closer. Teams can go deep with a shaky bullpen, but not without a closer they can trust.
Right now, the SEC appears to be a lock for six regional hosts--Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and most likely Vanderbilt. The ACC has locks in Louisville, Miami and FSU and probably NC State with Virginia, Georgia Tech and Clemson as other contenders. Texas Tech in the Big 12 is in good position. The West coast is a mess, but it has a good chance to get two hosts just on geography alone. That leaves maybe two open spots at most, with teams like Tulane, Southern Miss, Rice, LSU, TCU, and Minnesota/Michigan having a chance to get them. A lot can change in the next three weeks, but that's where I see it now.
Anyone have any thoughts on what Tulane needs to do to host?
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