No practice report today because they have limited media to Tuesday only during bye weeks in the past few years, but I did make it over to the stadium to get the free snoball that comes following Wednesday practices following victories (I'm totally a 56-year-old-kid) and timed it perfectly to when practice ended.
I really think a college football playoff spot is in play for this team if it keeps winning, and that's the hard part. ESPN's college football power index (FPI) gives Tulane the best chance to win out of anyone in the FBS, although the percentile (.309) makes it much more likely the Wave will lose again according to that formula, which dovetails into the point I want to make. It is hard to win week after week without a slip-up, which is whey I do not agree with the people on my twitter feed who insist the Wave has no shot at the automatic bid that goes to the No. 5 conference champion because there is no way Boise State will lose again. That's hogwash. I'm not saying Boise State definitely will loss, but the FPI has it as 74.8 percent likely and I agree. In Boise State's favor is having the single best player in college football. Running back Ashton Jeanty is averaging 206.2 yards per game and has the highlight reel to back up those numbers. He will test whether a running back can still win the Heisman, particularly one from outside the P4. It hasn't happened since Derrick Henry in 2015 and hasn't happened for any running back for a school other than Alabama since Reggie Bush in 2005. But the rest of that team is beatable. It would not shock me if Boise State lost at UNLV on Oct. 25 or at San Jose State on Nov. 16 or at home to Oregon State in its regular-season. Then, even if it has won out, it would need to win the Mountain West championship game to qualify for the automatic spot.
Tulane obviously missed a huge opportunity against Kansas State, but as long as the Wildcats and Oklahoma stay in the top 25, those will be good losses in the eyes of the selection committee in comparison to the other Group of 5 conference champions. The committee also likes complete teams that dominate their opponents, and that's two more checks for Tulane. I don't see any team other than Boise State that would be rated higher than an 11-2 Tulane, which might even have a pair of good wins on its resume if Navy and Army (in the AAC title game) are ranked when they play (likely requiring upset wins over Notre Dame for both of them).
A 12-1 James Madison? Nah. Its wild win over North Carolina may not even be as good as Tulane's over ULL. James Madison lost to UL Monroe and will not have played a team receiving a point in the polls.
A 12-1 Coastal Carolina? Not with a loss to Virginia and no other games of consequence.
Anyone in the MAC? No chance. Northern Illinois already has lost twice since its shocking upset of Notre Dame.
An undefeated LIberty? The committee will not be fooled twice, and Liberty, which survived FIU in OT last night, is playing the single easiest schedule in the country. For what it's worth, FPI gave Liberty on ly a two percent chance of going undefeated before the FIU game anyway.
The only team that could push Tulane out other than Boise State is UNLV, but there is no way UNLV is beating Boise State twice and beating San Jose State on the road. FPI gives UNLV a 6.1 percent chance of winning out, which I think is too high.
The key for Tulane is taking care of business. North Texas on the road could be interesting because North Texas throws the ball really well. Tulane likely will have to beat Navy to even reach the AAC title game. Memphis is no automatic win even though the Wave has won three in row at Yulman against the Tigers fairly comfortably. A likely title game against Army would not be a piece of cake. Still, the Wave is better than everyone it will face, so it's a matter of not having a slip-up or bad luck at the wrong time.
I really think a college football playoff spot is in play for this team if it keeps winning, and that's the hard part. ESPN's college football power index (FPI) gives Tulane the best chance to win out of anyone in the FBS, although the percentile (.309) makes it much more likely the Wave will lose again according to that formula, which dovetails into the point I want to make. It is hard to win week after week without a slip-up, which is whey I do not agree with the people on my twitter feed who insist the Wave has no shot at the automatic bid that goes to the No. 5 conference champion because there is no way Boise State will lose again. That's hogwash. I'm not saying Boise State definitely will loss, but the FPI has it as 74.8 percent likely and I agree. In Boise State's favor is having the single best player in college football. Running back Ashton Jeanty is averaging 206.2 yards per game and has the highlight reel to back up those numbers. He will test whether a running back can still win the Heisman, particularly one from outside the P4. It hasn't happened since Derrick Henry in 2015 and hasn't happened for any running back for a school other than Alabama since Reggie Bush in 2005. But the rest of that team is beatable. It would not shock me if Boise State lost at UNLV on Oct. 25 or at San Jose State on Nov. 16 or at home to Oregon State in its regular-season. Then, even if it has won out, it would need to win the Mountain West championship game to qualify for the automatic spot.
Tulane obviously missed a huge opportunity against Kansas State, but as long as the Wildcats and Oklahoma stay in the top 25, those will be good losses in the eyes of the selection committee in comparison to the other Group of 5 conference champions. The committee also likes complete teams that dominate their opponents, and that's two more checks for Tulane. I don't see any team other than Boise State that would be rated higher than an 11-2 Tulane, which might even have a pair of good wins on its resume if Navy and Army (in the AAC title game) are ranked when they play (likely requiring upset wins over Notre Dame for both of them).
A 12-1 James Madison? Nah. Its wild win over North Carolina may not even be as good as Tulane's over ULL. James Madison lost to UL Monroe and will not have played a team receiving a point in the polls.
A 12-1 Coastal Carolina? Not with a loss to Virginia and no other games of consequence.
Anyone in the MAC? No chance. Northern Illinois already has lost twice since its shocking upset of Notre Dame.
An undefeated LIberty? The committee will not be fooled twice, and Liberty, which survived FIU in OT last night, is playing the single easiest schedule in the country. For what it's worth, FPI gave Liberty on ly a two percent chance of going undefeated before the FIU game anyway.
The only team that could push Tulane out other than Boise State is UNLV, but there is no way UNLV is beating Boise State twice and beating San Jose State on the road. FPI gives UNLV a 6.1 percent chance of winning out, which I think is too high.
The key for Tulane is taking care of business. North Texas on the road could be interesting because North Texas throws the ball really well. Tulane likely will have to beat Navy to even reach the AAC title game. Memphis is no automatic win even though the Wave has won three in row at Yulman against the Tigers fairly comfortably. A likely title game against Army would not be a piece of cake. Still, the Wave is better than everyone it will face, so it's a matter of not having a slip-up or bad luck at the wrong time.
