The Tulane baseball team has a massive series this weekend in Connecticut, playing the first two games in Hartford and the final game in Storrs against the 20th ranked Huskies, who in my opinion do not deserve to be in the top 25 but could turn out to be in that caliber.
UConn has gone three weeks without ace pitcher Tim Cate and is third-to-last in the AAC in ERA at 4.35. The Huskies are in the middle of the pack in hitting at .278, and they also are dealing with a lot of injuries. In addition to Cate, normal No. 3 starter Chase Gardner did not play last weekend, and leading home run hitter Isaac Feldstein (10 HRs) has missed the last two games since crashing into the wall on Saturday against Cincinnati. One of the weekend starters against Cincinnati, Colby Dunlap, started against Holy Cross on Tuesday and threw 65 pitches, so maybe they know they are getting Gardner back.
This is a huge opportunity for Tulane to get in the race for the AAC title, but it will need to play better on the road than it has to this point after going 3-9 in four weekend road series (0-3 at Ole Miss, 1-2 at Long Beach State, USF and Wichita State). The key will be how ace Caleb Roper pitches Friday as he comes back from an ankle injury. Tulane is 4-0 in AAC series openers, but even without Cate, UConn has an outstanding Friday starter in sophomore left-hander Mason Feole (5-1, 2.72 ERA). Tulane had five hits and four walks off of him in five innings last year at Turchin Stadium, but he is coming off a 1-0 loss at Cincinnati when he pitched a complete game and struck out 14.
The pitching matchups for the rest of the weekend favor Tulane with Keagan Gillies and Josh Bates going against whoever UConn throws. If Gardner returns Saturday, he would be pretty even with Gillies, but Sunday starter Jeff Kersten is mediocre. If Gardner cannot return, UConn might have to wholestaff it.
I believe five teams still have a chance to win the AAC--Houston (10-5), East Carolina (8-4), USF (9-6), UConn (7-5) and Tulane (6-6). Cincinnati (8-7) and UCF (7-8) are out because they already have played bottom-feeding Memphis and have tough schedules the rest of the way (plus, Cincy just isn't very good). Wichita State (4-8) finishes with Memphis but has too much ground to make up. Heck, if Memphis is only three games behind the Shockers entering that series, it will still have a chance to catch them for the final spot in the conference tournament.
Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:
Houston: At ECU, UCF, at UConn, bye
Comment: That's a tough road. ECU appears to be the best team in the league with a chance to host a regional and a super regional if it finishes strong. It won't be easy for Houston to go 5-4 down the stretch, which is what it probably needs to do to earn at least a share of the title.
ECU: Houston, at Tulane, Cincinnati, at UConn
Comment: The Pirates are the odds-on favorite, but that will change quickly if they can't win their series against Houston. Tulane is catching them at a good time coming off that huge home series versus the Cougars.
USF: Memphis, bye, at Wichita State, at Cincinnati
Comment: The Bulls have by far the easiest schedule remaining and should be 12-6 after this weekend, putting them in excellent position heading into the two road series. Winning two of three at ECU after losing the opener 15-2 was very impressive, and they own the tiebreaker over the Pirates.
UConn: Tulane, at Memphis, Houston, ECU
Comment: With three home series and a road series at Memphis, the Huskies are in good shape, too, but only if Cate and the other injured guys come back. This weekend will be pivotal. If they win 2 of 3 from Tulane, they will be set up to make a run. If they don't, they likely will have too much ground to make up.
Tulane: at UConn, East Carolina, Memphis, at UCF
Comment: If Tulane wins the series at UConn and at home against ECU--no easy task--it will have a shot with very sweepable Memphis following. If that scenario materializes, Tulane would be 13-8 entering the trip to UCF and in the picture. It would require the Turchin Stadium hitting of the past nine games to travel and the starting pitchers to go deep, masking the shaky bullpen.
My prediction for the order of finish:
1) ECU
2) USF
3) Houston
4) UConn
5) Tulane
6) UCF
7) Wichita State
8) Cincinnati
9) Memphis
But really, the conference is so jumbled up, almost anything could happen.
UConn has gone three weeks without ace pitcher Tim Cate and is third-to-last in the AAC in ERA at 4.35. The Huskies are in the middle of the pack in hitting at .278, and they also are dealing with a lot of injuries. In addition to Cate, normal No. 3 starter Chase Gardner did not play last weekend, and leading home run hitter Isaac Feldstein (10 HRs) has missed the last two games since crashing into the wall on Saturday against Cincinnati. One of the weekend starters against Cincinnati, Colby Dunlap, started against Holy Cross on Tuesday and threw 65 pitches, so maybe they know they are getting Gardner back.
This is a huge opportunity for Tulane to get in the race for the AAC title, but it will need to play better on the road than it has to this point after going 3-9 in four weekend road series (0-3 at Ole Miss, 1-2 at Long Beach State, USF and Wichita State). The key will be how ace Caleb Roper pitches Friday as he comes back from an ankle injury. Tulane is 4-0 in AAC series openers, but even without Cate, UConn has an outstanding Friday starter in sophomore left-hander Mason Feole (5-1, 2.72 ERA). Tulane had five hits and four walks off of him in five innings last year at Turchin Stadium, but he is coming off a 1-0 loss at Cincinnati when he pitched a complete game and struck out 14.
The pitching matchups for the rest of the weekend favor Tulane with Keagan Gillies and Josh Bates going against whoever UConn throws. If Gardner returns Saturday, he would be pretty even with Gillies, but Sunday starter Jeff Kersten is mediocre. If Gardner cannot return, UConn might have to wholestaff it.
I believe five teams still have a chance to win the AAC--Houston (10-5), East Carolina (8-4), USF (9-6), UConn (7-5) and Tulane (6-6). Cincinnati (8-7) and UCF (7-8) are out because they already have played bottom-feeding Memphis and have tough schedules the rest of the way (plus, Cincy just isn't very good). Wichita State (4-8) finishes with Memphis but has too much ground to make up. Heck, if Memphis is only three games behind the Shockers entering that series, it will still have a chance to catch them for the final spot in the conference tournament.
Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:
Houston: At ECU, UCF, at UConn, bye
Comment: That's a tough road. ECU appears to be the best team in the league with a chance to host a regional and a super regional if it finishes strong. It won't be easy for Houston to go 5-4 down the stretch, which is what it probably needs to do to earn at least a share of the title.
ECU: Houston, at Tulane, Cincinnati, at UConn
Comment: The Pirates are the odds-on favorite, but that will change quickly if they can't win their series against Houston. Tulane is catching them at a good time coming off that huge home series versus the Cougars.
USF: Memphis, bye, at Wichita State, at Cincinnati
Comment: The Bulls have by far the easiest schedule remaining and should be 12-6 after this weekend, putting them in excellent position heading into the two road series. Winning two of three at ECU after losing the opener 15-2 was very impressive, and they own the tiebreaker over the Pirates.
UConn: Tulane, at Memphis, Houston, ECU
Comment: With three home series and a road series at Memphis, the Huskies are in good shape, too, but only if Cate and the other injured guys come back. This weekend will be pivotal. If they win 2 of 3 from Tulane, they will be set up to make a run. If they don't, they likely will have too much ground to make up.
Tulane: at UConn, East Carolina, Memphis, at UCF
Comment: If Tulane wins the series at UConn and at home against ECU--no easy task--it will have a shot with very sweepable Memphis following. If that scenario materializes, Tulane would be 13-8 entering the trip to UCF and in the picture. It would require the Turchin Stadium hitting of the past nine games to travel and the starting pitchers to go deep, masking the shaky bullpen.
My prediction for the order of finish:
1) ECU
2) USF
3) Houston
4) UConn
5) Tulane
6) UCF
7) Wichita State
8) Cincinnati
9) Memphis
But really, the conference is so jumbled up, almost anything could happen.
