It was a brutal way to end a series that was shaping up to be the best weekend performance since 2016, and Tulane definitely has major concerns at closer, but even at 3-4, this appears to be easily Travis Jewett's best team. I laughed when I read on another message board that Tulane's at-large NCAA tournament hopes were already on life support. One, the AAC is a good baseball league, so it's not like the Wave will have no more chances for huge wins. Two, winning 1 of 3 at Mississippi State most likely will turn out to be a positive (if the Bulldogs are as good as they usually are) rather than a negative in the selection committee's eyes.
If Tulane plays exactly at this level for the rest of the year, it is a regional team even if it never figures out the back end of the bullpen. That being said, teams are not static. There's no guarantee Tulane will continue to play like this, with clutch hits, outstanding infield defense (at everywhere but second base) and terrific contributions from newcomers. But if it does continue to play like this, the Wave will go 4-0 this week, beating one of its two in-state nemeses Southeastern and sweeping Western Kentucky. Braden Otlhoff is a virtual lock to win on Friday. Jack Aldrich will be awfully tough to beat on Sunday. Donovan Benoit is capable of of pitching well on Saturday.
Winwave pointed out on twitter that all eight of Chase Engelhard's hits are for extra bases, which is amazing. His massive home run yesterday was one of the longest the Mississippi State announcers said they'd seen at Dudy Noble Field, and they've been covering the team for a long time. If Jared Hart's knee injury is not significant, he will continue to hit for a high average because his swings are pure. Trevor Minder will not stay below .200 for long because he has too much ability.
Now as for the bullpen, it will be interesting what Jewett decided. I'm assuming he will stick with Gillies for now, but one more blown opportunity will send him searching for a new closer. He's made the same mistake year after year, preferring to go with a guy who looks intimidating on the mound rather than the guy who can get outs reliably. The only good closer he's had in five years was Christian Colletti in his first season, and he went to him only after Ted Andrews was a massive failure. Since then, Will McAffer, Connor Pellerin, Brendan Cellucci, Justin Campbell (when Jewett got desperate and went away from his love of intimidators) were abysmal, unable to find the plate, and Gillies failed in his first major assignment after not really being tested in the abbreviated 2020 season. There has to be someone on this deep staff (I'm talking quantity rather than quality) who can get the job done if Gillies continues to struggle. At least Gillies is in the vicinity of the plate unlike almost all of those other guys, but his control still needs to get better or he 'll never be the answer. I thought Clifton Slagel should have closed the Saturday game, but he got tattooed yesterday, so what do I know? I'm not a believer that a closer needs to have an elite fastball, but he probably needs more elite stuff than Slagel has. Campbell is not the answer for the same reason. It has to be one of the new guys.
But again, this is a good team even if it cannot find a closer. It easily could have swept Mississippi State. It has the potential to dominate lesser opponents. We'll have a much better read by the end of this week, but I'll say this. The general expectation after the ninth-inning implosion on Saturday was Tulane would lose 15-1 on Sunday. Instead, it outplayed Mississippi State in every department, losing only because of a mind-blowing mistake by Collin Burns to leave third base early while tagging up (if he indeed did so; there was no replay to confirm), a home-run ball by Minder that was caught over the low wall (it would have been gone if it had been two inches deeper) and Gillies not being able to execute one more pitch, which he threw right over the middle of the plate after not getting the call on his previous one (which was outside but had been called a strike for other pitchers most of the time).
I like this team a lot. it showed toughness when the previously moribund Ethan Groff singled with two outs in the ninth and the clutch Luis Aviles (more from him later) hit the moon shot homer to give the Wave the lead. The only way it won't make a regional is if it underachieves, which is possible considering what happened in the ninth inning on Saturday and Sunday, but not likely.
Aviles and Jewett talked after yesterday's heartbreaker. Aviles was much more positive than Jewett. I will post their quotes shortly.
If Tulane plays exactly at this level for the rest of the year, it is a regional team even if it never figures out the back end of the bullpen. That being said, teams are not static. There's no guarantee Tulane will continue to play like this, with clutch hits, outstanding infield defense (at everywhere but second base) and terrific contributions from newcomers. But if it does continue to play like this, the Wave will go 4-0 this week, beating one of its two in-state nemeses Southeastern and sweeping Western Kentucky. Braden Otlhoff is a virtual lock to win on Friday. Jack Aldrich will be awfully tough to beat on Sunday. Donovan Benoit is capable of of pitching well on Saturday.
Winwave pointed out on twitter that all eight of Chase Engelhard's hits are for extra bases, which is amazing. His massive home run yesterday was one of the longest the Mississippi State announcers said they'd seen at Dudy Noble Field, and they've been covering the team for a long time. If Jared Hart's knee injury is not significant, he will continue to hit for a high average because his swings are pure. Trevor Minder will not stay below .200 for long because he has too much ability.
Now as for the bullpen, it will be interesting what Jewett decided. I'm assuming he will stick with Gillies for now, but one more blown opportunity will send him searching for a new closer. He's made the same mistake year after year, preferring to go with a guy who looks intimidating on the mound rather than the guy who can get outs reliably. The only good closer he's had in five years was Christian Colletti in his first season, and he went to him only after Ted Andrews was a massive failure. Since then, Will McAffer, Connor Pellerin, Brendan Cellucci, Justin Campbell (when Jewett got desperate and went away from his love of intimidators) were abysmal, unable to find the plate, and Gillies failed in his first major assignment after not really being tested in the abbreviated 2020 season. There has to be someone on this deep staff (I'm talking quantity rather than quality) who can get the job done if Gillies continues to struggle. At least Gillies is in the vicinity of the plate unlike almost all of those other guys, but his control still needs to get better or he 'll never be the answer. I thought Clifton Slagel should have closed the Saturday game, but he got tattooed yesterday, so what do I know? I'm not a believer that a closer needs to have an elite fastball, but he probably needs more elite stuff than Slagel has. Campbell is not the answer for the same reason. It has to be one of the new guys.
But again, this is a good team even if it cannot find a closer. It easily could have swept Mississippi State. It has the potential to dominate lesser opponents. We'll have a much better read by the end of this week, but I'll say this. The general expectation after the ninth-inning implosion on Saturday was Tulane would lose 15-1 on Sunday. Instead, it outplayed Mississippi State in every department, losing only because of a mind-blowing mistake by Collin Burns to leave third base early while tagging up (if he indeed did so; there was no replay to confirm), a home-run ball by Minder that was caught over the low wall (it would have been gone if it had been two inches deeper) and Gillies not being able to execute one more pitch, which he threw right over the middle of the plate after not getting the call on his previous one (which was outside but had been called a strike for other pitchers most of the time).
I like this team a lot. it showed toughness when the previously moribund Ethan Groff singled with two outs in the ninth and the clutch Luis Aviles (more from him later) hit the moon shot homer to give the Wave the lead. The only way it won't make a regional is if it underachieves, which is possible considering what happened in the ninth inning on Saturday and Sunday, but not likely.
Aviles and Jewett talked after yesterday's heartbreaker. Aviles was much more positive than Jewett. I will post their quotes shortly.
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