1) Tulane's pitching, almost inconceivably, is now worse than it was the last two years.
We have been talking all year about what a shame it would be if Tulane's incredible hitting was wasted with no NCAA regional appearance, but it has gotten past that stage because the pitching has become historically bad. UNO, a light-hitting team that has scored 10 or more runs three times in the last 30 games, accomplished two of those three against Tulane's sorry pitching. Depth always was going to be an issue on the mound, but Tulane's weekend starters, which were supposed to be a strength, have been bad.
Defining quality starts as going at least five innings while allowing three or fewer runs (I'm altering the real formula of six innings and three runs because this is college, not the Major Leagues), Kaleb Roper has five quality starts in 11 outings, Chase Solesky four in 10 and Keagan Gillies two in 11. That won't get the job done.
Tulane's ERA has ballooned to 5.82, which is on pace for the second worst in school history behind the astronomical 6.72 in 1990 when the Wave went 19-35. Not coincidentally, that also was the last time the Wave went 0-3 against UNO in a season.
Gillies' ERA has risen from 3.36 in 2018 to 7.77 in 2019. He overachieved last year, but that rise is insane.
Roper's ERA has risen from 4.48 in 2018 to 4.99, all a result of his disastrous last two starts. That's not good enough for a guy Tulane hoped would win 10 games.
Connor Pellerin's ERA has gone from 4.30 to 8.54, and he no longer looks good at any point of his appearances. He uses to overwhelm batters before making crucial mistakes. He no longer is missing bats, but he continues to miss the plate.
Jewett admitted last night he had no idea how Tulane would get enough pitching down the stretch to turn this around. The only hope is for at least two of the weekend starters to magically find their form, allowing the Wave to go deep into games before using its bullpen and possibly allowing Brendan Cellucci to start. He was sharp in a career-long 5.1 innings against ECU on Sunday and had allowed only two runs in his previous 11 relief appearances, but without him, what would Tulane do in the bullpen after Justin Campbell? They have no idea whether anyone else they use will get an out, much less pitch an inning.
2) We're still waiting on the Caleb Daniels decision.
Ron Hunter has signed two players, one of whom probably will have to sit out the season as a transfer from Georgia, but one of his most important tasks is convincing Daniels to say. I've read all the posts elsewhere about how no one from a winless conference team is important and losing everyone would be addition by subtraction, but that is impossibly short-sighted. We're talking about a guy who scored 30-plus points in one half in the last regular season game. Daniels is a difference maker, and when I talked to his high school coach, he was emphatic that Daniels still might return. He is testing the waters in the NBA draft and also looking at other schools, but he continues to practice at Hertz, unlike Connor Crabtree, who is as good as gone. I like Crabtree's potential, but losing him is not that big a deal. Daniels is the guy who matters. Having watched Hunter's teams at the Sun Belt Conference tournament in the past, I think Daniels is an excellent fit for Hunter's system.
I have a tentative interview set up with Hunter for next Wednesday. Assuming I don't lose the file before I transcribe the tape, I will post every word here.
3) Should Tulane be the favorite in the AAC West in football?
I'm still waffling on whether I will pick Tulane to win the AAC West if I get a vote at AAC Media Days (The Advocate will not send me to the Rhode Island shindig in July, but I have been given a vote some years and not in others). It's down to Tulane or Houston in my book because Memphis lost a ton of talent on offense. Houston is the most talented team in the AAC, and Dana Holgorsen is a clear upgrade on Major Applewhile as coach although his West Virginia teams often struggled defensively.
Tulane gets Houston at home this year, and the Wave's success will hinge on improving an offense that simply has not produced consistently in Willie Fritz's first three years and laid an egg against a reeling Houston defense last season. I'm convinced that game more than any other prompted Fritz to replace Doug Ruse. Houston could not stop its shadow in the second half of the season, but it stopped Tulane. If Will Hall's offense clicks right away, I really like Tulane's chances, but there's no guarantee it will.
Whether I get a vote or not, I know Tulane will be picked third in the West behind both Houston and Memphis, likely in that order. Even though those three teams tied for the title last year, no one outside of New Orleans sees Tulane as a legitimate contender because of the Wave's long history of not being a contender. In fact, the people picking Tulane will think the Wave would be happy to finish third and go 6-6 again in the regular season. They have no idea how high this team's inner expectations are.
We have been talking all year about what a shame it would be if Tulane's incredible hitting was wasted with no NCAA regional appearance, but it has gotten past that stage because the pitching has become historically bad. UNO, a light-hitting team that has scored 10 or more runs three times in the last 30 games, accomplished two of those three against Tulane's sorry pitching. Depth always was going to be an issue on the mound, but Tulane's weekend starters, which were supposed to be a strength, have been bad.
Defining quality starts as going at least five innings while allowing three or fewer runs (I'm altering the real formula of six innings and three runs because this is college, not the Major Leagues), Kaleb Roper has five quality starts in 11 outings, Chase Solesky four in 10 and Keagan Gillies two in 11. That won't get the job done.
Tulane's ERA has ballooned to 5.82, which is on pace for the second worst in school history behind the astronomical 6.72 in 1990 when the Wave went 19-35. Not coincidentally, that also was the last time the Wave went 0-3 against UNO in a season.
Gillies' ERA has risen from 3.36 in 2018 to 7.77 in 2019. He overachieved last year, but that rise is insane.
Roper's ERA has risen from 4.48 in 2018 to 4.99, all a result of his disastrous last two starts. That's not good enough for a guy Tulane hoped would win 10 games.
Connor Pellerin's ERA has gone from 4.30 to 8.54, and he no longer looks good at any point of his appearances. He uses to overwhelm batters before making crucial mistakes. He no longer is missing bats, but he continues to miss the plate.
Jewett admitted last night he had no idea how Tulane would get enough pitching down the stretch to turn this around. The only hope is for at least two of the weekend starters to magically find their form, allowing the Wave to go deep into games before using its bullpen and possibly allowing Brendan Cellucci to start. He was sharp in a career-long 5.1 innings against ECU on Sunday and had allowed only two runs in his previous 11 relief appearances, but without him, what would Tulane do in the bullpen after Justin Campbell? They have no idea whether anyone else they use will get an out, much less pitch an inning.
2) We're still waiting on the Caleb Daniels decision.
Ron Hunter has signed two players, one of whom probably will have to sit out the season as a transfer from Georgia, but one of his most important tasks is convincing Daniels to say. I've read all the posts elsewhere about how no one from a winless conference team is important and losing everyone would be addition by subtraction, but that is impossibly short-sighted. We're talking about a guy who scored 30-plus points in one half in the last regular season game. Daniels is a difference maker, and when I talked to his high school coach, he was emphatic that Daniels still might return. He is testing the waters in the NBA draft and also looking at other schools, but he continues to practice at Hertz, unlike Connor Crabtree, who is as good as gone. I like Crabtree's potential, but losing him is not that big a deal. Daniels is the guy who matters. Having watched Hunter's teams at the Sun Belt Conference tournament in the past, I think Daniels is an excellent fit for Hunter's system.
I have a tentative interview set up with Hunter for next Wednesday. Assuming I don't lose the file before I transcribe the tape, I will post every word here.
3) Should Tulane be the favorite in the AAC West in football?
I'm still waffling on whether I will pick Tulane to win the AAC West if I get a vote at AAC Media Days (The Advocate will not send me to the Rhode Island shindig in July, but I have been given a vote some years and not in others). It's down to Tulane or Houston in my book because Memphis lost a ton of talent on offense. Houston is the most talented team in the AAC, and Dana Holgorsen is a clear upgrade on Major Applewhile as coach although his West Virginia teams often struggled defensively.
Tulane gets Houston at home this year, and the Wave's success will hinge on improving an offense that simply has not produced consistently in Willie Fritz's first three years and laid an egg against a reeling Houston defense last season. I'm convinced that game more than any other prompted Fritz to replace Doug Ruse. Houston could not stop its shadow in the second half of the season, but it stopped Tulane. If Will Hall's offense clicks right away, I really like Tulane's chances, but there's no guarantee it will.
Whether I get a vote or not, I know Tulane will be picked third in the West behind both Houston and Memphis, likely in that order. Even though those three teams tied for the title last year, no one outside of New Orleans sees Tulane as a legitimate contender because of the Wave's long history of not being a contender. In fact, the people picking Tulane will think the Wave would be happy to finish third and go 6-6 again in the regular season. They have no idea how high this team's inner expectations are.