1) Justin McMillan is better than many think
I am surprised by how many people I come across who think McMillan is a bad or average quarterback. Tulane is on pace to finish with the second highest average yards per game in school history (473.6, trailing the 507.1 in 1998 but well ahead of the No. 3 total of 453.5 in 2000) and the second most points per game in school history (36.4, trailing the 45.0 in 1998 but ahead of the No. 3 total 34.1 in 1997).
McMillan has played a big part in that productivity, rushing for 12 touchdowns when the previous high for a Tulane QB was 8 and showing tremendous ball-fake ability on a variety of plays. He is a major reason Tulane ranks ninth nationally in rushing yards per game and sixth in average per carry. He absolutely has made some horrific passes at times, but his completion percentage of .605 is respectable and he threw really well against Navy in a game Tulane probably would have won to keep its legitimate West division title hopes alive if the defense had not failed on the final two possessions. Navy had been tough on everyone defensively until McMillan carved up the Midshipmen in the final three quarters.
I understand why people get frustrated with him. His interception at the end of the first half against Memphis was dreadful. His tip-drill interception that turned into a pick six against Navy was a careless, rushed toss in the middle of the field. His interception early in the fourth quarter against Tulsa was a huge mistake. He simply did not see the outside defender as he tried to lead Darnell Mooney into a completion near the sideline. His deep ball is generally inaccurate and usually underthrown. But he almost always rebounds from his mistakes, remains calm and makes clutch plays. He's no Joe Burrow, but Burrow's decision to transfer to LSU propped up both programs because Tulane would not have gone to a bowl game last year without McMillan and I find it hard to believe the Wave would be going to a bowl game this year without McMillan. In the next three games, he has a huge chance to make his critics eat their words. Someone who casually follows Tulane told me yesterday he would be less surprised if Tulane went 6-6 in the regular season than if it went 8-4 or better. If McMillan leads the Wave to a win at beatable Temple, then comes back and knocks off ranked UCF (the Knights almost certainly will be in the top 25 if they beat Tulsa this week) for the Wave's first win against a top 25 team since 1984, some people will come around on him.
2) It's hard to play defense in the AAC this year.
Tulane's defense, in my view, has been disappointing, not getting the same pass rush as a year ago, giving up too many first downs on third-and-long and allowing too many yards in general. But the Wave actually is ranked fourth in the AAC in yards allowed and points given up in league games and is third in total defense overall.
Consider that Cincinnati, which I thought had the best defense in the AAC, just got torched for 53 points and more than 550 yards passing by East Carolina in a 56-53 victory. Or that Memphis and SMU combined for 1,067 yards and 102 points on ABC (SMU's tackling was atrocious). With the proliferation of spread offenses and quick-paced attacks, it is no fun being a defensive coordinator.
Tulane already has faced Houston with D'Eriq King, Memphis with its explosive playmakers on the road, Navy with its NCAA-leading rushing attack and Tulsa with a QB who is a very talented passer. The Wave will catch a bit of a break against Temple, which is ninth in the AAC in yards, but the finishing two games against UCF (No. 1) and SMU (No.2) will be really tough, and the defense figures to give up a lot of yards even if it plays well.
UCF has tremendous speed at the skill positions. SMU's quarterback and receivers are elite. Jack Curtis will have his work cut out for him, and the key will be making sure the defense does not get down on itself if it gives up some big plays early.
3) Navy will win the AAC West.
I'm not wedded to this concept because Memphis owns the tiebreaker and is nearly impossible to stop offensively when it is rolling, but the Tigers have the more difficult schedule the rest of the way and, I believe, will have to win out to hold on to their lead. Navy should beat SMU at home in three weeks (a result that would officially eliminate Tulane from title contention) because the Mustangs will have a harder time stopping Navy's running game than Navy will slowing down SMU's passing game, although both will put up big numbers. Navy is too disciplined to slip up at Houston in its AAC finale and might run for 500-plus yards against the defensively challenged Cougars.
Memphis plays at Houston and at South Florida before finishing with Cincinnati at home. The Tigers have played four road games this year, and in the last three, they have really struggled. They beat ULM 52-33 while giving up a whopping 575 yards and 30 first downs. They lost to Temple 30-28, turning the ball over four times and allowing 27 first downs. They beat Tulsa 42-41, allowing 584 yards, 33 first downs and a late drive that should have handed them a defeat before Tulsa's kicker missed a straight-on, 29-yarder on the final play.
Houston came close to beating SMU at home and led UCF at halftime on the road. The Cougars are not good, but they are still competing, and Memphis could lose that game if it does not improve away from home.
South Florida has shown signs of life recently, rallying to beat BYU at home and then routing East Carolina 45-20 on the road a week before ECU almost upset Cincinnati. The Bulls will beat Memphis if the Tigers do not play their best road game of the year.
It's funny. Cincinnati, my pick to win the AAC before the year started, might be Memphis's easiest game left if the Bearcats already have clinched a spot in the championship game when the two teams meet on the final Friday. Memphis has been awesome at home all year, and the Bearcats will struggle to keep up with the Tigers knowing they have a much bigger game the following weekend. Regardless, I don't see Memphis running the table.
I am surprised by how many people I come across who think McMillan is a bad or average quarterback. Tulane is on pace to finish with the second highest average yards per game in school history (473.6, trailing the 507.1 in 1998 but well ahead of the No. 3 total of 453.5 in 2000) and the second most points per game in school history (36.4, trailing the 45.0 in 1998 but ahead of the No. 3 total 34.1 in 1997).
McMillan has played a big part in that productivity, rushing for 12 touchdowns when the previous high for a Tulane QB was 8 and showing tremendous ball-fake ability on a variety of plays. He is a major reason Tulane ranks ninth nationally in rushing yards per game and sixth in average per carry. He absolutely has made some horrific passes at times, but his completion percentage of .605 is respectable and he threw really well against Navy in a game Tulane probably would have won to keep its legitimate West division title hopes alive if the defense had not failed on the final two possessions. Navy had been tough on everyone defensively until McMillan carved up the Midshipmen in the final three quarters.
I understand why people get frustrated with him. His interception at the end of the first half against Memphis was dreadful. His tip-drill interception that turned into a pick six against Navy was a careless, rushed toss in the middle of the field. His interception early in the fourth quarter against Tulsa was a huge mistake. He simply did not see the outside defender as he tried to lead Darnell Mooney into a completion near the sideline. His deep ball is generally inaccurate and usually underthrown. But he almost always rebounds from his mistakes, remains calm and makes clutch plays. He's no Joe Burrow, but Burrow's decision to transfer to LSU propped up both programs because Tulane would not have gone to a bowl game last year without McMillan and I find it hard to believe the Wave would be going to a bowl game this year without McMillan. In the next three games, he has a huge chance to make his critics eat their words. Someone who casually follows Tulane told me yesterday he would be less surprised if Tulane went 6-6 in the regular season than if it went 8-4 or better. If McMillan leads the Wave to a win at beatable Temple, then comes back and knocks off ranked UCF (the Knights almost certainly will be in the top 25 if they beat Tulsa this week) for the Wave's first win against a top 25 team since 1984, some people will come around on him.
2) It's hard to play defense in the AAC this year.
Tulane's defense, in my view, has been disappointing, not getting the same pass rush as a year ago, giving up too many first downs on third-and-long and allowing too many yards in general. But the Wave actually is ranked fourth in the AAC in yards allowed and points given up in league games and is third in total defense overall.
Consider that Cincinnati, which I thought had the best defense in the AAC, just got torched for 53 points and more than 550 yards passing by East Carolina in a 56-53 victory. Or that Memphis and SMU combined for 1,067 yards and 102 points on ABC (SMU's tackling was atrocious). With the proliferation of spread offenses and quick-paced attacks, it is no fun being a defensive coordinator.
Tulane already has faced Houston with D'Eriq King, Memphis with its explosive playmakers on the road, Navy with its NCAA-leading rushing attack and Tulsa with a QB who is a very talented passer. The Wave will catch a bit of a break against Temple, which is ninth in the AAC in yards, but the finishing two games against UCF (No. 1) and SMU (No.2) will be really tough, and the defense figures to give up a lot of yards even if it plays well.
UCF has tremendous speed at the skill positions. SMU's quarterback and receivers are elite. Jack Curtis will have his work cut out for him, and the key will be making sure the defense does not get down on itself if it gives up some big plays early.
3) Navy will win the AAC West.
I'm not wedded to this concept because Memphis owns the tiebreaker and is nearly impossible to stop offensively when it is rolling, but the Tigers have the more difficult schedule the rest of the way and, I believe, will have to win out to hold on to their lead. Navy should beat SMU at home in three weeks (a result that would officially eliminate Tulane from title contention) because the Mustangs will have a harder time stopping Navy's running game than Navy will slowing down SMU's passing game, although both will put up big numbers. Navy is too disciplined to slip up at Houston in its AAC finale and might run for 500-plus yards against the defensively challenged Cougars.
Memphis plays at Houston and at South Florida before finishing with Cincinnati at home. The Tigers have played four road games this year, and in the last three, they have really struggled. They beat ULM 52-33 while giving up a whopping 575 yards and 30 first downs. They lost to Temple 30-28, turning the ball over four times and allowing 27 first downs. They beat Tulsa 42-41, allowing 584 yards, 33 first downs and a late drive that should have handed them a defeat before Tulsa's kicker missed a straight-on, 29-yarder on the final play.
Houston came close to beating SMU at home and led UCF at halftime on the road. The Cougars are not good, but they are still competing, and Memphis could lose that game if it does not improve away from home.
South Florida has shown signs of life recently, rallying to beat BYU at home and then routing East Carolina 45-20 on the road a week before ECU almost upset Cincinnati. The Bulls will beat Memphis if the Tigers do not play their best road game of the year.
It's funny. Cincinnati, my pick to win the AAC before the year started, might be Memphis's easiest game left if the Bearcats already have clinched a spot in the championship game when the two teams meet on the final Friday. Memphis has been awesome at home all year, and the Bearcats will struggle to keep up with the Tigers knowing they have a much bigger game the following weekend. Regardless, I don't see Memphis running the table.
