1) Spring practice is coming. Spring practice is coming.
Part one of the quarterback decision begins next Tuesday when the delayed spring practice begins and Michael Pratt, Keon Howard and Christian Daniels begin trying to show they can be Tulane's starting QB next fall. We all discount Daniels and probably for good reason, but he is still on the roster and will get his shot. I'm skeptical about Howard because of his ball-security issues at Southern Miss, but Tulane would not have recruited him if he had not shot. Pratt comes with high credentials but not the type of credentials that usually lead to first-year success. Maybe he is the exception, although it is hard to get a true read in practice how a newcomer will perform in games. I still expect Tulane to bring in a grad transfer in the summer because Willie Fritz does not want to have a regression and simply cannot trust the guys he currently has on the roster. Maybe 15 practices in the next month will change my mind.
Tulane also needs to find a nickelback, with K.J. Vault the only returning player at the postion, figure out the exact roles for its five talented running backs (Amare Jones, Tyjae Spears, Cameron Carroll, Stephon Huderson and Ygenio Booker), find a starting offensive tackle and guard on the right side (Sincere Haynesworth at center, Corey Dublin at left guard and Joey Claybook at left tackle are set), find out whether Jesus Machado is ready to contribute and linebacker and whether Kevin Henry is good enough to start, among many other things. But all eyes will be on the quarterback and an unproven group of receivers, with Oklahoma grad transfer Mykel Jones and the Watts twins trying to prove they make up for the loss of Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey. I will have full coverage of every practice I attend, which should be all of them unless the Advocate decides to send me to Fort Worth for the AAC basketball tournament.
2) Tulane is going to finish last in the AAC in hoops
What Ron Hunter guaranteed would not happen almost certainly will happen unless Tulane beats Memphis and UConn at home AND at least one of three teams, ECU, USF and UCF, loses all of its remaining games. The Wave loses every two- and multiple-team tiebreaker for the bottom seed, so it will have to be free and clear of a team to avoid being the bottom seed. Assuming it is the bottom seed, its first game will be the second game on Thursday, March 12 in Fort Worth, Texas, and its opponent will be the No. 5 seed, most likely either SMU or Wichita State. Win that, and the Wave would be in the quarterfinal in the second game on Friday against the No. 4 seed, again most likely either SMU or Wichita State.
Since leaving the SEC, Tulane has won two conference tourney games only once, in 2016 in an unlikely run under about-to-be fired coach Ed Conroy. Hunter's team has an outside chance to do it the way it is playing right now, but Jordan Walker will have to continue playing well, Teshaun Hightower needs to keep hitting 3s to open up his driving lanes and the Wave needs either K.J. Lawson or Nic Thomas to get hot from outside. We know Christion Thompson will play well, and Lawson likely will play well, too. This is the team I thought we would see all year, but it disappeared for an eight-game stretch of awful basketball. The future is bright under Hunter, but it would be nice for the present to feature a positive run in Fort Worth.
3) The baseball team needs to take care of business this weekend
The hidden secret about Tulane's good first two weeks was the questionable quality of the opponents. Florida Gulf Coast was supposed to be good, but it has failed to score more than four runs in its first eight games and is 2-3 in its five games not involving Tulane, losing two of three to Kent State and to FAU while beating Eastern Michigan. ULL is 2-7 and has scored two or fewer runs in six games. Cal State Fullerton is 3-5, and its huge series win at Stanford to start the year does not look as impressive now that the Cardinal is 1-7, having been outscored 36-14 in its last five games.
In other words, last night's debacle against UNO cannot be repeated even once against Middle Tennessee. Tulane's weekend pitching appears to be the real deal, with Braden Olthoff a breakout star, Luke Jannetta terrific out of the bullpen and Donovan Benoit a solid Sunday starter with plus stuff. If Saturday starter Jack Aldrich improves, Tulane should be in good shape on weekends with bullpen guys like Clifton Slagel (7.1 innings, no runs) and Justin Campbell available. It is not clear whether Keagan Gillies is the answer as the closer, but he will get more opportunities when he returns from his shin bruise.
As for last night, it was just an awful performance all the way around. A host of pitchers proved they cannot be trusted. The bats were nonexistent against a former weekend starter who had good stuff. And the defense was terrible, a clear sign of an unfocused team. You'd think they'd get tired of losing to UNO, but they only put up token resistance against an inspired opponent. I don't get it. But it should not bleed into the weekend because the pitchers are different.
By the way, I've gotten a ton of twitter questions about why Krishna Raj is not pitching more. He made his debut last night, but the simple reason is he has no command of his pitches and did not have any command for most of last year. After going 8 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run as a freshman, he gave up 29 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings with 25 walks and 11 hit batsman. That's an ERA of 7.54. On a staff with terrible pitching, he was below average except for his first three outings. He did not have a good fall or preseason, either. At the moment he is not in the picture for meaningful innings.
Part one of the quarterback decision begins next Tuesday when the delayed spring practice begins and Michael Pratt, Keon Howard and Christian Daniels begin trying to show they can be Tulane's starting QB next fall. We all discount Daniels and probably for good reason, but he is still on the roster and will get his shot. I'm skeptical about Howard because of his ball-security issues at Southern Miss, but Tulane would not have recruited him if he had not shot. Pratt comes with high credentials but not the type of credentials that usually lead to first-year success. Maybe he is the exception, although it is hard to get a true read in practice how a newcomer will perform in games. I still expect Tulane to bring in a grad transfer in the summer because Willie Fritz does not want to have a regression and simply cannot trust the guys he currently has on the roster. Maybe 15 practices in the next month will change my mind.
Tulane also needs to find a nickelback, with K.J. Vault the only returning player at the postion, figure out the exact roles for its five talented running backs (Amare Jones, Tyjae Spears, Cameron Carroll, Stephon Huderson and Ygenio Booker), find a starting offensive tackle and guard on the right side (Sincere Haynesworth at center, Corey Dublin at left guard and Joey Claybook at left tackle are set), find out whether Jesus Machado is ready to contribute and linebacker and whether Kevin Henry is good enough to start, among many other things. But all eyes will be on the quarterback and an unproven group of receivers, with Oklahoma grad transfer Mykel Jones and the Watts twins trying to prove they make up for the loss of Darnell Mooney and Jalen McCleskey. I will have full coverage of every practice I attend, which should be all of them unless the Advocate decides to send me to Fort Worth for the AAC basketball tournament.
2) Tulane is going to finish last in the AAC in hoops
What Ron Hunter guaranteed would not happen almost certainly will happen unless Tulane beats Memphis and UConn at home AND at least one of three teams, ECU, USF and UCF, loses all of its remaining games. The Wave loses every two- and multiple-team tiebreaker for the bottom seed, so it will have to be free and clear of a team to avoid being the bottom seed. Assuming it is the bottom seed, its first game will be the second game on Thursday, March 12 in Fort Worth, Texas, and its opponent will be the No. 5 seed, most likely either SMU or Wichita State. Win that, and the Wave would be in the quarterfinal in the second game on Friday against the No. 4 seed, again most likely either SMU or Wichita State.
Since leaving the SEC, Tulane has won two conference tourney games only once, in 2016 in an unlikely run under about-to-be fired coach Ed Conroy. Hunter's team has an outside chance to do it the way it is playing right now, but Jordan Walker will have to continue playing well, Teshaun Hightower needs to keep hitting 3s to open up his driving lanes and the Wave needs either K.J. Lawson or Nic Thomas to get hot from outside. We know Christion Thompson will play well, and Lawson likely will play well, too. This is the team I thought we would see all year, but it disappeared for an eight-game stretch of awful basketball. The future is bright under Hunter, but it would be nice for the present to feature a positive run in Fort Worth.
3) The baseball team needs to take care of business this weekend
The hidden secret about Tulane's good first two weeks was the questionable quality of the opponents. Florida Gulf Coast was supposed to be good, but it has failed to score more than four runs in its first eight games and is 2-3 in its five games not involving Tulane, losing two of three to Kent State and to FAU while beating Eastern Michigan. ULL is 2-7 and has scored two or fewer runs in six games. Cal State Fullerton is 3-5, and its huge series win at Stanford to start the year does not look as impressive now that the Cardinal is 1-7, having been outscored 36-14 in its last five games.
In other words, last night's debacle against UNO cannot be repeated even once against Middle Tennessee. Tulane's weekend pitching appears to be the real deal, with Braden Olthoff a breakout star, Luke Jannetta terrific out of the bullpen and Donovan Benoit a solid Sunday starter with plus stuff. If Saturday starter Jack Aldrich improves, Tulane should be in good shape on weekends with bullpen guys like Clifton Slagel (7.1 innings, no runs) and Justin Campbell available. It is not clear whether Keagan Gillies is the answer as the closer, but he will get more opportunities when he returns from his shin bruise.
As for last night, it was just an awful performance all the way around. A host of pitchers proved they cannot be trusted. The bats were nonexistent against a former weekend starter who had good stuff. And the defense was terrible, a clear sign of an unfocused team. You'd think they'd get tired of losing to UNO, but they only put up token resistance against an inspired opponent. I don't get it. But it should not bleed into the weekend because the pitchers are different.
By the way, I've gotten a ton of twitter questions about why Krishna Raj is not pitching more. He made his debut last night, but the simple reason is he has no command of his pitches and did not have any command for most of last year. After going 8 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run as a freshman, he gave up 29 earned runs in 34 2/3 innings with 25 walks and 11 hit batsman. That's an ERA of 7.54. On a staff with terrible pitching, he was below average except for his first three outings. He did not have a good fall or preseason, either. At the moment he is not in the picture for meaningful innings.