I believe Tulane is in the tougher half of the bracket, but often these things don't go as predicted, so it probably doesn't matter. Examples of teams with zero momentum going a long way or winning the tournament are commonplace in college baseball, but it almost never has happened to Tulane.
The last time the Green Wave entered a tournament with no chance to get an at-large bid and won the tournament to get in automatically was 1992, and that tournament was played at home. In the stretch of eight seasons out of the last 11 when Tulane stayed home for the postseason, it never won more than two games in the conference tournament and won its opener only once, in 2012, when I covered the event for this site in Pearl, Miss. but missed the first game, getting there in time to watch the Wave lose the next two in that stupid round-robin format CUSA had for a few years.
Yet, in 2008, when Tulane hosted the CUSA tourney and I covered every game for AP (it has been a long time since AP covered a college baseball tournament; the times have changed), bottom-seeded Marshall made the tourney championship game and lost to No. 4 Houston 3-2 in the championship game. Last year, last-place ECU made it to the championship game. Why doesn't stuff like that ever happen for Tulane?
There's nothing to indicate Tulane will make a run this year, but there never is anything to indicate a bottom seed will make a run before it happens. I'll say this: despite Tulane's awful pitching, it has the starting depth to do it this time unlike last year, when it was impossible to visualize a path in the winner's bracket the way the starters were pitching at the end of the year.
Tuesday starter Keagan Gillies has proven several times this year that he can keep teams off the scoreboard. He has not pitched well his last two outings, but he threw a complete-game gem against UConn in his previous start.
Second-game starter Kaleb Roper, he of the terrific stuff and the lack of numbers to back it up, has allowed one run over the last 11 innings covering two starts.
Trent Johnson, who will start the third game if Tulane is still alive, held a motivated UCF team to two hits in 7.1 innings Friday. He's had a rough year overall, but he is capable of coming up big.
I'm not as optimistic about No. 4 starter Josh Bates, but few teams have a reliable No. 4 starter. He pitched well against Houston earlier this year and has good stuff when he attacks the plate, which he usually has not.
At the plate, Tulane has one of the hottest hitters in recent memory. Grant Mathews has seven consecutive games with two or more hits. Trevor Jensen has been a tough out for a month and has good power. Grant Witherspoon wants to end his college career with a bang. Kody Hoese came out out of recent slump last week. and Luke Glancy is swinging the bat well. The problems come at the bottom of the lineup, where Tyler Heinrichs is 3 for his last 43 and Sal Gozzo is 4 for his last 36. They are rally stoppers, particularly Heinrichs, who appears helpless at the plate. It would be huge if Ty Johnson could play effectively in Clearwater, but from what I've heard about his injured foot, that's not likely.
Look for Houston to pitch Aaron Fletcher on Tuesday. He has the team's best ERA by far (1.82), and normal opening starter Trey Cumbie threw 96 pitchers against Southeastern on Thursday while Fletcher pitched short relief Friday. Clearly, the Cougars plan to go with Fletcher first and then have Cumbie pitch on his normal week's rest if they win the opener. Tulane fared OK against Fletcher at Turchin, getting eight hits (all singles) and two runs in six innings, but he is capable of shutting down anyone if he is on. He does not have overpowering stuff, but sharp lefties usually give this team fits.
I still believe East Carolina, the 4 seed, is the best team in the league. I'm not impressed with the Pirates' ace, but he presumably will throw against UCF, the No. 5 seed, on Wednesday, and Tulane struggled to do much of anything against the rest of the staff. UCF's staff is deep, too.
For Tulane, the path to success involves Gillies outdueling Fletcher--Houston is one of the weakest hitting teams in the league--to get in the winners' bracket, then having a sharp Roper against ECU or UCF. If the Wave won that one, it would be in good position with Trent Johnson or Josh Bates pitching to get it into the championship game. I actually think they might go with Bates in that game, hoping to save Johnson for the championship game and having him available for the final winner's bracket game if they lost with Bates.
Connor Pellerin is fairly reliable out of the pen. After him, it's pitch and pray.
My official prediction for Tulane is back-to-back losses against Houston and either ECU or UCF. What we've seen this season indicates that as the most likely path. But I certainly think it is possible for the Wave to beat Houston in the opener, which would change everything. Everyone can beat everyone in the tournament. The regular season proved it.
The last time the Green Wave entered a tournament with no chance to get an at-large bid and won the tournament to get in automatically was 1992, and that tournament was played at home. In the stretch of eight seasons out of the last 11 when Tulane stayed home for the postseason, it never won more than two games in the conference tournament and won its opener only once, in 2012, when I covered the event for this site in Pearl, Miss. but missed the first game, getting there in time to watch the Wave lose the next two in that stupid round-robin format CUSA had for a few years.
Yet, in 2008, when Tulane hosted the CUSA tourney and I covered every game for AP (it has been a long time since AP covered a college baseball tournament; the times have changed), bottom-seeded Marshall made the tourney championship game and lost to No. 4 Houston 3-2 in the championship game. Last year, last-place ECU made it to the championship game. Why doesn't stuff like that ever happen for Tulane?
There's nothing to indicate Tulane will make a run this year, but there never is anything to indicate a bottom seed will make a run before it happens. I'll say this: despite Tulane's awful pitching, it has the starting depth to do it this time unlike last year, when it was impossible to visualize a path in the winner's bracket the way the starters were pitching at the end of the year.
Tuesday starter Keagan Gillies has proven several times this year that he can keep teams off the scoreboard. He has not pitched well his last two outings, but he threw a complete-game gem against UConn in his previous start.
Second-game starter Kaleb Roper, he of the terrific stuff and the lack of numbers to back it up, has allowed one run over the last 11 innings covering two starts.
Trent Johnson, who will start the third game if Tulane is still alive, held a motivated UCF team to two hits in 7.1 innings Friday. He's had a rough year overall, but he is capable of coming up big.
I'm not as optimistic about No. 4 starter Josh Bates, but few teams have a reliable No. 4 starter. He pitched well against Houston earlier this year and has good stuff when he attacks the plate, which he usually has not.
At the plate, Tulane has one of the hottest hitters in recent memory. Grant Mathews has seven consecutive games with two or more hits. Trevor Jensen has been a tough out for a month and has good power. Grant Witherspoon wants to end his college career with a bang. Kody Hoese came out out of recent slump last week. and Luke Glancy is swinging the bat well. The problems come at the bottom of the lineup, where Tyler Heinrichs is 3 for his last 43 and Sal Gozzo is 4 for his last 36. They are rally stoppers, particularly Heinrichs, who appears helpless at the plate. It would be huge if Ty Johnson could play effectively in Clearwater, but from what I've heard about his injured foot, that's not likely.
Look for Houston to pitch Aaron Fletcher on Tuesday. He has the team's best ERA by far (1.82), and normal opening starter Trey Cumbie threw 96 pitchers against Southeastern on Thursday while Fletcher pitched short relief Friday. Clearly, the Cougars plan to go with Fletcher first and then have Cumbie pitch on his normal week's rest if they win the opener. Tulane fared OK against Fletcher at Turchin, getting eight hits (all singles) and two runs in six innings, but he is capable of shutting down anyone if he is on. He does not have overpowering stuff, but sharp lefties usually give this team fits.
I still believe East Carolina, the 4 seed, is the best team in the league. I'm not impressed with the Pirates' ace, but he presumably will throw against UCF, the No. 5 seed, on Wednesday, and Tulane struggled to do much of anything against the rest of the staff. UCF's staff is deep, too.
For Tulane, the path to success involves Gillies outdueling Fletcher--Houston is one of the weakest hitting teams in the league--to get in the winners' bracket, then having a sharp Roper against ECU or UCF. If the Wave won that one, it would be in good position with Trent Johnson or Josh Bates pitching to get it into the championship game. I actually think they might go with Bates in that game, hoping to save Johnson for the championship game and having him available for the final winner's bracket game if they lost with Bates.
Connor Pellerin is fairly reliable out of the pen. After him, it's pitch and pray.
My official prediction for Tulane is back-to-back losses against Houston and either ECU or UCF. What we've seen this season indicates that as the most likely path. But I certainly think it is possible for the Wave to beat Houston in the opener, which would change everything. Everyone can beat everyone in the tournament. The regular season proved it.
