Here are my thoughts after spending the week looking at Tulane and researching UNC Wilmington:
1) UNC Wilmington is no joke at the plate.
At first, I discounted the Seahawks offensive numbers as the product of playing in the Colonial Athletic Association, the 13th-rated conference with no teams inside the top 135 of the RPI other than No. 2 seeds Charleston and UNC Wilmington. But when I looked at their results, I noticed this team averaged exactly six runs in the 16 games it played against regional team, with all of those games legitimate except for two against Columbia. In contrast, Tulane scored 67 runs in 19 games against tourney teams (3.5 average).
UNCW scored 14 runs while getting swept in a three-game series at FSU, losing by a combined four runs.
UNCW scored 28 runs while winning two of three from Maryland, an at-large team that held 32 of its last 47 opponents to four or fewer runs.
UNCW scored at least four runs in its five late-season meetings with Charleston, which many observers thought deserved a No. 1 seed and should have played host to a regional rather than UCSB.
The Seahawks' starting pitching has been woeful, but Tulane's Patrick Duester needs to be sharp tomorrow night or he could have a long evening. Average stuff won't get it done against these guys.
2) David Pierce's decision to start Duester was not a big surprise.
For that matter, with Tulane having four starters who are pretty similar in their performance, he had a lot of different options with none of them being clearly wrong. Here's an article from Tammy at Nola.com on Pierce's thought process with a quote from Duester as well.
http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ss...pierce_says.html#incart_2box_tulane_index.ssf
Duester was Tulane's best starter in Clearwater, going seven innings and allowing one run while beating UConn. Although he had control issues, they weren't as severe as Alex Massey's or Corey Merrill's. He threw a career-high eight strikeouts in Tulane's win at UNCW on March 31, allowing eight hits in 5.2 innings (three runs). And, just as significantly, he never was an option to pitch against LSU if the Wave wins after getting beaten twice by the Tigers in the regular season, giving up five runs in 3.1 innings the first time before faring better at Alex Box Stadium. LSU already has seen him, and Tulane needs to use a guy the Tigers have not faced. It will be either Merrill or Massey, who went one inning in relief in the first meeting. Merrill, who pitched two scoreless innings as the starter in Tulane's 4-3, 11-inning victory against LSU at Turchin last year, would be the likely choice.
3) Tulane needs to do its damage in the first six innings.
The Wave had six runs by the end of the sixth in Wilmington earlier this year on the way to its 8-4 win and could use similar success this time. Seahawks starter Ryan Foster (6-1, 4.42 ERA) has been hit hard in his last six outings, giving up 47 hits and 28 runs in 32.1 innings (wow, that's bad). Tulane struggled against an ECU pitcher with similarly bad numbers (though not bad) in the AAC tournament and cannot afford another mediocre outing against a guy struggling this much. The Wave has hit better than .300 as a team in the last five games, getting consistent production from Garrett Deschamp, Richard Carthon, Hunter Williams and Tyler Wilson. Stephen Alemais has been good all year, so this is not the same anemic lineup that struggled to score for much of the year.
4) The revamped infield needs to sparkle.
Because Jake Willsey has three games left on his suspension, Tulane will stick with the three-player shift it used in his absence in the final game at the AAC tournament, with Deschamp moving from first to second, Tyler Wilson moving to first from third and Hunter Hope reclaiming his starting spot at third. For a full story on the infield, here's Scott Kushner's piece in The Advocate:
http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/sports/tulane/12488792-123/green-wave-adapts-to-second
Hope is good at third base. The question is whether Deschamp, who was playing quite well at first, can come close to duplicating Willsey's smoothness and chemistry with Alemais, one of Tulane's best strengths during the year. Against a good offensive team like UNCW, Tulane cannot afford to make mistakes that give the Seahawks extra chances or fail to take advantage of double-play opportunities.
5) Play relaxed
Pierce stressed this factor the day Tulane received its regional bid. After playing under intense pressure in the final month to get into the tournament, it is time to enjoy the experience and loosen up. This is a game Tulane should win even thought it is the lower seed, but UNC Wilmington, which has been to regionals in three of the last four years, enters with much more experience than the Wave. The players absolutely, positively would love a shot at LSU on Saturday, but they can't let that motivation become a distraction. If they go out, have fun and swing the bats like they have in the last two weeks, they should be fine.
1) UNC Wilmington is no joke at the plate.
At first, I discounted the Seahawks offensive numbers as the product of playing in the Colonial Athletic Association, the 13th-rated conference with no teams inside the top 135 of the RPI other than No. 2 seeds Charleston and UNC Wilmington. But when I looked at their results, I noticed this team averaged exactly six runs in the 16 games it played against regional team, with all of those games legitimate except for two against Columbia. In contrast, Tulane scored 67 runs in 19 games against tourney teams (3.5 average).
UNCW scored 14 runs while getting swept in a three-game series at FSU, losing by a combined four runs.
UNCW scored 28 runs while winning two of three from Maryland, an at-large team that held 32 of its last 47 opponents to four or fewer runs.
UNCW scored at least four runs in its five late-season meetings with Charleston, which many observers thought deserved a No. 1 seed and should have played host to a regional rather than UCSB.
The Seahawks' starting pitching has been woeful, but Tulane's Patrick Duester needs to be sharp tomorrow night or he could have a long evening. Average stuff won't get it done against these guys.
2) David Pierce's decision to start Duester was not a big surprise.
For that matter, with Tulane having four starters who are pretty similar in their performance, he had a lot of different options with none of them being clearly wrong. Here's an article from Tammy at Nola.com on Pierce's thought process with a quote from Duester as well.
http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ss...pierce_says.html#incart_2box_tulane_index.ssf
Duester was Tulane's best starter in Clearwater, going seven innings and allowing one run while beating UConn. Although he had control issues, they weren't as severe as Alex Massey's or Corey Merrill's. He threw a career-high eight strikeouts in Tulane's win at UNCW on March 31, allowing eight hits in 5.2 innings (three runs). And, just as significantly, he never was an option to pitch against LSU if the Wave wins after getting beaten twice by the Tigers in the regular season, giving up five runs in 3.1 innings the first time before faring better at Alex Box Stadium. LSU already has seen him, and Tulane needs to use a guy the Tigers have not faced. It will be either Merrill or Massey, who went one inning in relief in the first meeting. Merrill, who pitched two scoreless innings as the starter in Tulane's 4-3, 11-inning victory against LSU at Turchin last year, would be the likely choice.
3) Tulane needs to do its damage in the first six innings.
The Wave had six runs by the end of the sixth in Wilmington earlier this year on the way to its 8-4 win and could use similar success this time. Seahawks starter Ryan Foster (6-1, 4.42 ERA) has been hit hard in his last six outings, giving up 47 hits and 28 runs in 32.1 innings (wow, that's bad). Tulane struggled against an ECU pitcher with similarly bad numbers (though not bad) in the AAC tournament and cannot afford another mediocre outing against a guy struggling this much. The Wave has hit better than .300 as a team in the last five games, getting consistent production from Garrett Deschamp, Richard Carthon, Hunter Williams and Tyler Wilson. Stephen Alemais has been good all year, so this is not the same anemic lineup that struggled to score for much of the year.
4) The revamped infield needs to sparkle.
Because Jake Willsey has three games left on his suspension, Tulane will stick with the three-player shift it used in his absence in the final game at the AAC tournament, with Deschamp moving from first to second, Tyler Wilson moving to first from third and Hunter Hope reclaiming his starting spot at third. For a full story on the infield, here's Scott Kushner's piece in The Advocate:
http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/sports/tulane/12488792-123/green-wave-adapts-to-second
Hope is good at third base. The question is whether Deschamp, who was playing quite well at first, can come close to duplicating Willsey's smoothness and chemistry with Alemais, one of Tulane's best strengths during the year. Against a good offensive team like UNCW, Tulane cannot afford to make mistakes that give the Seahawks extra chances or fail to take advantage of double-play opportunities.
5) Play relaxed
Pierce stressed this factor the day Tulane received its regional bid. After playing under intense pressure in the final month to get into the tournament, it is time to enjoy the experience and loosen up. This is a game Tulane should win even thought it is the lower seed, but UNC Wilmington, which has been to regionals in three of the last four years, enters with much more experience than the Wave. The players absolutely, positively would love a shot at LSU on Saturday, but they can't let that motivation become a distraction. If they go out, have fun and swing the bats like they have in the last two weeks, they should be fine.