The season is not over for the Wave by any means but the MLB draft is coming up in less than two weeks-- a time during which several of our players could greatly increase (decrease?) their prospects.
By my count, Tulane has twelve seniors and fifteen other players completing their third year of college who could theoretically be chosen in that draft.
Seniors (12):
Emerson Gibbs: Gibbs doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he has excellent control and a steady hand on the throttle. I doubt he’ll be an early draft choice, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t drafted. He’s a tough kid who has improved greatly since arriving on campus.
Alex Massey: Not that he's had a bad year (he hasn't), but Massey hasn’t had quite the year I'd hoped for coming off of last season. But he has good stuff, improved control, and had some very good games. I think he could be drafted fairly late. If not, I expect he’ll get a shot at signing as a free agent.
I don’t think any of our other seniors are likely to be drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised if Duester or Simms has a chance at free agency. Both have pretty good stuff but have suffered from control problems. Since MLB signs on “potential,” either might have a shot, though, at age 24, Simms time has probably past. Of course, Duester is 22, so the same might be said of him. I don’t see Carthon, Yandel, Gross, Pierce, Burns, or Braud getting the opportunity. Additionally, two redshirt juniors, Rankin and Steele, were honored on senior day and are apparently foregoing their redshirt senior season to start life outside of baseball.
Juniors (10):
Stephen Alemais: Alemais has tremendous range at short stop and a major league arm, though he seems to “blow’ some relatively “easy” chances. He has good speed and is a threat to run, though I doubt he’ll be a major threat in the pro’s. At bat, he’s very aggressive. And, I don’t have any problem with him hitting the first good pitch he sees, but he swings at too many “bad pitches” early in the count. Nonetheless, he’s a solid prospect and, in my opinion, could go in the early mid-rounds. I expect him to sign with someone, regardless. It’s almost guaranteed he won’t be back.
Jake Rogers: Rogers is another junior virtually guaranteed to be drafted fairly early. His strength is as a defensive catcher who blocks a lot of bad pitches and has a spectacular arm. He releases quickly, accurately, and puts something on it. Can’t ask for much more! Better still, his batting has improved markedly over three years. He hit .202 as a freshman and .227 as a sophomore, but has raised that to .260 so far this year, with his power numbers increasing in similar fashion. Yet, he is still not a great threat at the plate. Depending on the money he is offered, I think he should consider returning for his senior year to improve his hitting even more. The only downsides to that are potential injuries and the reduced leverage he would have after a senior year. Tough choice; again, depending on the money. I certainly wish him the best regardless of his choice. Would love to have him back but don’t expect it.
Hunter Hope: After his sophomore year when his batting average dropped from .261 to .230 and he struck out almost 40% of the time, I wasn’t sure he’d even start this year. After a slow beginning to the season, he had a strong streak through most of March, April and early May. Unfortunately, a recent slump has seen his batting average drop from above .300 to the current .271 and he still strikes out far too often (38% so far this year). But, his fielding is “top tier.” He makes all of the plays, has good range, and a very strong arm, while, like Alemais, occasionally “blows” an easy chance. I think he could be drafted in the later rounds and might receive enough money for him to sign. HIs upside in staying in school revolves around achieving better plate discipline and cutting back on his strikeouts. If he could do that and retain his obvious HR potential, he could really increase his draft stock after next season. Hope
to see him back.
Corey Merrill: Through the first few games he pitched this year, Merrill looked like a sure early round draft choice. Following a year in which he posted a 2.12 ERA, he was pitching at least as well. His control was actually better and he was striking out more than one man per inning—good numbers. Then, the injury. Since his return, his numbers continue to be excellent and his ERA for the year is down to 1.99 and he’s striking out 10.7 men per nine innings. Depending on his perceived health (which appears to be good), I expect him to be drafted. I personally think he’d be better off getting 100% healthy, increasing his arm strength, and returning to Tulane next year, but who knows? A lot of us dreamed of playing professional baseball and turning down the opportunity, even when it’s likely only to delay it, has to be a tough decision.
Jeremy Montalbano: Montalbano could also be drafted and, though I doubt it, I don’t think it would be a big stretch. To me, he simply doesn’t yet have a position to play, and his offensive output, while good (.276 with 11 HR's), hasn’t been such to generate the necessary interest for a DH-only guy at the start of his career. Even before his injury, when he started three games, we had at least two catchers who were better defensively. And catcher is what he needs to play to improve his MLB potential. Even in the unlikely event he is drafted, I think he has a great chance to up his position with another year. He’s obviously a patient young man, sitting out last year to play for the Wave. I hope to see him back.
Lex Kaplan: Kaplan has bumped his batting average up from .173 to .243. to the current .271 over the past three years, which says a lot about his effort and the coaching he’s received. That he came back from a season-threatening injury says even more about his toughness and dedication. He still has a lot of trouble with lefties but has improved significantly. He’s another guy who I doubt gets drafted and, if so, I would recommend returning to Tulane for his senior season. A .300+ season with ten or more home runs next year could improve his status.
Hunter Williams: Williams was our second best hitter last year (based on batting average) but started this season going 0-13 and then missing 22 games due to injury. Since then, despite a recent slump, he’s hit .300 with some impressive, and important, HR’s. He’s also become a very good defensive first baseman. I’d be surprised (shocked) if he were drafted and expect him back next year.
Jake Willsey: Jake’s had a big year. He’s a solid defensive second baseman and really good making the pivot on double plays. After showing no power his first two years, he’s hit 10 HR’s so far this year and after getting his batting average up to .300, has settled back to .281. Could he be drafted? Unlikely, but possible. He swings at a lot of bad pitches and strikes out a lot. His 56 K’s and 19 BB’s is roughly the same ratio as Hunter Hope’s. I look for him to come back next year and have even a bigger year.
Our other juniors—DeHart, and Colletti, are simply not potential draftees at this point. Neither one had very good years. Who knows after another year?
Redshirt Sophomores (5):
J.P. France: As a true freshman, France began his career as our Friday night starter, pitching seven innings of shutout ball on opening day, 2014. He didn’t fare as well in his next few starts and ended that season in the bullpen. After sitting out 2015 with an injury, he has come back strong this year and, before a rough start against Houston, had an ERA below 3.00. Even now, it’s a very respectable 3.22, and he is a key element in our pitching staff. I’d be surprised if he is drafted, but he is eligible and there is an outside possibility. If I were him, however, I’d be coming back next year to show what I can do as a weekend starter. He’d still have the leverage of another year.
Rowland, Brown, Bjorngjeld, and Oakley are also completing their third year but won’t be drafted.
Incoming Players
I really don’t know too much about our incoming players, but several are well thought of by Perfect Game. The most impressive may be Brandon Fraley, who is the younger brother of LSU star, Jake Fraley. Brandon is rated a 10.0 by Perfect Game, has a 92+ mph fastball and the fastest bat speed I’ve seen in a long time. He’s a right handed pitcher/hitter who could be our first true two way player in a while-- if he makes it to campus.
Roll Wave!!!
By my count, Tulane has twelve seniors and fifteen other players completing their third year of college who could theoretically be chosen in that draft.
Seniors (12):
Emerson Gibbs: Gibbs doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he has excellent control and a steady hand on the throttle. I doubt he’ll be an early draft choice, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t drafted. He’s a tough kid who has improved greatly since arriving on campus.
Alex Massey: Not that he's had a bad year (he hasn't), but Massey hasn’t had quite the year I'd hoped for coming off of last season. But he has good stuff, improved control, and had some very good games. I think he could be drafted fairly late. If not, I expect he’ll get a shot at signing as a free agent.
I don’t think any of our other seniors are likely to be drafted but I wouldn’t be surprised if Duester or Simms has a chance at free agency. Both have pretty good stuff but have suffered from control problems. Since MLB signs on “potential,” either might have a shot, though, at age 24, Simms time has probably past. Of course, Duester is 22, so the same might be said of him. I don’t see Carthon, Yandel, Gross, Pierce, Burns, or Braud getting the opportunity. Additionally, two redshirt juniors, Rankin and Steele, were honored on senior day and are apparently foregoing their redshirt senior season to start life outside of baseball.
Juniors (10):
Stephen Alemais: Alemais has tremendous range at short stop and a major league arm, though he seems to “blow’ some relatively “easy” chances. He has good speed and is a threat to run, though I doubt he’ll be a major threat in the pro’s. At bat, he’s very aggressive. And, I don’t have any problem with him hitting the first good pitch he sees, but he swings at too many “bad pitches” early in the count. Nonetheless, he’s a solid prospect and, in my opinion, could go in the early mid-rounds. I expect him to sign with someone, regardless. It’s almost guaranteed he won’t be back.
Jake Rogers: Rogers is another junior virtually guaranteed to be drafted fairly early. His strength is as a defensive catcher who blocks a lot of bad pitches and has a spectacular arm. He releases quickly, accurately, and puts something on it. Can’t ask for much more! Better still, his batting has improved markedly over three years. He hit .202 as a freshman and .227 as a sophomore, but has raised that to .260 so far this year, with his power numbers increasing in similar fashion. Yet, he is still not a great threat at the plate. Depending on the money he is offered, I think he should consider returning for his senior year to improve his hitting even more. The only downsides to that are potential injuries and the reduced leverage he would have after a senior year. Tough choice; again, depending on the money. I certainly wish him the best regardless of his choice. Would love to have him back but don’t expect it.
Hunter Hope: After his sophomore year when his batting average dropped from .261 to .230 and he struck out almost 40% of the time, I wasn’t sure he’d even start this year. After a slow beginning to the season, he had a strong streak through most of March, April and early May. Unfortunately, a recent slump has seen his batting average drop from above .300 to the current .271 and he still strikes out far too often (38% so far this year). But, his fielding is “top tier.” He makes all of the plays, has good range, and a very strong arm, while, like Alemais, occasionally “blows” an easy chance. I think he could be drafted in the later rounds and might receive enough money for him to sign. HIs upside in staying in school revolves around achieving better plate discipline and cutting back on his strikeouts. If he could do that and retain his obvious HR potential, he could really increase his draft stock after next season. Hope
to see him back.Corey Merrill: Through the first few games he pitched this year, Merrill looked like a sure early round draft choice. Following a year in which he posted a 2.12 ERA, he was pitching at least as well. His control was actually better and he was striking out more than one man per inning—good numbers. Then, the injury. Since his return, his numbers continue to be excellent and his ERA for the year is down to 1.99 and he’s striking out 10.7 men per nine innings. Depending on his perceived health (which appears to be good), I expect him to be drafted. I personally think he’d be better off getting 100% healthy, increasing his arm strength, and returning to Tulane next year, but who knows? A lot of us dreamed of playing professional baseball and turning down the opportunity, even when it’s likely only to delay it, has to be a tough decision.
Jeremy Montalbano: Montalbano could also be drafted and, though I doubt it, I don’t think it would be a big stretch. To me, he simply doesn’t yet have a position to play, and his offensive output, while good (.276 with 11 HR's), hasn’t been such to generate the necessary interest for a DH-only guy at the start of his career. Even before his injury, when he started three games, we had at least two catchers who were better defensively. And catcher is what he needs to play to improve his MLB potential. Even in the unlikely event he is drafted, I think he has a great chance to up his position with another year. He’s obviously a patient young man, sitting out last year to play for the Wave. I hope to see him back.
Lex Kaplan: Kaplan has bumped his batting average up from .173 to .243. to the current .271 over the past three years, which says a lot about his effort and the coaching he’s received. That he came back from a season-threatening injury says even more about his toughness and dedication. He still has a lot of trouble with lefties but has improved significantly. He’s another guy who I doubt gets drafted and, if so, I would recommend returning to Tulane for his senior season. A .300+ season with ten or more home runs next year could improve his status.
Hunter Williams: Williams was our second best hitter last year (based on batting average) but started this season going 0-13 and then missing 22 games due to injury. Since then, despite a recent slump, he’s hit .300 with some impressive, and important, HR’s. He’s also become a very good defensive first baseman. I’d be surprised (shocked) if he were drafted and expect him back next year.
Jake Willsey: Jake’s had a big year. He’s a solid defensive second baseman and really good making the pivot on double plays. After showing no power his first two years, he’s hit 10 HR’s so far this year and after getting his batting average up to .300, has settled back to .281. Could he be drafted? Unlikely, but possible. He swings at a lot of bad pitches and strikes out a lot. His 56 K’s and 19 BB’s is roughly the same ratio as Hunter Hope’s. I look for him to come back next year and have even a bigger year.
Our other juniors—DeHart, and Colletti, are simply not potential draftees at this point. Neither one had very good years. Who knows after another year?
Redshirt Sophomores (5):
J.P. France: As a true freshman, France began his career as our Friday night starter, pitching seven innings of shutout ball on opening day, 2014. He didn’t fare as well in his next few starts and ended that season in the bullpen. After sitting out 2015 with an injury, he has come back strong this year and, before a rough start against Houston, had an ERA below 3.00. Even now, it’s a very respectable 3.22, and he is a key element in our pitching staff. I’d be surprised if he is drafted, but he is eligible and there is an outside possibility. If I were him, however, I’d be coming back next year to show what I can do as a weekend starter. He’d still have the leverage of another year.
Rowland, Brown, Bjorngjeld, and Oakley are also completing their third year but won’t be drafted.
Incoming Players
I really don’t know too much about our incoming players, but several are well thought of by Perfect Game. The most impressive may be Brandon Fraley, who is the younger brother of LSU star, Jake Fraley. Brandon is rated a 10.0 by Perfect Game, has a 92+ mph fastball and the fastest bat speed I’ve seen in a long time. He’s a right handed pitcher/hitter who could be our first true two way player in a while-- if he makes it to campus.
Roll Wave!!!
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