Tulane needed to win two games at ECU to give itself a good chance for an at-large bid for a regional, and it did not happen. The Green Wave was fortunate to win one game, getting a clutch home run from Ethan Groff and a big-time closing performance from Keagan Gillies to win the third game by one run but was otherwise outclassed for the entire weekend. Travis Jewett is now 3-10 against ECU with three one-one wins while being outscored 93-31 in the 10 losses.
The big disappointment over the weekend was the performance of all four starting pitchers. East Carolina is a very good hitting team, but Tulane's strength became a weakness. Braden Olthoff, who has been money in virtually every pressure situation in his two-year career, had little movement on his breaking balls and was lucky to get through three innings relatively unscathed before getting lit up in the fourth. The second home run he allowed was a batting practice changeup. Jack Aldrich had uncharacteristic control issues in the second game, although he might have had better results if not for the most mystifying play of the weekend when Luis Aviles fielded an overthrown ball at first base on a single to left field and had the runner out by about five yards but elected to eat the ball with a runner on third. This probably was the result of all the botched first-and-third situations earlier in the year, but you simply cannot turn down a free out. It turned into a four-run inning that might have been limited to one and a tie game. Donovan Benoit was totally out of sorts early and did a nice job recovering to get into the sixth inning of the lone win, but he was far from sharp and was saved from massing trouble by a batter swinging at ball four for a strikeout and then having a ripped line drive go close enough to the right fielder to get caught, keeping the Wave down by only one run. Tyler Hoffman pitched OK yesterday in a tough day for pitchers with the wind blowing out to right, but he failed to make clutch pitches and was left in two batters too long, giving up six runs instead of four.
Anyway you cut it, that wasn't good enough from the one area in which Tulane had a clear edge on ECU, which is a potential CWS team. The Pirates don't have the arms to match the other top teams in the country, but they are a good bet to win a regional if they host one and they will have a decent shot to win game 1 of a super regional against anyone with Gavin Williams on the mound. If that happened, it would be a matter of their mediocre starting pitching giving them a chance to win a second game. They would be in with a shot the way they rake. I don't think they will make the CWS, but it's possible.
In my estimation, Tulane would have to win seven of its last eight games or finish ahead of ECU at the top of the AAC to give itself a reasonable shot at an at-large bid entering the AAC tourney. Seeing as how UCF won two at ECU and the way Cincinnati hits, it will be a tough task, requiring the starting pitching to be elite. If Tulane sweeps UCF, which is 100th in the RPI, it likely would climb into the high 40s. If it wins three of four from Cincinnati (high 80s) on the road, its RPI likely would climb to near 40. Winning three of four against UCF and all four against Cincinnati would be even better for the RPI.
East Carolina has been a .500 road team this year, but the sample size is too small to be a valid indicator. The Pirates close out with eight games on the road against USF and Cincinnati, and it is hard to imagine them losing more than two of them, but you never know. One thing that would benefit Tulane is for Wichita State to go 7-1 or 8-0 in its final two home series (USF, Memphis), climbing into the top 50 of the RPI. Right now the Shockers are 53, and if they got in the top 50, Tulane would be a respectable 5-8 against tier 1 teams instead of the current 2-8.
With a resume that is very light on quality victories, Tulane has to win a lot of games the rest of the way. It is possible, but it's tough when teams can run willy-nilly on the catchers. It's up to the starting pitchers to dominate and keep guys off the bases in the first place. We will see if they are up to the task starting Friday, when Olthoff hopes to bounce back in a big way.
The big disappointment over the weekend was the performance of all four starting pitchers. East Carolina is a very good hitting team, but Tulane's strength became a weakness. Braden Olthoff, who has been money in virtually every pressure situation in his two-year career, had little movement on his breaking balls and was lucky to get through three innings relatively unscathed before getting lit up in the fourth. The second home run he allowed was a batting practice changeup. Jack Aldrich had uncharacteristic control issues in the second game, although he might have had better results if not for the most mystifying play of the weekend when Luis Aviles fielded an overthrown ball at first base on a single to left field and had the runner out by about five yards but elected to eat the ball with a runner on third. This probably was the result of all the botched first-and-third situations earlier in the year, but you simply cannot turn down a free out. It turned into a four-run inning that might have been limited to one and a tie game. Donovan Benoit was totally out of sorts early and did a nice job recovering to get into the sixth inning of the lone win, but he was far from sharp and was saved from massing trouble by a batter swinging at ball four for a strikeout and then having a ripped line drive go close enough to the right fielder to get caught, keeping the Wave down by only one run. Tyler Hoffman pitched OK yesterday in a tough day for pitchers with the wind blowing out to right, but he failed to make clutch pitches and was left in two batters too long, giving up six runs instead of four.
Anyway you cut it, that wasn't good enough from the one area in which Tulane had a clear edge on ECU, which is a potential CWS team. The Pirates don't have the arms to match the other top teams in the country, but they are a good bet to win a regional if they host one and they will have a decent shot to win game 1 of a super regional against anyone with Gavin Williams on the mound. If that happened, it would be a matter of their mediocre starting pitching giving them a chance to win a second game. They would be in with a shot the way they rake. I don't think they will make the CWS, but it's possible.
In my estimation, Tulane would have to win seven of its last eight games or finish ahead of ECU at the top of the AAC to give itself a reasonable shot at an at-large bid entering the AAC tourney. Seeing as how UCF won two at ECU and the way Cincinnati hits, it will be a tough task, requiring the starting pitching to be elite. If Tulane sweeps UCF, which is 100th in the RPI, it likely would climb into the high 40s. If it wins three of four from Cincinnati (high 80s) on the road, its RPI likely would climb to near 40. Winning three of four against UCF and all four against Cincinnati would be even better for the RPI.
East Carolina has been a .500 road team this year, but the sample size is too small to be a valid indicator. The Pirates close out with eight games on the road against USF and Cincinnati, and it is hard to imagine them losing more than two of them, but you never know. One thing that would benefit Tulane is for Wichita State to go 7-1 or 8-0 in its final two home series (USF, Memphis), climbing into the top 50 of the RPI. Right now the Shockers are 53, and if they got in the top 50, Tulane would be a respectable 5-8 against tier 1 teams instead of the current 2-8.
With a resume that is very light on quality victories, Tulane has to win a lot of games the rest of the way. It is possible, but it's tough when teams can run willy-nilly on the catchers. It's up to the starting pitchers to dominate and keep guys off the bases in the first place. We will see if they are up to the task starting Friday, when Olthoff hopes to bounce back in a big way.
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