Keeping in mind that outside of the AAC and a few teams in the SEC, I cannot name one player in college baseball, here are my predictions for each of the 16 regionals. Sometimes I think it helps to know so little about the players because it takes away all the bias I exhibit when I pick the NCAA basketball tournament, usually favoring the players I like.
OXFORD REGIONAL
The pick: Ole Miss
second choice: Tulane
Analysis: If Tulane hits and gets terrific performances from its starting pitchers, it will have an excellent chance to win a regional for the first time in 11 years. The presence of sterling defensive catcher Jake Rogers gives the Wave a huge advantage. But Ole Miss easily could have been a national seed and will be playing at home in front of rowdy fans. The Rebels are the safe pick. I do believe Utah has a reasonable chance to knock off the Rebels. The Utes crushed the ball during their practice today but have to fight the "happy to be here" syndrome.
CORAL GABLES REGIONAL
The pick: Miami
second choice: no one.
Analysis: I'm not saying the Hurricanes are a lock to win, just that I'm not impressed with the other three teams in the regional. Maybe one of them will prove me wrong and step up and beat the Hurricanes, which would guarantee Tulane a home super regional if it wins in Oxford. Despite winning Conference USA, FAU likely is the fourth best team in that league. Long Beach State, the No. 3 seed, is part of a weak West Coast contingent.
LAFAYETTE REGIONAL
The pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
second choice: Sam Houston State
Analysis: I was impressed by ULL in both games against Tulane this year, and the rest of the Cajuns' regional is week. Arizona finished fourth in a down year for the Pac-12. Sam Houston State is white hot right now but not particularly talented. And if that team could not win a regional in three years under David Pierce, it's hard to see it winning one without him.
STARKVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Mississippi State
second choice: Louisiana Tech
Analysis: Because of history, a lot of people are high on Cal St. Fullerton. Have they paid attention to West Coast baseball this year? This is hardly a vintage Fullerton team, although its pitching numbers are excellent. La Tech, which has not been to a regional since 1987, got hot at the end of the year and can ride that momentum to an upset of the Titans, but no one is beating Mississippi State here.
CLEMSON REGIONAL
The pick: Clemson
second choice: no one
Analysis: Are you kidding me? Okahoma State was the third best team in a down year for the Big 12. Nebraska was the least deserving at-large team in the field and is below .500 against top-100 RPI teams. Clemson caught fire late in the year and should roll through this regional.
COLUMBIA REGIONAL
The pick: South Carolina
second choice: UNC Wilmington
Analysis: Probably another cakewalk, and yes, I realize I've picked all No. 1 seeds so far. I like picking upsets, but this has been a top-heavy year in college baseball. UNCW, as we all know after last year's Baton Rouge regional, can rake, but it gave up 13 runs to South Carolina in a loss earlier this year and has a weak pitching staff. Duke is the least talented of the 10 ACC teams that made the NCAA field.
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Vanderbilt
second choice: no one
Vanderbilt would be very vulnerable if it had not been handed such a weak group of opponents. The Commodores won only one series against an NCAA tournament team. But UCSB, the No. 3 seed, barely finished above .500 in the Big West, played poorly down the stretch and lost almost all of the best players from a more formidable team that hosted a regional and flopped a year ago. Washington gave up more than 30 runs in the last 10 innings to Utah last weekend. I actually could see Xavier, which is barely above .500 but got hot in the last month, upsetting Vandy in the opener, but the Commodores probably would win four straight anyway.
LOUISVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Louisville
second choice: Ohio State
Ohio State I definitely would have picked in a few other regionals--the Buckeyes were by far the best team in the Big Ten down the stretch--but Louisville lost only one home game all year. The bottom two teams appear weak for their seeds--Wright State at No. 3 and Western Michigan, a MAC bottom feeder that won its league tournament, at No. 4.
COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
The pick: Texas A&M
second choice: puh-leez
What do you get when you combine one of the hottest teams in the country with pitiful opposition? A weekend of blowouts at Texas A&M. Minnesota won the Big Ten, which is the only reason the Gophers received an at-large bid with an RPI in the 50s. Good for former UNO coach Tom Walter at finally guiding Wake Forest to the NCAA tournament in his seventh year on the job, but the Demon Deacons don't scare anyone except for No. 4 seed Binghamton.
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
The pick: TCU
Second choice: Oral Roberts
I would not be surprised if Oral Roberts puts a huge scare into TCU on opening night, but the Horned Frogs are too well coached, even in a rebuilding year, to lose twice at home. The No. 2 seed, Arizona State, gave up 31 runs to USC on Sunday. The No. 3 seed, Gonzaga, earned its at-large bid by being road warriors while playing only 10 home games, but the talent level is not there. Look for 4 seed Oral Roberts in the championship round but for TCU to advance.
CHARLOTTSVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Virginia
second choice: East Carolina
It would be funny if Virginia fell short at home a year after winning the College World Series after beginning regional play as a No. 3 seed in California. It might happen, but I can't pull the trigger. I like East Carolina to knock off No. 2 seed Bryant behind terrific pitcher Evan Kruczynski, but the Pirates played their best ball earlier in the year. A lot of experts say Bryant is dangerous, but I can't get past the ridiculously weak schedule that led to it having the nation's best winning percentage.
LUBBOCK REGIONAL
The pick: Dallas Baptist
Second choice: Texas Tech
Finally, I go away from the chalk. Texas Tech has an all-freshman weekend starting pitching rotation and lost two straight in the Big 12 tournament. Dallas Baptist hosted a regional with a better team last year --getting upset in the championship game by 4 seed VCU--but the returning players know what it takes to win. The bottom two seeds, New Mexico and Fairfield, will be cannon fodder.
BATON ROUGE REGIONAL
The pick: LSU
second choice: Southeastern Louisiana
LSU was more vulnerable last year and still cruised through its regional while hardly giving up a run. No. 2 seed Rice fell apart at the end of the regular season, giving up a ton of runs, and the Owls are rarely strong offensively. Southeastern is not playing as well as it did earlier in the season, but it has the pitching and hitting to make the championship round, where its inferiority complex to LSU will kill any chance it has to win.
RALEIGH REGIONAL
The pick: Coastal Carolina
second choice: NC State
NC State is a host almost exclusively because of its RPI and stopped playing well more than a month ago. Coastal Carolina, which has been perennially strong, deservedly lost its chance to host by getting swept at Georgia Tech last month, but that's not the fair representation of the Chanticleers' ability. They just had a bad series. They'll get their ACC revenge this weekend, unless capable St. Mary's trips them up in the opener. NC State might lose to Navy on opening day. The Middies' starter had four shutouts and nine complete games this year.
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
The pick: FSU
Next choice: Southern Miss
This is another vulnerable host I can't pick against because of its regional opponents. Southern Miss, a Tiger at home, has a losing record on the road. South Alabama, which swept a pair of midweek games against the Golden Eagles, has not won a weekend series in more than a month. Fourth seed Alabama State is intriguing after destroying the SWAC, winning all 28 games, usually by lopsided margins. I could see FSU losing its opener to Alabama State, then rebounding to win the regional anyway. Southern Miss has the offense to get to a super regional, but it's doubtful to happen in Tallahassee.
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Florida
second choice: Connecticut
This is the most interesting regional outside of the Oxford regional because of the real possibility of a shocking upset. Florida was No. 1 almost all year and is loaded, but if UConn gets past slumping Georgia Tech Friday, I really like the Huskies to beat Florida on Saturday behind AAC pitcher of the year Anthony Kay. He's unhittable when he's on, and the Gators are not a great hitting team. The problem is Florida would have to lose twice, and with the the best pitching depth in college baseball, the Gators easily could come out of the losers' bracket to win. In fact, that's what will happen.
My super regional picks are Ole Miss over Miami, Mississippi State over ULL, Clemson over South Carolina, Louisville over Vandy, Texas A&M over TCU, Virginia over Dallas Baptist, LSU over Coastal Carolina and Florida over FSU. That's five SEC teams and three ACC teams. Man do I hope I'm wrong.
My national championship pick is Florida over Louisville, but UConn could wreck those plans this weekends.
OXFORD REGIONAL
The pick: Ole Miss
second choice: Tulane
Analysis: If Tulane hits and gets terrific performances from its starting pitchers, it will have an excellent chance to win a regional for the first time in 11 years. The presence of sterling defensive catcher Jake Rogers gives the Wave a huge advantage. But Ole Miss easily could have been a national seed and will be playing at home in front of rowdy fans. The Rebels are the safe pick. I do believe Utah has a reasonable chance to knock off the Rebels. The Utes crushed the ball during their practice today but have to fight the "happy to be here" syndrome.
CORAL GABLES REGIONAL
The pick: Miami
second choice: no one.
Analysis: I'm not saying the Hurricanes are a lock to win, just that I'm not impressed with the other three teams in the regional. Maybe one of them will prove me wrong and step up and beat the Hurricanes, which would guarantee Tulane a home super regional if it wins in Oxford. Despite winning Conference USA, FAU likely is the fourth best team in that league. Long Beach State, the No. 3 seed, is part of a weak West Coast contingent.
LAFAYETTE REGIONAL
The pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
second choice: Sam Houston State
Analysis: I was impressed by ULL in both games against Tulane this year, and the rest of the Cajuns' regional is week. Arizona finished fourth in a down year for the Pac-12. Sam Houston State is white hot right now but not particularly talented. And if that team could not win a regional in three years under David Pierce, it's hard to see it winning one without him.
STARKVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Mississippi State
second choice: Louisiana Tech
Analysis: Because of history, a lot of people are high on Cal St. Fullerton. Have they paid attention to West Coast baseball this year? This is hardly a vintage Fullerton team, although its pitching numbers are excellent. La Tech, which has not been to a regional since 1987, got hot at the end of the year and can ride that momentum to an upset of the Titans, but no one is beating Mississippi State here.
CLEMSON REGIONAL
The pick: Clemson
second choice: no one
Analysis: Are you kidding me? Okahoma State was the third best team in a down year for the Big 12. Nebraska was the least deserving at-large team in the field and is below .500 against top-100 RPI teams. Clemson caught fire late in the year and should roll through this regional.
COLUMBIA REGIONAL
The pick: South Carolina
second choice: UNC Wilmington
Analysis: Probably another cakewalk, and yes, I realize I've picked all No. 1 seeds so far. I like picking upsets, but this has been a top-heavy year in college baseball. UNCW, as we all know after last year's Baton Rouge regional, can rake, but it gave up 13 runs to South Carolina in a loss earlier this year and has a weak pitching staff. Duke is the least talented of the 10 ACC teams that made the NCAA field.
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Vanderbilt
second choice: no one
Vanderbilt would be very vulnerable if it had not been handed such a weak group of opponents. The Commodores won only one series against an NCAA tournament team. But UCSB, the No. 3 seed, barely finished above .500 in the Big West, played poorly down the stretch and lost almost all of the best players from a more formidable team that hosted a regional and flopped a year ago. Washington gave up more than 30 runs in the last 10 innings to Utah last weekend. I actually could see Xavier, which is barely above .500 but got hot in the last month, upsetting Vandy in the opener, but the Commodores probably would win four straight anyway.
LOUISVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Louisville
second choice: Ohio State
Ohio State I definitely would have picked in a few other regionals--the Buckeyes were by far the best team in the Big Ten down the stretch--but Louisville lost only one home game all year. The bottom two teams appear weak for their seeds--Wright State at No. 3 and Western Michigan, a MAC bottom feeder that won its league tournament, at No. 4.
COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL
The pick: Texas A&M
second choice: puh-leez
What do you get when you combine one of the hottest teams in the country with pitiful opposition? A weekend of blowouts at Texas A&M. Minnesota won the Big Ten, which is the only reason the Gophers received an at-large bid with an RPI in the 50s. Good for former UNO coach Tom Walter at finally guiding Wake Forest to the NCAA tournament in his seventh year on the job, but the Demon Deacons don't scare anyone except for No. 4 seed Binghamton.
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
The pick: TCU
Second choice: Oral Roberts
I would not be surprised if Oral Roberts puts a huge scare into TCU on opening night, but the Horned Frogs are too well coached, even in a rebuilding year, to lose twice at home. The No. 2 seed, Arizona State, gave up 31 runs to USC on Sunday. The No. 3 seed, Gonzaga, earned its at-large bid by being road warriors while playing only 10 home games, but the talent level is not there. Look for 4 seed Oral Roberts in the championship round but for TCU to advance.
CHARLOTTSVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Virginia
second choice: East Carolina
It would be funny if Virginia fell short at home a year after winning the College World Series after beginning regional play as a No. 3 seed in California. It might happen, but I can't pull the trigger. I like East Carolina to knock off No. 2 seed Bryant behind terrific pitcher Evan Kruczynski, but the Pirates played their best ball earlier in the year. A lot of experts say Bryant is dangerous, but I can't get past the ridiculously weak schedule that led to it having the nation's best winning percentage.
LUBBOCK REGIONAL
The pick: Dallas Baptist
Second choice: Texas Tech
Finally, I go away from the chalk. Texas Tech has an all-freshman weekend starting pitching rotation and lost two straight in the Big 12 tournament. Dallas Baptist hosted a regional with a better team last year --getting upset in the championship game by 4 seed VCU--but the returning players know what it takes to win. The bottom two seeds, New Mexico and Fairfield, will be cannon fodder.
BATON ROUGE REGIONAL
The pick: LSU
second choice: Southeastern Louisiana
LSU was more vulnerable last year and still cruised through its regional while hardly giving up a run. No. 2 seed Rice fell apart at the end of the regular season, giving up a ton of runs, and the Owls are rarely strong offensively. Southeastern is not playing as well as it did earlier in the season, but it has the pitching and hitting to make the championship round, where its inferiority complex to LSU will kill any chance it has to win.
RALEIGH REGIONAL
The pick: Coastal Carolina
second choice: NC State
NC State is a host almost exclusively because of its RPI and stopped playing well more than a month ago. Coastal Carolina, which has been perennially strong, deservedly lost its chance to host by getting swept at Georgia Tech last month, but that's not the fair representation of the Chanticleers' ability. They just had a bad series. They'll get their ACC revenge this weekend, unless capable St. Mary's trips them up in the opener. NC State might lose to Navy on opening day. The Middies' starter had four shutouts and nine complete games this year.
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL
The pick: FSU
Next choice: Southern Miss
This is another vulnerable host I can't pick against because of its regional opponents. Southern Miss, a Tiger at home, has a losing record on the road. South Alabama, which swept a pair of midweek games against the Golden Eagles, has not won a weekend series in more than a month. Fourth seed Alabama State is intriguing after destroying the SWAC, winning all 28 games, usually by lopsided margins. I could see FSU losing its opener to Alabama State, then rebounding to win the regional anyway. Southern Miss has the offense to get to a super regional, but it's doubtful to happen in Tallahassee.
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
The pick: Florida
second choice: Connecticut
This is the most interesting regional outside of the Oxford regional because of the real possibility of a shocking upset. Florida was No. 1 almost all year and is loaded, but if UConn gets past slumping Georgia Tech Friday, I really like the Huskies to beat Florida on Saturday behind AAC pitcher of the year Anthony Kay. He's unhittable when he's on, and the Gators are not a great hitting team. The problem is Florida would have to lose twice, and with the the best pitching depth in college baseball, the Gators easily could come out of the losers' bracket to win. In fact, that's what will happen.
My super regional picks are Ole Miss over Miami, Mississippi State over ULL, Clemson over South Carolina, Louisville over Vandy, Texas A&M over TCU, Virginia over Dallas Baptist, LSU over Coastal Carolina and Florida over FSU. That's five SEC teams and three ACC teams. Man do I hope I'm wrong.
My national championship pick is Florida over Louisville, but UConn could wreck those plans this weekends.