Although Tulane is one bad series away from kissing any regional at-large hopes goodbye, I don't subscribe to the theory that its only chance at the postseason is winning the AAC tourney.
If the Wave wins two of three from UConn today through Saturday, it will be one game out of the conference lead and will add two more top-50 victories to the six it already has. Given the demanding schedule the rest of the way, I can envision a scenario where Tulane has a whopping 15 top-50 victories heading into the AAC tourney, and it's not delusional, although it definitely will require betting pitching that what we've seen to this point.
Say Tulane beats UConn 2 out of 3, beats USM next Tuesday and loses to ULL next Wednesday (no pitching left), loses 2 out of 3 at Houston, beats LSU, wins 2 out of 3 from ECU, beats Southeastern, wins 2 out of 3 from UCF, wins 2 out of 3 from Houston at home, beats UNO at home and wins 2 out of 3 at Memphis. Based on current RPI numbers, Tulane would be 30-26 overall, 15-9 in the AAC and would be a sterling 15-13 against top-50 competition, which would be more wins at that level than just about any other bubble team.
As has been proven, I'm no RPI expert, but I think results like that would lift Tulane into the top 60, which would put the Wave on the fringe of discussion and allow the selection committee to see the unusual strength of the resume despite the overall record.
Obviously, Tulane might never reach .500, but my scenario does not even include any sweeps. If the Wave continues to hit like it's been hitting in recent weeks, continues to get the sterling infield defense it has received and if Corey Merrill and J.P. France pitch well the rest of the way, it's not impossible. It will require some pitchers to step up like they have not all year and it will require the Wave to win a majority of its close games, but it's doable.
Actually, the key might be tonight because on paper, the starting pitching dual is an epic mismatch between Tim Cate, who has awesome stuff, and Sam Bjorngjeld, who, um, does not. It could get out of hand early, but if the Wave somehow finds a way to win, it will be in excellent position to win its third straight series.
I like Jewett's decision to stick with Merrill and France in their normal spots because Tulane's pitching has been fragile all year and any adjustment could have a negative effect. It could backfire, though, if the Wave loses something like 12-2 tonight.
It should be a very interesting series.
If the Wave wins two of three from UConn today through Saturday, it will be one game out of the conference lead and will add two more top-50 victories to the six it already has. Given the demanding schedule the rest of the way, I can envision a scenario where Tulane has a whopping 15 top-50 victories heading into the AAC tourney, and it's not delusional, although it definitely will require betting pitching that what we've seen to this point.
Say Tulane beats UConn 2 out of 3, beats USM next Tuesday and loses to ULL next Wednesday (no pitching left), loses 2 out of 3 at Houston, beats LSU, wins 2 out of 3 from ECU, beats Southeastern, wins 2 out of 3 from UCF, wins 2 out of 3 from Houston at home, beats UNO at home and wins 2 out of 3 at Memphis. Based on current RPI numbers, Tulane would be 30-26 overall, 15-9 in the AAC and would be a sterling 15-13 against top-50 competition, which would be more wins at that level than just about any other bubble team.
As has been proven, I'm no RPI expert, but I think results like that would lift Tulane into the top 60, which would put the Wave on the fringe of discussion and allow the selection committee to see the unusual strength of the resume despite the overall record.
Obviously, Tulane might never reach .500, but my scenario does not even include any sweeps. If the Wave continues to hit like it's been hitting in recent weeks, continues to get the sterling infield defense it has received and if Corey Merrill and J.P. France pitch well the rest of the way, it's not impossible. It will require some pitchers to step up like they have not all year and it will require the Wave to win a majority of its close games, but it's doable.
Actually, the key might be tonight because on paper, the starting pitching dual is an epic mismatch between Tim Cate, who has awesome stuff, and Sam Bjorngjeld, who, um, does not. It could get out of hand early, but if the Wave somehow finds a way to win, it will be in excellent position to win its third straight series.
I like Jewett's decision to stick with Merrill and France in their normal spots because Tulane's pitching has been fragile all year and any adjustment could have a negative effect. It could backfire, though, if the Wave loses something like 12-2 tonight.
It should be a very interesting series.