1) South Florida at East Carolina
Not that it matters in this game, but I don't have a good read on South Florida yet. The Bulls have started slowly in almost every game before turning it on, quarterback Quinton Flowers has not played as well as he did last year and the kicking team has allowed too many blocked kicks, a concerning feature of the Charlie Strong legacy. But they also still have Flowers, the most dynamic player in the AAC, and more talent player-for-player than any team in the league. East Carolina certainly can't play with USF, but I would not count out Tulane's chances to finally beat a ranked team when the Bulls come to Yulman Stadium in October. And if UCF can stay within one game of USF, their season finale in Orlando will be for the East division championship.
South Florida 48, East Carolina 10
2) Houston at Temple
Houston, which has a terrific defense and a terrible offense, is another mystery in the AAC. Will the Cougars contend in the West or will they disappoint just like last year, when they were better overall than they are this season. But in Temple, they are facing a team with a terrible offense AND defense. The Owls should not be this bad--they were ranked second, fourth and third in the AAC Rivals.com recruiting rankings from 2014-16-- but they are.
Houston 31, Temple 10
3) Navy at Tulsa
This is an interesting game. Tulsa, my preseason West division champion (Phil Steele was high on Tulsa, too), has been horrendous defensively and has struggled in the passing game, too while putting up some amazing rushing numbers in a disappointing 1-3 start. It's hard to imagine what Navy's No. 2-ranked rushing offense will do to Tulsa's No. 128 total defense, but Tulsa had its best defensive game in a 16-13 loss on Saturday to New Mexico, which runs the triple option out of the shotgun. This is a must-win game for Tulsa if it wants to be a factor this season. Navy, meanwhile, can improve to 3-0 in the AAC. It's a rematch of a West-deciding game Navy won 42-40 last year when the teams combined for 1,077 yards and Tulsa got hosed on a call by the officials (sound familiar?) when it recovered a fumble in Navy territory late that was ruled down. Navy picked up a first down seconds later and ran out the clock instead of Tulsa likely driving for the winning score.
Navy 34, Tulsa 27
4) Connecticut at SMU
UConn is fourth from the bottom nationally in total defense but third from the bottom the AAC since Tulsa and East Carolina occupy the bottom two spots. Losing to ECU at home is as bad a loss as possible, and it could get ugly in Dallas. SMU gave TCU a better game than Oklahoma State did before wearing down.
SMU 45, Connecticut 17
5) Memphis at Central Florida
Maybe I have a blind spot about Memphis, but I'm not sure what all the fuss is about yet. The Tigers gave the AAC a huge boost by beating UCLA, but the Bruins are one of the softest teams in the country and were burned for easy touchdown on not one, but two long screen passes in that game. I was not impressed by Memphis last year and am not convinced this team is top notch this season. UCF has played only two games due to Hurricane Irma, destroying FIU (which has won two in a row since then) and Maryland (which had beaten Texas, albeit with Ty Pigrome before he suffered a season-ending injury in that game). UCF, favored by 4 points even thought almost everyone appears to be picking Memphis, is the better team on a neutral field and certainly the better team at home. I think.
UCF 41, Memphis 31
Other thoughs:
---I'm bullish on USC to beat Washington State by at least two touchdowns. People are nitpicking the Trojans too much, particularly Sam Darnold, who is one of the most clutch quarterbacks I've ever seen. Yes, he's thrown seven interceptions, but people were down on Clemson because Deshaun Watson threw too many picks last year, and look how that turned out.
---Tanner Lee needs to have a big game for Nebraska against Illinois. He was booed by Cornhuskers fans after throwing yet another pick six on Saturday--his third in two weeks and a problem that plagued him at Tulane--but he recovered to play pretty well the rest of the way in an uninspiring win against Rutgers.
---Clemson will be too tough defensively for Virginia Tech. The Hokies almost never beat highly ranked teams in the Frank Beamer era, so it will be interesting to see what Justin Fuente can do in a similar situation. His presence gives them a shot. He's a big-time coach.
---If you're looking for an upset that will help the AAC, try Northern Illinois over San Diego State. For the third straight year, experts are talking about the Aztecs going undefeated. The last two seasons they inexplicably lost to South Alabama, and Northern Illinois, which upset Nebraska, fits that profile. It is so hard to go undefeated regardless of your schedule. San Diego State, which will get the Access Bowl berth that goes to the highest-ranked Group of Five team if it wins all of it games, won't get there.
Not that it matters in this game, but I don't have a good read on South Florida yet. The Bulls have started slowly in almost every game before turning it on, quarterback Quinton Flowers has not played as well as he did last year and the kicking team has allowed too many blocked kicks, a concerning feature of the Charlie Strong legacy. But they also still have Flowers, the most dynamic player in the AAC, and more talent player-for-player than any team in the league. East Carolina certainly can't play with USF, but I would not count out Tulane's chances to finally beat a ranked team when the Bulls come to Yulman Stadium in October. And if UCF can stay within one game of USF, their season finale in Orlando will be for the East division championship.
South Florida 48, East Carolina 10
2) Houston at Temple
Houston, which has a terrific defense and a terrible offense, is another mystery in the AAC. Will the Cougars contend in the West or will they disappoint just like last year, when they were better overall than they are this season. But in Temple, they are facing a team with a terrible offense AND defense. The Owls should not be this bad--they were ranked second, fourth and third in the AAC Rivals.com recruiting rankings from 2014-16-- but they are.
Houston 31, Temple 10
3) Navy at Tulsa
This is an interesting game. Tulsa, my preseason West division champion (Phil Steele was high on Tulsa, too), has been horrendous defensively and has struggled in the passing game, too while putting up some amazing rushing numbers in a disappointing 1-3 start. It's hard to imagine what Navy's No. 2-ranked rushing offense will do to Tulsa's No. 128 total defense, but Tulsa had its best defensive game in a 16-13 loss on Saturday to New Mexico, which runs the triple option out of the shotgun. This is a must-win game for Tulsa if it wants to be a factor this season. Navy, meanwhile, can improve to 3-0 in the AAC. It's a rematch of a West-deciding game Navy won 42-40 last year when the teams combined for 1,077 yards and Tulsa got hosed on a call by the officials (sound familiar?) when it recovered a fumble in Navy territory late that was ruled down. Navy picked up a first down seconds later and ran out the clock instead of Tulsa likely driving for the winning score.
Navy 34, Tulsa 27
4) Connecticut at SMU
UConn is fourth from the bottom nationally in total defense but third from the bottom the AAC since Tulsa and East Carolina occupy the bottom two spots. Losing to ECU at home is as bad a loss as possible, and it could get ugly in Dallas. SMU gave TCU a better game than Oklahoma State did before wearing down.
SMU 45, Connecticut 17
5) Memphis at Central Florida
Maybe I have a blind spot about Memphis, but I'm not sure what all the fuss is about yet. The Tigers gave the AAC a huge boost by beating UCLA, but the Bruins are one of the softest teams in the country and were burned for easy touchdown on not one, but two long screen passes in that game. I was not impressed by Memphis last year and am not convinced this team is top notch this season. UCF has played only two games due to Hurricane Irma, destroying FIU (which has won two in a row since then) and Maryland (which had beaten Texas, albeit with Ty Pigrome before he suffered a season-ending injury in that game). UCF, favored by 4 points even thought almost everyone appears to be picking Memphis, is the better team on a neutral field and certainly the better team at home. I think.
UCF 41, Memphis 31
Other thoughs:
---I'm bullish on USC to beat Washington State by at least two touchdowns. People are nitpicking the Trojans too much, particularly Sam Darnold, who is one of the most clutch quarterbacks I've ever seen. Yes, he's thrown seven interceptions, but people were down on Clemson because Deshaun Watson threw too many picks last year, and look how that turned out.
---Tanner Lee needs to have a big game for Nebraska against Illinois. He was booed by Cornhuskers fans after throwing yet another pick six on Saturday--his third in two weeks and a problem that plagued him at Tulane--but he recovered to play pretty well the rest of the way in an uninspiring win against Rutgers.
---Clemson will be too tough defensively for Virginia Tech. The Hokies almost never beat highly ranked teams in the Frank Beamer era, so it will be interesting to see what Justin Fuente can do in a similar situation. His presence gives them a shot. He's a big-time coach.
---If you're looking for an upset that will help the AAC, try Northern Illinois over San Diego State. For the third straight year, experts are talking about the Aztecs going undefeated. The last two seasons they inexplicably lost to South Alabama, and Northern Illinois, which upset Nebraska, fits that profile. It is so hard to go undefeated regardless of your schedule. San Diego State, which will get the Access Bowl berth that goes to the highest-ranked Group of Five team if it wins all of it games, won't get there.