We’re probably not going to get the kind of RPI that ensures our selection into the NCAA regionals. Our conference record, recovery from a 3-12 start, and performance against “top 50” teams are our best hopes for an “at large” berth.
One of the factors most people forget regarding RPI is the home/away factor. Each home win counts 0.7 for RPI calculations, while each home loss counts 1.3. Similarly, each away win counts 1.3 and each away loss counts 0.7. So, although we are now 18-18, for RPI purposes, we’re 13-11 at home and 5-7 on the road for a record of 15.6-19.2. To get to .500 by the end of the season, we need to go 13-7 (no matter the mix of home/away wins and losses). So, if we end up 31-25, our RPI winning percentage will be just above .500. Based on Warren Nolan’s current projection that our end-of-season SOS will by #28 (down from 25 just a few days ago), that would likely give us an RPI in the mid-60’s. That would probably give us a shot (likely slim) to get an “at large” berth in the regionals due to our strong finish, with the AAC tournament a deciding factor. To get to a sub-50 RPI, we now probably must get to a 33-23 record, 15-5 the rest of the way. That would likely win the regular season conference title, also. To me, that would get us in barring a 0-2 conference tourney.
Only results on the field count.
Roll Wave!
One of the factors most people forget regarding RPI is the home/away factor. Each home win counts 0.7 for RPI calculations, while each home loss counts 1.3. Similarly, each away win counts 1.3 and each away loss counts 0.7. So, although we are now 18-18, for RPI purposes, we’re 13-11 at home and 5-7 on the road for a record of 15.6-19.2. To get to .500 by the end of the season, we need to go 13-7 (no matter the mix of home/away wins and losses). So, if we end up 31-25, our RPI winning percentage will be just above .500. Based on Warren Nolan’s current projection that our end-of-season SOS will by #28 (down from 25 just a few days ago), that would likely give us an RPI in the mid-60’s. That would probably give us a shot (likely slim) to get an “at large” berth in the regionals due to our strong finish, with the AAC tournament a deciding factor. To get to a sub-50 RPI, we now probably must get to a 33-23 record, 15-5 the rest of the way. That would likely win the regular season conference title, also. To me, that would get us in barring a 0-2 conference tourney.
Only results on the field count.
Roll Wave!
