With Tulane virtually guaranteed a second straight losing season for the first time since a seven-year string from 1958 to 1964 when it never played more than 25 games, the only hope for salvaging something this season is winning the AAC tourney (though Tulane still might end up with a losing record in that scenario).
The first order of business is qualifying for the AAC tournament. I scoffed when I heard concern about it last week, and I'm still skeptical there could be an issue, but when I looked at it closer, Tulane needs to beat Memphis tonight to avoid any concern.
If Memphis wins tonight, and the Tigers have been abjectly awful on Fridays, the pressure will ratchet up on Tulane. The Tigers use their ace pitcher on Saturdays, and the dude pitched a complete-game four-hitter with 18 strikeouts in his last road start at USF. He has really good stuff and was heralded coming into the year. He is good enough to beat Keagan Gillies and is 2-7 only because Memphis is awful at the plate.
Tulane, of course, is 0-6 in AAC series finales. No matter how bad Memphis is at the plate--really bad. below .200 in conference play, so bad that Jake Gautreau's 2014 team was an offensive juggernaut by comparison--it doesn't take talent to hold the bat at your shoulder, walk to first base, steal second and come around on wild pitches.
I expect Kaleb Roper to win comfortably tonight. Memphis is going with a pitcher who has started four times this year, finally replacing the stiff that had struggled all year, and Roper has good enough stuff to shut down those light bats.
But if Tulane loses, the tenor of the series will change. Memphis is a woeful 2-23 in its last 25 conference series, winning two of three from Cincinnati last year and two of three from USF two years ago, but I would like the Tigers' chances to add a third series win to the list if they win tonight.
Tulane clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins the series. It clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins one game and Wichita State wins no more than one game at home against South Florida. Logically, there is no way Tulane should not clinch.
But if Memphis sweeps, Tulane will be one game in front of the Tigers, losing the tiebreaker and with a trip to UCF on the agenda while Memphis gets Wichita State at home. That would be problematic.
The first order of business is qualifying for the AAC tournament. I scoffed when I heard concern about it last week, and I'm still skeptical there could be an issue, but when I looked at it closer, Tulane needs to beat Memphis tonight to avoid any concern.
If Memphis wins tonight, and the Tigers have been abjectly awful on Fridays, the pressure will ratchet up on Tulane. The Tigers use their ace pitcher on Saturdays, and the dude pitched a complete-game four-hitter with 18 strikeouts in his last road start at USF. He has really good stuff and was heralded coming into the year. He is good enough to beat Keagan Gillies and is 2-7 only because Memphis is awful at the plate.
Tulane, of course, is 0-6 in AAC series finales. No matter how bad Memphis is at the plate--really bad. below .200 in conference play, so bad that Jake Gautreau's 2014 team was an offensive juggernaut by comparison--it doesn't take talent to hold the bat at your shoulder, walk to first base, steal second and come around on wild pitches.
I expect Kaleb Roper to win comfortably tonight. Memphis is going with a pitcher who has started four times this year, finally replacing the stiff that had struggled all year, and Roper has good enough stuff to shut down those light bats.
But if Tulane loses, the tenor of the series will change. Memphis is a woeful 2-23 in its last 25 conference series, winning two of three from Cincinnati last year and two of three from USF two years ago, but I would like the Tigers' chances to add a third series win to the list if they win tonight.
Tulane clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins the series. It clinches a spot in the AAC tourney if it wins one game and Wichita State wins no more than one game at home against South Florida. Logically, there is no way Tulane should not clinch.
But if Memphis sweeps, Tulane will be one game in front of the Tigers, losing the tiebreaker and with a trip to UCF on the agenda while Memphis gets Wichita State at home. That would be problematic.