Good article by Guerry on hosting. Some additional thoughts:
As of May 9th, we are in the top 30 in all five major ranking systems: Perfect Game (#15), Baseball America (#18), D1 Baseball (#15) Collegiate Baseball (#19), and the Coaches poll (#28). Our RPI is at #26. And we’re 8-5 against “top 50” RPI teams as both SELA and Nebraska are now in the top 50 and we went 0-3 against them.
Warren Nolan predicts an 8-1 finish for the Wave—winning all six at home and 2 of three against Houston. According to his model, that would move our RPI up to #24. For what it’s worth, I currently estimate an 8-1 finish would result in a #27 RPI. I calculate we’d need to go 9-0 to finish at #24. 7-2 would drop us to around #33 and each additional loss would drop us a few more slots. But, due to the competition, we will be favorites in every game and heavy favorites in most of them. But, even wins against Memphis and Southern will not improve our RPI; they will likely drop it, depending on other results.
Regardless, with an 8-1 record (and clearly a 9-0 record) I think we have a great shot at hosting, though regional politics could go against us. I don’t think 7-2 would do it unless several teams ahead of us effectively collapse.
Right now, based on the five polls plus the ever-present RPI, only 12 teams are ahead of us in all six rating systems: Florida, Texas A&M, Miami, Mississippi State, Florida State, Louisville, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, North Carolina State, TCU, and Virginia. If the selections were made today, it’s hard to believe that we would be chosen over teams that are ahead of us in all of these. Of course, the selections are not made today.
Four other teams (Ole Miss, LSU, Oklahoma State, and Rice are ahead of us based on composite rankings, with us coming in at #17. Don’t get me started on LSU; they clearly do not deserve a host spot based on “on field” performance, and certainly not ahead of us.
If we go 8-1 our RPI will stay about where it is and our rankings should improve. I’d think we’d look pretty good for hosting depending on the regional biases.
And regional issues could make the “way forward” very difficult for the Wave. Florida, Miami, and FSU are obviously all from one state—a southern state. Virginia, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, North Carolina State, and South Carolina are also from southern states. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and TCU are from Texas and Louisville is from a border state, but a mostly southern conference. So the 12 most likely “hosts” are all from essentially the same region and represent only three conferences. 28 conferences are not included and the entire Northeast, Mid-West, and West would are completely excluded.
Arizona may be a likely host from the west. At least they are represented in all five polls and have a #25 RPI. They are also right behind Tulane in my composite calculations (#18), justly so since we beat them. But, they would probably get a host slot before another southern team. Washington is another west coast possibility though their RPI is only #35 and they are not even included in the Perfect Game rankings, though they are ahead of us in three others.
The mid-west is a problem. Michigan, Creighton, and Minnesota look to be the most likely contenders but none appear to be particularly deserving of a host slot. Their RPI’s are #23, #31, and #34 respectively, but each of them was excluded from the top 30 in two of the five polls, so that can’t be good when you’re looking for 16 hosts.
Nonetheless, I expect at least one west coast team to host as well as one mid-west team. I simply see no way for a northeastern team to get a host spot, no matter the politics.
So, what’s our chance? I’m with Guerry on this; we need to “take care of business” and I think we can make it. If the west and mid-west get one slot each, I think we’re fighting with about four other teams right now for two slots. If we only go 7-2 in remaining games, I doubt we’d make it. 8-1 and no conference tourney loss before selections are made and I think we’re in. Someone else will falter and we’d move up.
Of course, 8-1 will be tough. That means sweeping six games over the next eight days and going 2-1 in Houston. Sweeping six games even against weak competition is a tall order. Mathematically, you’d need to have a 90% likelihood of winning each game to even have a 50% chance of “sweeping” six. If you had a 75% likelihood of winning each game, your chance of “sweeping” drops to less than 18%. Of course, none of that matters; what happens on the field is the only thing that is important.
We need to take them one at a time and see where we end up. You can’t win them all unless you win the first. UNO beat us earlier this year and Southern, who is 8-27, beat Auburn back in February and also #37 RPI South Alabama only two weeks ago. No game in baseball is a “sure thing.”
Roll Wave!!!
As of May 9th, we are in the top 30 in all five major ranking systems: Perfect Game (#15), Baseball America (#18), D1 Baseball (#15) Collegiate Baseball (#19), and the Coaches poll (#28). Our RPI is at #26. And we’re 8-5 against “top 50” RPI teams as both SELA and Nebraska are now in the top 50 and we went 0-3 against them.
Warren Nolan predicts an 8-1 finish for the Wave—winning all six at home and 2 of three against Houston. According to his model, that would move our RPI up to #24. For what it’s worth, I currently estimate an 8-1 finish would result in a #27 RPI. I calculate we’d need to go 9-0 to finish at #24. 7-2 would drop us to around #33 and each additional loss would drop us a few more slots. But, due to the competition, we will be favorites in every game and heavy favorites in most of them. But, even wins against Memphis and Southern will not improve our RPI; they will likely drop it, depending on other results.
Regardless, with an 8-1 record (and clearly a 9-0 record) I think we have a great shot at hosting, though regional politics could go against us. I don’t think 7-2 would do it unless several teams ahead of us effectively collapse.
Right now, based on the five polls plus the ever-present RPI, only 12 teams are ahead of us in all six rating systems: Florida, Texas A&M, Miami, Mississippi State, Florida State, Louisville, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, North Carolina State, TCU, and Virginia. If the selections were made today, it’s hard to believe that we would be chosen over teams that are ahead of us in all of these. Of course, the selections are not made today.
Four other teams (Ole Miss, LSU, Oklahoma State, and Rice are ahead of us based on composite rankings, with us coming in at #17. Don’t get me started on LSU; they clearly do not deserve a host spot based on “on field” performance, and certainly not ahead of us.
If we go 8-1 our RPI will stay about where it is and our rankings should improve. I’d think we’d look pretty good for hosting depending on the regional biases.
And regional issues could make the “way forward” very difficult for the Wave. Florida, Miami, and FSU are obviously all from one state—a southern state. Virginia, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, North Carolina State, and South Carolina are also from southern states. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and TCU are from Texas and Louisville is from a border state, but a mostly southern conference. So the 12 most likely “hosts” are all from essentially the same region and represent only three conferences. 28 conferences are not included and the entire Northeast, Mid-West, and West would are completely excluded.
Arizona may be a likely host from the west. At least they are represented in all five polls and have a #25 RPI. They are also right behind Tulane in my composite calculations (#18), justly so since we beat them. But, they would probably get a host slot before another southern team. Washington is another west coast possibility though their RPI is only #35 and they are not even included in the Perfect Game rankings, though they are ahead of us in three others.
The mid-west is a problem. Michigan, Creighton, and Minnesota look to be the most likely contenders but none appear to be particularly deserving of a host slot. Their RPI’s are #23, #31, and #34 respectively, but each of them was excluded from the top 30 in two of the five polls, so that can’t be good when you’re looking for 16 hosts.
Nonetheless, I expect at least one west coast team to host as well as one mid-west team. I simply see no way for a northeastern team to get a host spot, no matter the politics.
So, what’s our chance? I’m with Guerry on this; we need to “take care of business” and I think we can make it. If the west and mid-west get one slot each, I think we’re fighting with about four other teams right now for two slots. If we only go 7-2 in remaining games, I doubt we’d make it. 8-1 and no conference tourney loss before selections are made and I think we’re in. Someone else will falter and we’d move up.
Of course, 8-1 will be tough. That means sweeping six games over the next eight days and going 2-1 in Houston. Sweeping six games even against weak competition is a tall order. Mathematically, you’d need to have a 90% likelihood of winning each game to even have a 50% chance of “sweeping” six. If you had a 75% likelihood of winning each game, your chance of “sweeping” drops to less than 18%. Of course, none of that matters; what happens on the field is the only thing that is important.
We need to take them one at a time and see where we end up. You can’t win them all unless you win the first. UNO beat us earlier this year and Southern, who is 8-27, beat Auburn back in February and also #37 RPI South Alabama only two weeks ago. No game in baseball is a “sure thing.”
Roll Wave!!!