I did some research last night to find out how road teams fare with short rest in AAC games, the situation Tulane faces entering its monumental clash with Houston on Thursday night.
I only checked games when both teams had the same rest, playing Saturday games the week before and then Thursday. Just because I felt like it, I also checked teams that had six days in between games to get a larger sample size.
The news is better than I expected for Tulane. Since the Green Wave joined the AAC in 2014, there have been nine Thursday games between teams that also played the previous Saturday. The home team is 5-4 in those games.
1) 2018: Temple (home) 31, Tulsa 17 (Temple was favored by 7.5)
Comment: Temple is at least two TDs better than Tulsa anyway, so it does not appear like the short rest for the road team made a difference.
2) 2017: Memphis 42, Houston (home) 38
Comment: Houston was a 2-point favorite and lost, so again, no advantage for the home team.
3) 2016: Houston 40, Cincinnati (home) 16 (Houston was favored by 7)
Comment: Cincinnati actually was winning at the start of the fourth quarter. I remember the game well because I had fallen hard for Houston as a legitimate playoff contender after it beat Oklahoma in its opener, and I defended the Cougars against critics who dismissed them for struggling for three quarters against Cincy. I was wrong. The more I watched Houston that year, the more I realized that team was nothing special with an offensive scheme under Tom Herman I did not like. They ended up losing three AAC games. But I digress. For the purposes of this post, it was the home team that wilted late rather than the road team.
4) 2016: Navy 66, East Carolina (home) 31 (Navy was favored by 8)
Comment: Once again, the road team had no issues. The oddsmakers still had not come to grips with how bad ECU was. This was a mismatch. Navy would have won on 4 days rest if ECU had had two weeks to prepare.
5) 2016: Memphis (home) 34, Temple 27 (Memphis was favored by 10)
Comment: Again, the road team covered, although Temple turned out to be better than Memphis and ended up winning the AAC. That was the only conference game the Middies lost.
6) 2016: Houston (home) 42, UConn 14 (Houston was favored by 28)
Comment: Nothing to see here. Another mismatch that played out just as expected.
7) 2015: Memphis (home) 53, Cincinnati 46 (Memphis was favored by 7)
Comment: Again, the home team won by the exact amount it was supposed to win. Memphis turned out to be significantly better than Cincy that year.
8) 2015: Temple 24, ECU (home) 14 (ECU was favored by 3)
Comment: The Owls were a ranked underdog agains a team that finished with a losing record, and the Owls took care of business.
9) Houston (home) 48, SMU 28 (Houston was favored by 21)
Comment: The Cougars were really good that year and still failed to cover at home, by a point.
There were no Saturday to Thursday short-rest games in 2014, so the final tally is home teams 5, road teams 4. Against the spread, though, the home teams are 1-6-2, with the one victory the result of a dubious spread, so my intuitive thought that short rest benefits the home team clearly is not born out by the results.
For what it is worth, when AAC teams play each six days after their previous games, the home team is 17-13 straight up. Again, nothing special, but I have not broken it down by who was favored.
I only checked games when both teams had the same rest, playing Saturday games the week before and then Thursday. Just because I felt like it, I also checked teams that had six days in between games to get a larger sample size.
The news is better than I expected for Tulane. Since the Green Wave joined the AAC in 2014, there have been nine Thursday games between teams that also played the previous Saturday. The home team is 5-4 in those games.
1) 2018: Temple (home) 31, Tulsa 17 (Temple was favored by 7.5)
Comment: Temple is at least two TDs better than Tulsa anyway, so it does not appear like the short rest for the road team made a difference.
2) 2017: Memphis 42, Houston (home) 38
Comment: Houston was a 2-point favorite and lost, so again, no advantage for the home team.
3) 2016: Houston 40, Cincinnati (home) 16 (Houston was favored by 7)
Comment: Cincinnati actually was winning at the start of the fourth quarter. I remember the game well because I had fallen hard for Houston as a legitimate playoff contender after it beat Oklahoma in its opener, and I defended the Cougars against critics who dismissed them for struggling for three quarters against Cincy. I was wrong. The more I watched Houston that year, the more I realized that team was nothing special with an offensive scheme under Tom Herman I did not like. They ended up losing three AAC games. But I digress. For the purposes of this post, it was the home team that wilted late rather than the road team.
4) 2016: Navy 66, East Carolina (home) 31 (Navy was favored by 8)
Comment: Once again, the road team had no issues. The oddsmakers still had not come to grips with how bad ECU was. This was a mismatch. Navy would have won on 4 days rest if ECU had had two weeks to prepare.
5) 2016: Memphis (home) 34, Temple 27 (Memphis was favored by 10)
Comment: Again, the road team covered, although Temple turned out to be better than Memphis and ended up winning the AAC. That was the only conference game the Middies lost.
6) 2016: Houston (home) 42, UConn 14 (Houston was favored by 28)
Comment: Nothing to see here. Another mismatch that played out just as expected.
7) 2015: Memphis (home) 53, Cincinnati 46 (Memphis was favored by 7)
Comment: Again, the home team won by the exact amount it was supposed to win. Memphis turned out to be significantly better than Cincy that year.
8) 2015: Temple 24, ECU (home) 14 (ECU was favored by 3)
Comment: The Owls were a ranked underdog agains a team that finished with a losing record, and the Owls took care of business.
9) Houston (home) 48, SMU 28 (Houston was favored by 21)
Comment: The Cougars were really good that year and still failed to cover at home, by a point.
There were no Saturday to Thursday short-rest games in 2014, so the final tally is home teams 5, road teams 4. Against the spread, though, the home teams are 1-6-2, with the one victory the result of a dubious spread, so my intuitive thought that short rest benefits the home team clearly is not born out by the results.
For what it is worth, when AAC teams play each six days after their previous games, the home team is 17-13 straight up. Again, nothing special, but I have not broken it down by who was favored.