Boise State is still in the driver's seat and will need to lose for any other team to get the playoff spot, even in the unlikely event Army goes undefeated.
1) Boise State (7-1)
Comment: The Broncos were in a little bit of trouble against UNLV and could not open consistent holes for Ashton Jeanty, but they did enough to win a tough game on the road. No team has a better loss than theirs, by 3 at No. 1 Oregon on a tie-breaking field goal in the final minute. I think San Diego State has a shot to get them this week in a letdown game in Boise. San Diego State was up 12 on Washington State in the fourth quarter on Saturday when a long pass bounced off the hands of an Aztecs DB and into the hands of a Washington State receiver, sparking the Cougars' comeback victory. The Aztecs are better than their 3-4 record indicates.
2) Tulane (6-2)
Comment: Tulane has a chance to build a resume that will be tough to top for any team other than Boise State. Although Oklahoma's descent is not helping, the way Kansas State, ULL and Memphis continue to win is a big deal. A 12-1 Tulane with a good loss to Kansas State and victories against Navy, Memphis, ULL and Army in the AAC Championship Game would be compelling. The Wave still is not clicking on all cylinders on either side of the ball, but it is playing plenty well enough to keep winning.
3) UNLV (6-2)
Comment: I'm not dropping UNLV for losing a hard-fought game to Boise State. The Running Rebels played like they have in every game I've see this year, showing toughness and an ability to hang closer than their talent level suggests. The trick now is keeping that same toughness after an emotional defeat. One slip-up would keep them out of the Mountain West title game, and 3-0 Colorado State has a much easier schedule (no Boise, no UNLV, no San Diego State) in a league that plays only seven conference games.
4) Army (7-0)
Comment: Army has not played anyone, but it has done what good teams should do to inferior opponents--score touchdowns on it opening drive every time and never trail in seven straight blowouts. We will learn how good this team is when it plays at North Texas on Nov. 9 in what should be a bad matchup for the Army defense assuming Chandler Morris is healthy enough to play. A win there would almost assure Army of a spot in the AAC title game.
5) Navy (6-1)
Comment: Navy never was going to beat Notre Dame, but a finger injury that star quarterback Blake Horvath carried into that game gave the Middies no shot to be competitive. He was loose with the ball as a team that had lost zero fumbles all year and committed only two turnovers coughed it up six times against the Irish. That's a recipe for a debacle, which is what it became. If Horvath is OK, I don't see anyone on the November schedule other than Tulane that can trouble Navy, so the Wave game on Nov. 16 will be huge.
6) UL-Lafayette (6-1)
Comment: I'm still skeptical about this team, but the Cajuns gave Tulane plenty of trouble in sauna-like conditions in September and have not lost since then. They face a big test at Texas State tomorrow night before three straight home games against Arkansas State, South Alabama and Troy. None of those are gimmes except for probably Troy, but if they win tomorrow, they will be in good shape to reach the Sun Belt title game. They are not in the picture for a playoff berth.
7) Memphis (7-1)
Comment: I can't fathom how the Tigers cracked the coaches' top 25 this week after needing a long touchdown drive in the last 80 seconds to overcome a 4-point deficit to Charlotte at home. They have a ton of talent, but they look bad for stretches of every game, including giving up 75-yard touchdowns to North Texas on the first two offensive plays two weeks ago. Still, it is hard to imagine them losing to UTSA, Rice or UAB in their next three games, so they very well could be playing for a spot in the AAC championship game when they face Tulane on Thanksgiving. They are dangerous but darned inconsistent.
8) North Texas (5-3)
Comment: The Mean Green is not physical enough to beat the top contenders in the AAC, but man, that pass offense is dangerous. The combination of bubble screens and big plays to an array of talented receivers and one great one make this team a scary opponent. If they beat Army in two weeks, they might not lose again.
9) Western Kentucky (5-2)
Comment: Look for the Hilltoppers to win their next three games for sure, and they probably will beat overrated Liberty on the road after that. My (hypothetical) money is on them to win Conference USA.
10) Old Dominion (4-4)
Comment: The Monarchs nearly beat South Carolina in their opener and have hit their stride in the past two games, winning comfortably at Texas State, which many people thought was the best team in the Sun Belt, and blowing out Georgia Southern, which I thought was the best team in the Sun Belt. We could be looking at an Old Dominion-ULL Sun Belt title game.
1) Boise State (7-1)
Comment: The Broncos were in a little bit of trouble against UNLV and could not open consistent holes for Ashton Jeanty, but they did enough to win a tough game on the road. No team has a better loss than theirs, by 3 at No. 1 Oregon on a tie-breaking field goal in the final minute. I think San Diego State has a shot to get them this week in a letdown game in Boise. San Diego State was up 12 on Washington State in the fourth quarter on Saturday when a long pass bounced off the hands of an Aztecs DB and into the hands of a Washington State receiver, sparking the Cougars' comeback victory. The Aztecs are better than their 3-4 record indicates.
2) Tulane (6-2)
Comment: Tulane has a chance to build a resume that will be tough to top for any team other than Boise State. Although Oklahoma's descent is not helping, the way Kansas State, ULL and Memphis continue to win is a big deal. A 12-1 Tulane with a good loss to Kansas State and victories against Navy, Memphis, ULL and Army in the AAC Championship Game would be compelling. The Wave still is not clicking on all cylinders on either side of the ball, but it is playing plenty well enough to keep winning.
3) UNLV (6-2)
Comment: I'm not dropping UNLV for losing a hard-fought game to Boise State. The Running Rebels played like they have in every game I've see this year, showing toughness and an ability to hang closer than their talent level suggests. The trick now is keeping that same toughness after an emotional defeat. One slip-up would keep them out of the Mountain West title game, and 3-0 Colorado State has a much easier schedule (no Boise, no UNLV, no San Diego State) in a league that plays only seven conference games.
4) Army (7-0)
Comment: Army has not played anyone, but it has done what good teams should do to inferior opponents--score touchdowns on it opening drive every time and never trail in seven straight blowouts. We will learn how good this team is when it plays at North Texas on Nov. 9 in what should be a bad matchup for the Army defense assuming Chandler Morris is healthy enough to play. A win there would almost assure Army of a spot in the AAC title game.
5) Navy (6-1)
Comment: Navy never was going to beat Notre Dame, but a finger injury that star quarterback Blake Horvath carried into that game gave the Middies no shot to be competitive. He was loose with the ball as a team that had lost zero fumbles all year and committed only two turnovers coughed it up six times against the Irish. That's a recipe for a debacle, which is what it became. If Horvath is OK, I don't see anyone on the November schedule other than Tulane that can trouble Navy, so the Wave game on Nov. 16 will be huge.
6) UL-Lafayette (6-1)
Comment: I'm still skeptical about this team, but the Cajuns gave Tulane plenty of trouble in sauna-like conditions in September and have not lost since then. They face a big test at Texas State tomorrow night before three straight home games against Arkansas State, South Alabama and Troy. None of those are gimmes except for probably Troy, but if they win tomorrow, they will be in good shape to reach the Sun Belt title game. They are not in the picture for a playoff berth.
7) Memphis (7-1)
Comment: I can't fathom how the Tigers cracked the coaches' top 25 this week after needing a long touchdown drive in the last 80 seconds to overcome a 4-point deficit to Charlotte at home. They have a ton of talent, but they look bad for stretches of every game, including giving up 75-yard touchdowns to North Texas on the first two offensive plays two weeks ago. Still, it is hard to imagine them losing to UTSA, Rice or UAB in their next three games, so they very well could be playing for a spot in the AAC championship game when they face Tulane on Thanksgiving. They are dangerous but darned inconsistent.
8) North Texas (5-3)
Comment: The Mean Green is not physical enough to beat the top contenders in the AAC, but man, that pass offense is dangerous. The combination of bubble screens and big plays to an array of talented receivers and one great one make this team a scary opponent. If they beat Army in two weeks, they might not lose again.
9) Western Kentucky (5-2)
Comment: Look for the Hilltoppers to win their next three games for sure, and they probably will beat overrated Liberty on the road after that. My (hypothetical) money is on them to win Conference USA.
10) Old Dominion (4-4)
Comment: The Monarchs nearly beat South Carolina in their opener and have hit their stride in the past two games, winning comfortably at Texas State, which many people thought was the best team in the Sun Belt, and blowing out Georgia Southern, which I thought was the best team in the Sun Belt. We could be looking at an Old Dominion-ULL Sun Belt title game.
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