No team with horrid relief pitching like Tulane is a good bet to do anything in a tournament, but I really like the Green Wave's bracket in Clearwater. Travis Jewett could not have handpicked a better one than a No. 2 seed in Cincinnati, which is a sub-.500 team with an RPI above 100, a No. 7 seed in Memphis, which was picked last in the league in the preseason and also has an RPI above 100, and No. 6 UCF, which is playing its best ball of the year but lacks the top-end pitching of UConn and Houston and also got whipped by Tulane with the same pitching matchup that will take place on Tuesday night.
I'll give you two big ifs for that game, and if both of them happen, I believe Tulane will win its bracket. No matter who it would face in the championship game, it would be the underdog (Wichita State ain't winning the other bracket), but they'll cross that bridge when they come to it.
IF Kaleb Roper has his good stuff and IF the bullpen doesn't collapse, Tulane should be able to beat UCF in the opener. Roper was brilliant a few weeks ago against UCF, but he struggled in his next two starts and Jewett has voiced some concerns about his freshness. Here's the deal, though. To a man, the coaches and players have praised Roper since he arrived last year, saying he is as professional as they come, pays tremendous attention to detail and has Friday stuff. He needs to show it tomorrow night, just like he did in the tournament last year against ECU. The reality is he has a 4.90 ERA and has been mediocre this year, but a big-time performance tomorrow would change the narrative.
At least Justin Campbell will be fresh tomorrow. Although he's no sure thing, he is the only reasonably consistent guy out of the bullpen, so even if Tulane has a nice lead going into the seventh inning, it will be nail-biting time, just as was the case Saturday against UConn. Tomorrow needs to be a day when the bullpen is competent.
With the confidence of a win against the best team in its bracket, I really like Tulane's chances of taking care of Cincinnati or Memphis on Thursday. The Wave's least effective starter, Keagan Gillies, will go that day, but that's good because Cincinnati and Memphis have ERAs almost as high as Tulane's. Gillies competes every time he pitches, and as long as he does not get shelled, Tulane should be OK.
The Wave would not be a lock to win the bracket if it started 2-0, but the odds are pretty good with Chase Solesky going against another team''s midweek starter or Tuesday starter operating on short rest Saturday. Solesky looked really good against UConn.
The difference in the two brackets is pretty amazing on paper. East Carolina is a lock to host a regional and maybe get a top 8 seed. UConn and Houston are likely to get at-large bids. Those are the three teams with the best RPIs in the league, and they all are on the other side of the bracket.
Tulane outscored the three teams in its bracket 71-39. It got outscored by the four team in the other bracket 100-79.
UCF will be tough, but it's not like the Knights have been dominant down the stretch. They won a pair of one-run games against Memphis around a five-run loss, looked good in beating Tulane two out of three and beat Houston 11-10 in 11 innings at home to take that series. UCF built its solid RPI by going 13-1 in midweek games. The Knights are 21-19 on weekends.
If Tulane loses to UCF, it's sayonara. The Wave cannot win four games in four days with its pitching. The same is true if it wins the first game and loses the second one. The Wave cannot win three games in two days with its pitching.
But if it gets into the winner's bracket, a real possibility considering its draw, Tulane should reach Sunday's winner-takes-all game.
I'll give you two big ifs for that game, and if both of them happen, I believe Tulane will win its bracket. No matter who it would face in the championship game, it would be the underdog (Wichita State ain't winning the other bracket), but they'll cross that bridge when they come to it.
IF Kaleb Roper has his good stuff and IF the bullpen doesn't collapse, Tulane should be able to beat UCF in the opener. Roper was brilliant a few weeks ago against UCF, but he struggled in his next two starts and Jewett has voiced some concerns about his freshness. Here's the deal, though. To a man, the coaches and players have praised Roper since he arrived last year, saying he is as professional as they come, pays tremendous attention to detail and has Friday stuff. He needs to show it tomorrow night, just like he did in the tournament last year against ECU. The reality is he has a 4.90 ERA and has been mediocre this year, but a big-time performance tomorrow would change the narrative.
At least Justin Campbell will be fresh tomorrow. Although he's no sure thing, he is the only reasonably consistent guy out of the bullpen, so even if Tulane has a nice lead going into the seventh inning, it will be nail-biting time, just as was the case Saturday against UConn. Tomorrow needs to be a day when the bullpen is competent.
With the confidence of a win against the best team in its bracket, I really like Tulane's chances of taking care of Cincinnati or Memphis on Thursday. The Wave's least effective starter, Keagan Gillies, will go that day, but that's good because Cincinnati and Memphis have ERAs almost as high as Tulane's. Gillies competes every time he pitches, and as long as he does not get shelled, Tulane should be OK.
The Wave would not be a lock to win the bracket if it started 2-0, but the odds are pretty good with Chase Solesky going against another team''s midweek starter or Tuesday starter operating on short rest Saturday. Solesky looked really good against UConn.
The difference in the two brackets is pretty amazing on paper. East Carolina is a lock to host a regional and maybe get a top 8 seed. UConn and Houston are likely to get at-large bids. Those are the three teams with the best RPIs in the league, and they all are on the other side of the bracket.
Tulane outscored the three teams in its bracket 71-39. It got outscored by the four team in the other bracket 100-79.
UCF will be tough, but it's not like the Knights have been dominant down the stretch. They won a pair of one-run games against Memphis around a five-run loss, looked good in beating Tulane two out of three and beat Houston 11-10 in 11 innings at home to take that series. UCF built its solid RPI by going 13-1 in midweek games. The Knights are 21-19 on weekends.
If Tulane loses to UCF, it's sayonara. The Wave cannot win four games in four days with its pitching. The same is true if it wins the first game and loses the second one. The Wave cannot win three games in two days with its pitching.
But if it gets into the winner's bracket, a real possibility considering its draw, Tulane should reach Sunday's winner-takes-all game.
