After reading winwave’s excellent analysis I started thinking about why I am having so much trouble coming to a solid prediction on our future this year. One day I think things look pretty good. The next I go in completely the other direction. Glass half full; then glass half empty.
The Glass Half Full
We’ve got 50 lettermen returning, almost half of whom (23) have started at least one game.
Our QB returns with a full year of experience.
Our top three running backs return.
Two of our top five WR’s return.
Our top two receivers at tight end return.
Four of five starters return in the offensive line.
Our kicker, punter, snapper, holder, return men, and all of our key punt and kickoff coverage guys are back.
Three of our four starting defensive linemen return.
Our top three linebackers return
Our Freshman All American corner and leading interceptor returns along with a three year starter at safety.
And our coaching staff now has three years of experience.
Our schedule is not particularly daunting. Duke and Georgia Tech will be tough and probably Central Florida. But with the experience of playing Georgia Tech, Navy and Army should be no problem. We beat UCONN and Houston last year and have them at home again this year, so we should win those. And with Tulsa at home, we should roll them. SMU on the road should prove easy and we owe Temple a thumping, even if it is in Philadelphia. That leaves Memphis on the road, which could be tough. But, with our newly gained maturity and their losing a boatload of seniors, we should win. Our FCS game should be a “cakewalk,” so 9-10 wins is clearly attainable. After winning the “west,” we could face UCF for a second time in the conference championship. We’ll have learned a lot from the first game with them and should triumph in this one. Heck, with any luck, we’ll get to a New Year’s day game as the conference champion, ranked higher than any other G-5 team. How could it happen any other way?
Glass Half Empty
We lost 27 players from our roster including 24 lettermen and 13 players who started at least one game.
And, though we have a lot of players back, exactly how good are they? They went 2-9 against FBS competition and we haven’t seen much “growth” from returning players in recent years. In fact, many have regressed significantly.
Our offensive line loses its most experienced player who signed a pro contract and no one has shown enough to suggest he’s ready to step in to replace him. The line wasn’t very good anyway. Add to that, we’ve lost our best blocking tight end and our best wide receiver.
On defense, we’ve lost our best defensive end and have limited experience among potential backups across the front four.
In the defensive backfield, we must replace Schofield and Doss, two three-year starters, along with heavy contributors, LeBeau and Nixon. Four relatively inexperienced players will have to join Nickerson and Monroe in the defensive secondary. This could lead to a great deal of confusion, missed assignments, and long gains for the opposition.
While we have everyone back on special teams, they may have been the worst in the country. Significant improvement might not get us into the "top 100."
To make matters worse, our head coach and some key assistants haven’t proved they can “do the job.”
Our schedule could also be very challenging. Duke and Georgia Tech will be tough and so will Central Florida and Memphis. Army and Navy have owned us in recent years. We beat Houston last year so they’ll be ready for us; the same with UCONN. Tulsa at home and SMU on the road should provide possible victories, but Temple will tough in Philadelphia. We should win the game against our FCS opponent, so 2-3 wins is most likely. How could it happen any other way?
Half Full? Half Empty? The good news is I don't see it as all the way empty. But, it's not full either.
Roll Wave!!!!
The Glass Half Full
We’ve got 50 lettermen returning, almost half of whom (23) have started at least one game.
Our QB returns with a full year of experience.
Our top three running backs return.
Two of our top five WR’s return.
Our top two receivers at tight end return.
Four of five starters return in the offensive line.
Our kicker, punter, snapper, holder, return men, and all of our key punt and kickoff coverage guys are back.
Three of our four starting defensive linemen return.
Our top three linebackers return
Our Freshman All American corner and leading interceptor returns along with a three year starter at safety.
And our coaching staff now has three years of experience.
Our schedule is not particularly daunting. Duke and Georgia Tech will be tough and probably Central Florida. But with the experience of playing Georgia Tech, Navy and Army should be no problem. We beat UCONN and Houston last year and have them at home again this year, so we should win those. And with Tulsa at home, we should roll them. SMU on the road should prove easy and we owe Temple a thumping, even if it is in Philadelphia. That leaves Memphis on the road, which could be tough. But, with our newly gained maturity and their losing a boatload of seniors, we should win. Our FCS game should be a “cakewalk,” so 9-10 wins is clearly attainable. After winning the “west,” we could face UCF for a second time in the conference championship. We’ll have learned a lot from the first game with them and should triumph in this one. Heck, with any luck, we’ll get to a New Year’s day game as the conference champion, ranked higher than any other G-5 team. How could it happen any other way?
Glass Half Empty
We lost 27 players from our roster including 24 lettermen and 13 players who started at least one game.
And, though we have a lot of players back, exactly how good are they? They went 2-9 against FBS competition and we haven’t seen much “growth” from returning players in recent years. In fact, many have regressed significantly.
Our offensive line loses its most experienced player who signed a pro contract and no one has shown enough to suggest he’s ready to step in to replace him. The line wasn’t very good anyway. Add to that, we’ve lost our best blocking tight end and our best wide receiver.
On defense, we’ve lost our best defensive end and have limited experience among potential backups across the front four.
In the defensive backfield, we must replace Schofield and Doss, two three-year starters, along with heavy contributors, LeBeau and Nixon. Four relatively inexperienced players will have to join Nickerson and Monroe in the defensive secondary. This could lead to a great deal of confusion, missed assignments, and long gains for the opposition.
While we have everyone back on special teams, they may have been the worst in the country. Significant improvement might not get us into the "top 100."
To make matters worse, our head coach and some key assistants haven’t proved they can “do the job.”
Our schedule could also be very challenging. Duke and Georgia Tech will be tough and so will Central Florida and Memphis. Army and Navy have owned us in recent years. We beat Houston last year so they’ll be ready for us; the same with UCONN. Tulsa at home and SMU on the road should provide possible victories, but Temple will tough in Philadelphia. We should win the game against our FCS opponent, so 2-3 wins is most likely. How could it happen any other way?
Half Full? Half Empty? The good news is I don't see it as all the way empty. But, it's not full either.
Roll Wave!!!!