Obviously it's still a long shot with two winning-record teams left and one on the road since Tulane has beaten only one team away from home that finished with a winning record in ages (Houston in 2014), although come to think of it, SMU might not finish with a winning record if the Wave beats the Mustangs.
But since a bowl remains a possibility with the OT win at ECU, here are a few notes:
1) Tulane has to get to 6-6. Tulane ranks 79th out of 129 FBS schools in the APR, so 5-7 will not be good enough.
2) If Tulane gets to 6-6, there probably will be eight AAC bowl-eligible teams, which his how many spots are available for AAC teams assuming it gets a New Year's Six bowl slot, which is a virtual lock. The only way the AAC would miss out on that bid is if Memphis loses to SMU and ECU at home, allowing SMU or Houston to win the West, and then SMU or Houston beats UCF or USF in the championship game. There is no way Memphis is losing to ECU at home, so the winner of the championship game (Memphis, UCF or USF) will be the best team from a Group of Five conference by a long way.
3) The AAC's bowl tie-ins
Auto Nation Cure Bowl (Dec. 16, Orlando) v. Sun Belt
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 19, Boca Raton) v. CUSA
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 20, Frisco, Texas) v. at-large
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 21, St. Petersburg) v. CUSA
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23, Birmingham) v. SEC
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24, Honolulu) v. Mountain West
Military Bowl (Dec. 28, Annapolis) v. ACC
It's a pitiful lineup, but that's life in a Group of Five conference. If Tulane beats Houston and SMU back-to-back, the accomplishment will be much greater than the reward.
But since a bowl remains a possibility with the OT win at ECU, here are a few notes:
1) Tulane has to get to 6-6. Tulane ranks 79th out of 129 FBS schools in the APR, so 5-7 will not be good enough.
2) If Tulane gets to 6-6, there probably will be eight AAC bowl-eligible teams, which his how many spots are available for AAC teams assuming it gets a New Year's Six bowl slot, which is a virtual lock. The only way the AAC would miss out on that bid is if Memphis loses to SMU and ECU at home, allowing SMU or Houston to win the West, and then SMU or Houston beats UCF or USF in the championship game. There is no way Memphis is losing to ECU at home, so the winner of the championship game (Memphis, UCF or USF) will be the best team from a Group of Five conference by a long way.
3) The AAC's bowl tie-ins
Auto Nation Cure Bowl (Dec. 16, Orlando) v. Sun Belt
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 19, Boca Raton) v. CUSA
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 20, Frisco, Texas) v. at-large
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 21, St. Petersburg) v. CUSA
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23, Birmingham) v. SEC
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24, Honolulu) v. Mountain West
Military Bowl (Dec. 28, Annapolis) v. ACC
It's a pitiful lineup, but that's life in a Group of Five conference. If Tulane beats Houston and SMU back-to-back, the accomplishment will be much greater than the reward.
