Although I am in the camp that Tulane will win comfortably, I don't think it's a 100-percent certainty as I may have a month ago.
This has nothing to do with what I've seen at practice--Tulane has concerns on the offensive line, but they won't come into play tonight--but on Grambling's strength. We can slough off Grambling's performance against Arizona last year all we want, but the fact is it was winning 21-3 at the half against a team that took Washington to overtime two weeks later. Arizona turned out terrible, with a pathetic defense, but part of it was that the Wildcats simply quit when the season went down the tubes. Early in the year, they still thought they had a chance to be good, and they clobbered Arizona State in the season finale when they cared for the first time in months.
Contrary to what has been posted on other message boards, Grambling actually was only up 14-3 when Kincade went down. His replacement promptly led the Tigers on a long touchdown drive before the half to make the score 21-3, but Grambling then turned the ball over six times in the second half. Without that absurd total, it might have won because Arizona was playing with its backup QB, too.
If Grambling is as good as it was last year--a big if since it lost all six of its defensive All-SWAC performers--and if Jonathan Banks is shaky in his first start--another big if considering the advantage Tulane has physically on Grambling--and if the Wave makes mistakes, this can be a close game.
I expect Tulane to play very well and win by something like 52-20 because Fritz is a very good coach. But the point spread is only about 19 points, which tells you that Grambling is not considered to be anything like a normal SWAC team and anything like Southern was just a year ago. James Madison won at SMU two years ago.
If Tulane plays poorly tonight, things could get interesting.
This has nothing to do with what I've seen at practice--Tulane has concerns on the offensive line, but they won't come into play tonight--but on Grambling's strength. We can slough off Grambling's performance against Arizona last year all we want, but the fact is it was winning 21-3 at the half against a team that took Washington to overtime two weeks later. Arizona turned out terrible, with a pathetic defense, but part of it was that the Wildcats simply quit when the season went down the tubes. Early in the year, they still thought they had a chance to be good, and they clobbered Arizona State in the season finale when they cared for the first time in months.
Contrary to what has been posted on other message boards, Grambling actually was only up 14-3 when Kincade went down. His replacement promptly led the Tigers on a long touchdown drive before the half to make the score 21-3, but Grambling then turned the ball over six times in the second half. Without that absurd total, it might have won because Arizona was playing with its backup QB, too.
If Grambling is as good as it was last year--a big if since it lost all six of its defensive All-SWAC performers--and if Jonathan Banks is shaky in his first start--another big if considering the advantage Tulane has physically on Grambling--and if the Wave makes mistakes, this can be a close game.
I expect Tulane to play very well and win by something like 52-20 because Fritz is a very good coach. But the point spread is only about 19 points, which tells you that Grambling is not considered to be anything like a normal SWAC team and anything like Southern was just a year ago. James Madison won at SMU two years ago.
If Tulane plays poorly tonight, things could get interesting.
