Tulane's RPI really did not drop at all after the Southern game, and at No. 23 entering the Memphis series, the Green Wave is in good shape in that department as long as it keeps winning. In my view, a sweep of Memphis, a victory against Nicholls State and a series win at Houston (which won't be easy) should be good enough to get Tulane a regional, although nothing is certain since it also matters how the competition performs.
Here's a side-by-side comparison of the leading candidates for the last one or two spots.
TULANE
Record: 33-14
RPI: 23
Minimum requirement: Needs to finish ahead of East Carolina in AAC and avoid a bad loss.
Best case: Tulane is a solid 16-9 against the RPI top 100 and a spectacular 8-2 against the RPI top 25, including 4-0 against nearby regional contenders LSU and Southern Miss. That stat is the money one because no one on the bubble for a regional is close to that percentage. Tulane also has lost only one weekend series.
Biggest issue: The AAC is having a down year, although it had jumped two spots to No. 6 overall this week.
SOUTHERN MISS
Record: 34-14
RPI: 18
Minimum requirement: Needs to finish ahead of Rice and FAU in C-USA. Rice and FAU play in Houston this weekend. USM is tied with Rice at 18-6, a game ahead of FAU, and has a tricky home series v. La Tech and a road series against FIU to close the regular season.
Best case: USM is a solid 18-11 against the RPI top 100 and has played a whopping 19 games against the top 50. C-USA has been stronger than the AAC this year, so winning it would carry more weight.
Biggest issue: The lopsided sweep by Tulane hurts in a side-by-side comparison, and the Golden Eagles are only 2-4 against the top 25.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Record: 31-18
RPI: 21
Mininum requirement: The Cajuns need to sweep Sun Belt leader South Alabama on the road this weekend, a long shot occurrence but one that would that would vault them into the top 15 of the RPI. They are three games behind the Jaguars with two weeks to go and have to win the Sun Belt outright to have a shot at hosting.
Best case: As just stated, the RPI would be extremely high with a sweep of USA. Inexplicably, their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 1 in the nation.
Biggest issue: Aside from the RPI and schedule strength numbers, both of which appear inflated, the Cajuns' case is flimsy. Their 16-12 mark against the top 100 and 6-6 mark against the top 50 is not as good as some of the other regional contenders. One loss in Mobile this weekend would kill their chance to host. The Sun Belt ranks ninth in the RPI, so they have to win it outright.
RICE
Record: 31-15
RPI: 28
Minimum requirement: Needs to win the FAU series at home this weekend, beat Houston next midweek in a neutral-site game and win a series at surging Louisiana Tech to close the year.
Best case: An outright C-USA championship would carry a lot of weight, particularly with a non-conference schedule strength that ranks second nationally. Although C-USA is only one spot ahead of the AAC at the moment, it is within striking distance of third while the AAC was eighth just two days ago.
Biggest issue: The other metrics don't hold up to Tulane. Rice is 6-8 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 against the top 25, facing largely the same teams (Arizona, East Carolina, USM, ULL). The 10-0 loss at Houston on Tuesday was not a good look.
EAST CAROLINA
Record: 30-17-1
RPI: 22
Minimum requirement: The Pirates have to win at least five of their last six conference games, which is doable with a home series against USF and a series at UCF, and overtake Tulane for first in the AAC.
Best case: ECU is a solid 18-13 against the top 100, a respectable 8-8 against the top 50 and will be 5-5 vs. the top 25 if UNCW improves one spot. They won a series at 2015 national champion Virginia and have the nation's No. 8 non-conference schedule.
Biggest issue: Catching Tulane won't be easy, and with no top-100 teams left on the schedule, the RPI won't go up much regardless of the results. I discount conference tournaments to an extent because the committee usually already has made decisions by then, but ECU needs a strong AAC tourney.
COASTAL CAROLINA
Record: 34-14
RPI: 15
Minimum requirement: Keep winning. Playing in the weak Big South, the Chanticleers must sweep Charleston Southern and Campbell and win a pivotal midweek home game against UNCW to have a shot.
Best case: That high RPI keeps Coastal Carolina in the discussion. Its non-conference schedule strength ranks No. 5 nationally, making up for the Big South schedule. The Chanticleers have no bad losses.
Biggest issue: With a chance to prove their worth after going 3-2 against likely ACC NCAA regional teams, Coastal Carolina laid an egg at Georgia Tech recently, getting outscored 22-11 in a three-game sweep. That debacle highlights a decent but not regional-hosting worthy record of 6-8 vs. the top 50 and 14-12 vs. the top 100.
LSU
Record: 33-16
RPI: 13
Minimum requirement: The Tigers have to win series at Tennessee and against No.-1-ranked Florida at Alex Box Stadium to end the regular season. If they win 2 of 3 from the Gators, which only Kentucky has accomplished this year, it's hard to imagine them not hosting, which will enrage Tulane fans.
Best case: The RPI is destined for the top 10 if the Tigers keep winning. An 18-12 mark in the SEC with series wins against Florida and Vanderbilt would give them a compelling resume.
Biggest issue: The Tigers did not have a tough non-conference schedule and did not fare well out of the league. In addition to getting swept home-and-home by Tulane, they lost to Lamar, Sacramento State, Ball State and McNeese State. If they get a regional, it might be at the expense of another Vanderbilt rather than Tulane. Florida, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Mississippi States are virtual locks to host.
VANDERBILT
Record: 36-13
RPI: 12
Minimum requirement: The Commodores need to three of their last six SEC games against Florida (road) and Auburn (home), preferably with at least one win in Gainesville this weekend.
Best case: A 17-13 record in the loaded SEC likely would be deemed regional-hosting worthy. Vandy is 18-12 against the top 100 and 10-9 against the top 50.
Biggest issue: The resume is not as impressive as the RPI number. Vandy is 6-9 against the top 25 and could be 6-12 after this weekend. Against top SEC teams, it lost series to LSU, Texas A&M and Mississippi State while beating South Carolina. It even lost a series to Tennessee, which has little shot at an at-large bid. Its non-conference schedule strength was a pitiful 182, and if the baseball selection committee thinks like the basketball selection committee, that number will be a killer if the Commodores are on the bubble for a host site.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Record: 31-15
RPI: 20
Mininum requirement: At least 5 wins in the final six Big 12 games.
Best case: The Cowboys have won 12 of their last 14, including a key series win against TCU and a non-league win against Dallas Baptist. They are in second place in the Big 12, which is rated third in the RPI despite being perceived as having a down year.
Biggest issue: Oklahoma State is 12-14 vs. the RPI top 100. That normally is not hosting material and is considerably worse than anyone else competing for one of the last hosting spots.
TCU
Record: 33-12
RPI: 17
Minimum requirement: The Horned Frogs need to pass Oklahoma for second in the Big 12. They are a game behind the Cowboys with series left against Baylor and Kansas State.
Best case: TCU is an impressive 19-8 vs. the RPI top 100, which sounds really good until you look a little closer. Its non-conference RPI is No. 10 nationally. It is 8-6 against the top 50.
Biggest issue: Of those 19 top 100 wins, 11 came against teams ranked 80th or worse. Since starting 17-3 with wins against Rice (twice) and ULL, TCU has cooled down, losing series to Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
TAKEAWAY
I still expect the SEC and ACC to have six hosts as the dominant leagues in college baseball. Texas Tech is a lock, and the West Coast likely, though not definitely, will get two undeserved host spots. That leaves one definite open regional, and Tulane's qualifications will be as good if not better than anyone else if it keeps winning. The Houston series could be a bear after the Cougars beat Rice and ULL at home the past two days. Sweep Memphis and win 2 of 3 at Houston, and I think there will be baseball at Turchin Stadium after the Nicholls State game next Tuesday.
Here's a side-by-side comparison of the leading candidates for the last one or two spots.
TULANE
Record: 33-14
RPI: 23
Minimum requirement: Needs to finish ahead of East Carolina in AAC and avoid a bad loss.
Best case: Tulane is a solid 16-9 against the RPI top 100 and a spectacular 8-2 against the RPI top 25, including 4-0 against nearby regional contenders LSU and Southern Miss. That stat is the money one because no one on the bubble for a regional is close to that percentage. Tulane also has lost only one weekend series.
Biggest issue: The AAC is having a down year, although it had jumped two spots to No. 6 overall this week.
SOUTHERN MISS
Record: 34-14
RPI: 18
Minimum requirement: Needs to finish ahead of Rice and FAU in C-USA. Rice and FAU play in Houston this weekend. USM is tied with Rice at 18-6, a game ahead of FAU, and has a tricky home series v. La Tech and a road series against FIU to close the regular season.
Best case: USM is a solid 18-11 against the RPI top 100 and has played a whopping 19 games against the top 50. C-USA has been stronger than the AAC this year, so winning it would carry more weight.
Biggest issue: The lopsided sweep by Tulane hurts in a side-by-side comparison, and the Golden Eagles are only 2-4 against the top 25.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Record: 31-18
RPI: 21
Mininum requirement: The Cajuns need to sweep Sun Belt leader South Alabama on the road this weekend, a long shot occurrence but one that would that would vault them into the top 15 of the RPI. They are three games behind the Jaguars with two weeks to go and have to win the Sun Belt outright to have a shot at hosting.
Best case: As just stated, the RPI would be extremely high with a sweep of USA. Inexplicably, their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 1 in the nation.
Biggest issue: Aside from the RPI and schedule strength numbers, both of which appear inflated, the Cajuns' case is flimsy. Their 16-12 mark against the top 100 and 6-6 mark against the top 50 is not as good as some of the other regional contenders. One loss in Mobile this weekend would kill their chance to host. The Sun Belt ranks ninth in the RPI, so they have to win it outright.
RICE
Record: 31-15
RPI: 28
Minimum requirement: Needs to win the FAU series at home this weekend, beat Houston next midweek in a neutral-site game and win a series at surging Louisiana Tech to close the year.
Best case: An outright C-USA championship would carry a lot of weight, particularly with a non-conference schedule strength that ranks second nationally. Although C-USA is only one spot ahead of the AAC at the moment, it is within striking distance of third while the AAC was eighth just two days ago.
Biggest issue: The other metrics don't hold up to Tulane. Rice is 6-8 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 against the top 25, facing largely the same teams (Arizona, East Carolina, USM, ULL). The 10-0 loss at Houston on Tuesday was not a good look.
EAST CAROLINA
Record: 30-17-1
RPI: 22
Minimum requirement: The Pirates have to win at least five of their last six conference games, which is doable with a home series against USF and a series at UCF, and overtake Tulane for first in the AAC.
Best case: ECU is a solid 18-13 against the top 100, a respectable 8-8 against the top 50 and will be 5-5 vs. the top 25 if UNCW improves one spot. They won a series at 2015 national champion Virginia and have the nation's No. 8 non-conference schedule.
Biggest issue: Catching Tulane won't be easy, and with no top-100 teams left on the schedule, the RPI won't go up much regardless of the results. I discount conference tournaments to an extent because the committee usually already has made decisions by then, but ECU needs a strong AAC tourney.
COASTAL CAROLINA
Record: 34-14
RPI: 15
Minimum requirement: Keep winning. Playing in the weak Big South, the Chanticleers must sweep Charleston Southern and Campbell and win a pivotal midweek home game against UNCW to have a shot.
Best case: That high RPI keeps Coastal Carolina in the discussion. Its non-conference schedule strength ranks No. 5 nationally, making up for the Big South schedule. The Chanticleers have no bad losses.
Biggest issue: With a chance to prove their worth after going 3-2 against likely ACC NCAA regional teams, Coastal Carolina laid an egg at Georgia Tech recently, getting outscored 22-11 in a three-game sweep. That debacle highlights a decent but not regional-hosting worthy record of 6-8 vs. the top 50 and 14-12 vs. the top 100.
LSU
Record: 33-16
RPI: 13
Minimum requirement: The Tigers have to win series at Tennessee and against No.-1-ranked Florida at Alex Box Stadium to end the regular season. If they win 2 of 3 from the Gators, which only Kentucky has accomplished this year, it's hard to imagine them not hosting, which will enrage Tulane fans.
Best case: The RPI is destined for the top 10 if the Tigers keep winning. An 18-12 mark in the SEC with series wins against Florida and Vanderbilt would give them a compelling resume.
Biggest issue: The Tigers did not have a tough non-conference schedule and did not fare well out of the league. In addition to getting swept home-and-home by Tulane, they lost to Lamar, Sacramento State, Ball State and McNeese State. If they get a regional, it might be at the expense of another Vanderbilt rather than Tulane. Florida, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Mississippi States are virtual locks to host.
VANDERBILT
Record: 36-13
RPI: 12
Minimum requirement: The Commodores need to three of their last six SEC games against Florida (road) and Auburn (home), preferably with at least one win in Gainesville this weekend.
Best case: A 17-13 record in the loaded SEC likely would be deemed regional-hosting worthy. Vandy is 18-12 against the top 100 and 10-9 against the top 50.
Biggest issue: The resume is not as impressive as the RPI number. Vandy is 6-9 against the top 25 and could be 6-12 after this weekend. Against top SEC teams, it lost series to LSU, Texas A&M and Mississippi State while beating South Carolina. It even lost a series to Tennessee, which has little shot at an at-large bid. Its non-conference schedule strength was a pitiful 182, and if the baseball selection committee thinks like the basketball selection committee, that number will be a killer if the Commodores are on the bubble for a host site.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Record: 31-15
RPI: 20
Mininum requirement: At least 5 wins in the final six Big 12 games.
Best case: The Cowboys have won 12 of their last 14, including a key series win against TCU and a non-league win against Dallas Baptist. They are in second place in the Big 12, which is rated third in the RPI despite being perceived as having a down year.
Biggest issue: Oklahoma State is 12-14 vs. the RPI top 100. That normally is not hosting material and is considerably worse than anyone else competing for one of the last hosting spots.
TCU
Record: 33-12
RPI: 17
Minimum requirement: The Horned Frogs need to pass Oklahoma for second in the Big 12. They are a game behind the Cowboys with series left against Baylor and Kansas State.
Best case: TCU is an impressive 19-8 vs. the RPI top 100, which sounds really good until you look a little closer. Its non-conference RPI is No. 10 nationally. It is 8-6 against the top 50.
Biggest issue: Of those 19 top 100 wins, 11 came against teams ranked 80th or worse. Since starting 17-3 with wins against Rice (twice) and ULL, TCU has cooled down, losing series to Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
TAKEAWAY
I still expect the SEC and ACC to have six hosts as the dominant leagues in college baseball. Texas Tech is a lock, and the West Coast likely, though not definitely, will get two undeserved host spots. That leaves one definite open regional, and Tulane's qualifications will be as good if not better than anyone else if it keeps winning. The Houston series could be a bear after the Cougars beat Rice and ULL at home the past two days. Sweep Memphis and win 2 of 3 at Houston, and I think there will be baseball at Turchin Stadium after the Nicholls State game next Tuesday.