As of tonight, there are 72 bowl-eligible teams to fill 78 spots nationally. Three more are definitely going to be filled in matchups of 5-6 teams (Baylor v. Texas Tech, Indiana v. Purdue, Vandy v. Tennessee) and Tulane is one of 15 other teams with a chance to become bowl eligible this weekend, while Akron can become bowl eligible by beating Ohio and South Carolina the next two weeks (good luck with that).
The games (teams seeking their sixth win are on the left):
SMU at Tulsa
Tulane v. Navy
FSU v. Florida
Wake Forest at Duke
TCU v. Oklahoma State
Kansas State at Iowa State
Maryland at Penn State
Minnesota at Wisconsin
FAU v. Charlotte
Southern Miss at UTEP
Wyoming at New Mexico
Arizona v. Arizona State
USC v. Notre Dame
Colorado at California
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama
The only favored 5-6 teams on the list are SMU, Tulane, FAU, Southern Miss and Wyoming, while Coastal Carolina is pick 'em against South Alabama, so there might not be more than 80 bowl eligible teams.
The only way Tulane could be in trouble with a win is if SMU beats Tulsa (the Mustangs are favored by 2 1/2) and UCF loses in the AAC title game, forcing it to miss out on a major bowl and fall to one of the AAC's seven bowls. Even though UCF almost certainly would be the highest ranked Group of Five team, the rules state only conference champions are eligible for the Group of Five spot in the major bowl. I can't see UCF losing to either Houston or Memphis in Orlando.
Although the AAC has secondary tie-ins with the Independence Bowl and the Liberty Bowl, that spot is available only if the primary conferences for those bowls (ACC/SEC in the Independence and Big 12/SEC) do not produce enough bowl eligible teams. The only shot there is the Big 12, which will have only six bowl-eligible teams if TCU loses to Oklahoma State (toss-up in my view) and Kansas State loses to Iowa State (almost certain). If one of them wins and Oklahoma gets to the college football playoff, the league would fall short, too.
Clearly, the key is for Tulane to beat Navy. If that happens, there is probably better than a 90 percent chance Tulane will get to a bowl. There is precedent for an AAC team being left out--remember Temple celebrating its ugly 10-3 season finale win at Yulman Stadium in 2014 because it thought it was getting a bowl bid and then being left home anyway?
I am hearing Tulane will end up in either the Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19, at-large opponent), the Cherry Bowl in Boca Raton (Dec. 18, CUSA) or the Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth, Texas (Dec. 22, Big 12) if it gets a bid. The Big 12 opponent probably would be the Baylor-Texas Tech winner or TCU or Kansas State if they win Saturday.
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The games (teams seeking their sixth win are on the left):
SMU at Tulsa
Tulane v. Navy
FSU v. Florida
Wake Forest at Duke
TCU v. Oklahoma State
Kansas State at Iowa State
Maryland at Penn State
Minnesota at Wisconsin
FAU v. Charlotte
Southern Miss at UTEP
Wyoming at New Mexico
Arizona v. Arizona State
USC v. Notre Dame
Colorado at California
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama
The only favored 5-6 teams on the list are SMU, Tulane, FAU, Southern Miss and Wyoming, while Coastal Carolina is pick 'em against South Alabama, so there might not be more than 80 bowl eligible teams.
The only way Tulane could be in trouble with a win is if SMU beats Tulsa (the Mustangs are favored by 2 1/2) and UCF loses in the AAC title game, forcing it to miss out on a major bowl and fall to one of the AAC's seven bowls. Even though UCF almost certainly would be the highest ranked Group of Five team, the rules state only conference champions are eligible for the Group of Five spot in the major bowl. I can't see UCF losing to either Houston or Memphis in Orlando.
Although the AAC has secondary tie-ins with the Independence Bowl and the Liberty Bowl, that spot is available only if the primary conferences for those bowls (ACC/SEC in the Independence and Big 12/SEC) do not produce enough bowl eligible teams. The only shot there is the Big 12, which will have only six bowl-eligible teams if TCU loses to Oklahoma State (toss-up in my view) and Kansas State loses to Iowa State (almost certain). If one of them wins and Oklahoma gets to the college football playoff, the league would fall short, too.
Clearly, the key is for Tulane to beat Navy. If that happens, there is probably better than a 90 percent chance Tulane will get to a bowl. There is precedent for an AAC team being left out--remember Temple celebrating its ugly 10-3 season finale win at Yulman Stadium in 2014 because it thought it was getting a bowl bid and then being left home anyway?
I am hearing Tulane will end up in either the Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19, at-large opponent), the Cherry Bowl in Boca Raton (Dec. 18, CUSA) or the Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth, Texas (Dec. 22, Big 12) if it gets a bid. The Big 12 opponent probably would be the Baylor-Texas Tech winner or TCU or Kansas State if they win Saturday.
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