This is a big series for Tulane. A sweep on the road would probably move our RPI to the range of 40. Going 2-1 would also likely move our RPI up a little while losing 1-2 would drop us into the #60+ range. Let’s not even contemplate getting swept: that would move us into the #70+ range.
Despite my strong feeling that we are definitely a tournament-worthy team, some numbers mitigate against us. According to Warren Nolan’s computer predictions, our current strength of schedule (#66) would drop to #90 over the rest of the regular season.
Nolan goes on to predict we will go 10-5 in our remaining conference games and 3-1 in our OOC games (13-6 total) to finish the year at 36-19. That sounds pretty good to me, but Nolan predicts that record, with our predicted SOS, will give us a #58 RPI. In recent years, very few teams with 50+ RPI's have made the tournament. But,frankly, I have trouble getting to that RPI with 36 wins. Even with a worst case SOS, I see a 36-19 record putting us in the top 50 as a minimum. And, BTW, Boyd's world agrees with me. In his RPI needs report, he says that 13 more wins would put us in the top 45, and 14 more wins would put us in the top 32. Big differences.
Regardless, the key is to go on a solid win streak, continuing this weekend off of Tuesday's big win.
Roll Wave!!!
Despite my strong feeling that we are definitely a tournament-worthy team, some numbers mitigate against us. According to Warren Nolan’s computer predictions, our current strength of schedule (#66) would drop to #90 over the rest of the regular season.
Nolan goes on to predict we will go 10-5 in our remaining conference games and 3-1 in our OOC games (13-6 total) to finish the year at 36-19. That sounds pretty good to me, but Nolan predicts that record, with our predicted SOS, will give us a #58 RPI. In recent years, very few teams with 50+ RPI's have made the tournament. But,frankly, I have trouble getting to that RPI with 36 wins. Even with a worst case SOS, I see a 36-19 record putting us in the top 50 as a minimum. And, BTW, Boyd's world agrees with me. In his RPI needs report, he says that 13 more wins would put us in the top 45, and 14 more wins would put us in the top 32. Big differences.
Regardless, the key is to go on a solid win streak, continuing this weekend off of Tuesday's big win.
Roll Wave!!!
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