Tulane has now played 28 games, half the regular season schedule, and have also completed one conference series. Our record is 19 - 9 (2-1) and our RPI to this point is 105, mainly due to a less than expected strength of schedule, currently listed as 158. Of our 28 games, we’ve played 20 at home, three at neutral sites, and five “on the road.” We can expect to face tougher competition the second half of the season and will be away from home for 12 of our remaining 28 games.
Hitting We started the season on fire and though we’ve only hit .284 since the Ole Miss series our team batting average sits at .301, with 40 HR’s (1.42/game). Compare that to last year when we hit .265 and hit 48 HR’s all season (.83 HRs/game). We’re also walking more (including HBPs) 6.8 to 5.1 per 9 innings and striking out less (7.3- to 8.6 per 9 innings). We’re even scoring more—8.0 runs/game to 6.3 runs/game.
We’ve got six starters hitting over .300 with Kobi Owen (.241) and Gozzo (.223) filling out the order. Bedgood (.281) has been our primary DH against right handed pitching and we really haven’t found a DH to face lefties. Glancy (.231), Acy Owen (.281), and Burns (.294) are all left handed hitters, and our right-handed hitters on the bench (McKeithan, Sepcich, Heinrich, and Power) are a combined 7 for 38 (.184). Gozzo’s game Sunday gives some hope to his offense but Kobi is hitting only .161 over the last 20 games. In fact, several of our best hitters have slumped recently-- Nieman (11 for 39, .282), Hoese (7 for 26, .269), Mathews (4 for 17, .235), Haskins (5 for 23, .217), Bedgood (5 for 27, .185) and Glancy (3 for 17, .176.) That can’t continue. Hopefully, Ty Johnson will return soon to compete for a starting position and to provide more depth.
Pitching Statistically, our pitching is much improved over last season. Whether that’s due to the “dumbed down” schedule, Coach Latham, or some other reason, it’s hard to say at this point. The rest of the season will probably give more evidence one way or the other. Our ERA so far is 4.47 compared to last season’s 5.42, almost a run per game better.. Opponents are only hitting .235 against us this year vice last season’s .272. Last year we walked or hit batters at a rate of 6.44 per 9 innings and struck out 6.90/9 innings. This year, we’ve issued 5.51 free passes per 9 innings and fanned 9.23 per 9 innings. All much better and some pretty darned good.
Ten of our pitchers have thrown at least ten innings each this year and, among them, our best ERA’s are 1.35 and 3.20 for Bates and Raj respectively. Unfortunately, Bates has virtually pitched his way out of consideration by walking or hitting 15 batters in 13 innings and Raj isn’t much better issuing free passes to 25 hitters in 25 innings. If they are to contribute against the better hitting teams during the remainder of the year, they must improve their control. Roper (3.40) has completed at least 5 innings in six of his seven starts. Gillies (6.75) has looked better of late but opponents are hitting .303 against him on the season and he’s only gotten through five innings in three of his seven starts. The good news is that his last two starts against the weak hitting Houston Baptist and Cincinnati were his best of the year. We need that trend to continue. Solesky (4.96) has gone at least 5 inning in 5 of his 7 starts but his performance against Cincinnati is very concerning.
If Raj or Bates doesn’t come through, I don’t know where we’ll find a mid-week starter. The options are not good. And our bullpen has been hit or miss through much of the year though Pellerin (3.38) has looked good the last month or so. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last seven appearances (9 1/3 innings), walking five but allowing only one hit. After getting hit hard early in the year, Whelan (5.79) went six games without allowing an earned run before getting knocked around for five over his last two innings. Ty Johnson (3.52), Campbell (4.74) and Celluci (5.12) have had up and down seasons but may be coming around Johnson has not allowed an earned run in his last 4 appearances (4 innings), though he’s walked 5 and allowed 2 hits in that period. Campbell has allowed one earned run in his last 5 2/3 innings (5 appearances), while walking only one and allowing three hits. Cellucci has been even better of late, also allowing 1 earned run in his last five appearances (10 innings) while walking only one and allowing 5 hits. He’s also struck out a whopping 14 men in those ten innings. Add to those recent performances are Price and Green who, between them, have appeared in four games over the past two weeks allowing no earned runs in five innings (4 hits and 3 walks). Better pitching, especially in the control area will help a lot.
Fielding Our fielding average is slightly better than last year but I think, other than our pitchers, we’ve been much better. Unbelievably, our pitching staff has made 12 of our 26 errors this season, while our infield has only made 11. In my opinion, Jensen is very good at first; Hoese is solid at third and, to me, Artigues is 100% better this year than last at second. He’s also improved greatly at turning a double play. And Gozzo has continued his excellent defense through the first half making even me discount his previous years. He’s only made three errors but seems to be getting a better jump on the ball and the throw he made last week from his knees to complete a double play showed an arm strength I don’t think he had in past years. Outfield play has been OK but Mathews is out there for his bat and his bat only. I’m also concerned about Kobi Owen’s arm. It’s neither strong nor accurate, though he generally covers centerfield better than we’ve seen in recent years. Nieman has played well at catcher allowing only two passed balls and committing only one error, though it contributed to our losing last week to ULL. He’s only nailed 3 of 16 attempted base stealers, but, Acy Owen and McKeithen have only thrown out 2 of 15. That hasn’t been a team (pitchers share the blame) a strong point.
The Path Forward: I’m not worried about our hitting though I’ve noticed through the years that when we receive an inordinate number of walks, our aggressiveness at the plate suffers. Sunday was a good example I think. We only put seven first strikes into play (three of our four hits) and got to two strikes over half the time—not good. We fanned on 9 of those 15 times and got no two strike hits. Pitching looks to be better and it needs to be.
Earlier talk of hosting a regional looks to be silly at this point though a 28 game win streak would clearly change that
. Our SOS will improve over the rest of the year but we will probably need to go 19-9 during the back half of the season to ensure a regional bid. Going 38-18 and 2-2 in the AAC tournament would probably give us an RPI in the 45 range which combined with our record, standing in the AAC, and solid finish should be enough. We don’t have a lot of room for error, however.
Roll Wave!!!
Hitting We started the season on fire and though we’ve only hit .284 since the Ole Miss series our team batting average sits at .301, with 40 HR’s (1.42/game). Compare that to last year when we hit .265 and hit 48 HR’s all season (.83 HRs/game). We’re also walking more (including HBPs) 6.8 to 5.1 per 9 innings and striking out less (7.3- to 8.6 per 9 innings). We’re even scoring more—8.0 runs/game to 6.3 runs/game.
We’ve got six starters hitting over .300 with Kobi Owen (.241) and Gozzo (.223) filling out the order. Bedgood (.281) has been our primary DH against right handed pitching and we really haven’t found a DH to face lefties. Glancy (.231), Acy Owen (.281), and Burns (.294) are all left handed hitters, and our right-handed hitters on the bench (McKeithan, Sepcich, Heinrich, and Power) are a combined 7 for 38 (.184). Gozzo’s game Sunday gives some hope to his offense but Kobi is hitting only .161 over the last 20 games. In fact, several of our best hitters have slumped recently-- Nieman (11 for 39, .282), Hoese (7 for 26, .269), Mathews (4 for 17, .235), Haskins (5 for 23, .217), Bedgood (5 for 27, .185) and Glancy (3 for 17, .176.) That can’t continue. Hopefully, Ty Johnson will return soon to compete for a starting position and to provide more depth.
Pitching Statistically, our pitching is much improved over last season. Whether that’s due to the “dumbed down” schedule, Coach Latham, or some other reason, it’s hard to say at this point. The rest of the season will probably give more evidence one way or the other. Our ERA so far is 4.47 compared to last season’s 5.42, almost a run per game better.. Opponents are only hitting .235 against us this year vice last season’s .272. Last year we walked or hit batters at a rate of 6.44 per 9 innings and struck out 6.90/9 innings. This year, we’ve issued 5.51 free passes per 9 innings and fanned 9.23 per 9 innings. All much better and some pretty darned good.
Ten of our pitchers have thrown at least ten innings each this year and, among them, our best ERA’s are 1.35 and 3.20 for Bates and Raj respectively. Unfortunately, Bates has virtually pitched his way out of consideration by walking or hitting 15 batters in 13 innings and Raj isn’t much better issuing free passes to 25 hitters in 25 innings. If they are to contribute against the better hitting teams during the remainder of the year, they must improve their control. Roper (3.40) has completed at least 5 innings in six of his seven starts. Gillies (6.75) has looked better of late but opponents are hitting .303 against him on the season and he’s only gotten through five innings in three of his seven starts. The good news is that his last two starts against the weak hitting Houston Baptist and Cincinnati were his best of the year. We need that trend to continue. Solesky (4.96) has gone at least 5 inning in 5 of his 7 starts but his performance against Cincinnati is very concerning.
If Raj or Bates doesn’t come through, I don’t know where we’ll find a mid-week starter. The options are not good. And our bullpen has been hit or miss through much of the year though Pellerin (3.38) has looked good the last month or so. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last seven appearances (9 1/3 innings), walking five but allowing only one hit. After getting hit hard early in the year, Whelan (5.79) went six games without allowing an earned run before getting knocked around for five over his last two innings. Ty Johnson (3.52), Campbell (4.74) and Celluci (5.12) have had up and down seasons but may be coming around Johnson has not allowed an earned run in his last 4 appearances (4 innings), though he’s walked 5 and allowed 2 hits in that period. Campbell has allowed one earned run in his last 5 2/3 innings (5 appearances), while walking only one and allowing three hits. Cellucci has been even better of late, also allowing 1 earned run in his last five appearances (10 innings) while walking only one and allowing 5 hits. He’s also struck out a whopping 14 men in those ten innings. Add to those recent performances are Price and Green who, between them, have appeared in four games over the past two weeks allowing no earned runs in five innings (4 hits and 3 walks). Better pitching, especially in the control area will help a lot.
Fielding Our fielding average is slightly better than last year but I think, other than our pitchers, we’ve been much better. Unbelievably, our pitching staff has made 12 of our 26 errors this season, while our infield has only made 11. In my opinion, Jensen is very good at first; Hoese is solid at third and, to me, Artigues is 100% better this year than last at second. He’s also improved greatly at turning a double play. And Gozzo has continued his excellent defense through the first half making even me discount his previous years. He’s only made three errors but seems to be getting a better jump on the ball and the throw he made last week from his knees to complete a double play showed an arm strength I don’t think he had in past years. Outfield play has been OK but Mathews is out there for his bat and his bat only. I’m also concerned about Kobi Owen’s arm. It’s neither strong nor accurate, though he generally covers centerfield better than we’ve seen in recent years. Nieman has played well at catcher allowing only two passed balls and committing only one error, though it contributed to our losing last week to ULL. He’s only nailed 3 of 16 attempted base stealers, but, Acy Owen and McKeithen have only thrown out 2 of 15. That hasn’t been a team (pitchers share the blame) a strong point.
The Path Forward: I’m not worried about our hitting though I’ve noticed through the years that when we receive an inordinate number of walks, our aggressiveness at the plate suffers. Sunday was a good example I think. We only put seven first strikes into play (three of our four hits) and got to two strikes over half the time—not good. We fanned on 9 of those 15 times and got no two strike hits. Pitching looks to be better and it needs to be.
Earlier talk of hosting a regional looks to be silly at this point though a 28 game win streak would clearly change that
. Our SOS will improve over the rest of the year but we will probably need to go 19-9 during the back half of the season to ensure a regional bid. Going 38-18 and 2-2 in the AAC tournament would probably give us an RPI in the 45 range which combined with our record, standing in the AAC, and solid finish should be enough. We don’t have a lot of room for error, however.Roll Wave!!!
