Tulane's bullpen and ace starter Kaleb Roper had tough weekends for the most part at Houston, but the Green Wave managed to win one of three thanks to a two-run comeback in the ninth inning of the nightcap of a brutally long doubleheader on Saturday, leading to a four-run 10th that featured an 18-minute delay when the lights went out on a timer at 1 a.m.
Although it was another disappointing result overall, winning one game was pivotal because it kept the Wave in second place. To hold on to second, Tulane will have to do something it has not done all year--win a series against a top 100 RPI team. Tulane plays host to slumping No. 31 UConn Thursday through Saturday, and if the Wave wins two of the three and Houston does not sweep UCF on the road (there's a better chance of UCF sweeping than Houston sweeping), Tulane will be the No. 2 seed in the AAC tourney.
If Tulane loses 2 of 3 to UConn, it would fall behind Cincinnati, which already has completed its conference schedule, and also would fall behind Houston if Houston wins its series at UCF. If UConn sweeps, the Huskies will pass Tulane along with Cincinnati and either Houston or UCF, but not both. Memphis technically could pass Tulane, too, but the Tigers would have to win a series at ECU and that ain't happening.
Tulane cannot afford to fall past No. 3. It needs to stay on the opposite side of the AAC tournament bracket from league power East Carolina, which will have the 4, 5 and 8 seeds in its grouping while the other half is 2,3 6 and 7. If Tulane wins the UConn series, it could end up with a dream bracket of No. 3 seed Cincinnati and No. 7 seed Memphis (along with, most likely, a tougher proposition in No. 6 UCF). A sweep would be even better, possibly making UConn fall to the No. 6 seed, but nothing that has happened this year makes a sweep believable.
Cincinnati and Memphis were picked second-to-last and last in the preseason coaches poll. Both have RPIs above 100. Tulane outscored Cincinnati 27-5 in the first two games of a road series and beat Memphis 20-5 in the second game of a doubleheader on the road. Nothing is guaranteed with Tulane's wretched pitching, but that would be an incredibly friendly draw to give the Wave the best chance possible to reach the championship game.
That said, we can officially cross off every pitcher on the roster as reliable with Justin Campbell and Brendan Cellucci coming back to earth. Cellucci has given up 10 hits and seven runs in his last four innings covering five appearances. Not good. Campbell has given up five hits and four runs while walking three and hitting two batters over three innings covering his last three appearances.
Those guys plus the entire weekend starting rotation, Trent Johnson, Krishna Raj, Ryan Green, C.J. Whelan, Robert Price and Josh Bates are capable of pitching well, so all hope is not lost, but their bad outings outnumber the good ones and a couple seem to implode every game.
The path to success in the AAC tourney involves one of Roper's good outings--he followed a terrific one against UCF by giving up seven runs to Houston but would have a favorable matchup against Memphis--in the opener next Tuesday. Gillies, who has pitched better lately, then would need to give the Wave a chance in the pivotal winner's bracket game and have the bullpen not screw it up.
At 2-0, the Wave might want to save Solesky for a potential championship game and try to piece the next game together with Trent Johnson and Raj or whoever had not thrown significant innings on the first two days. Since the only way to make an NCAA regional is to win the tournament, that gamble would make sense because Tulane's odds of beating (probably) ECU would be slim to none with its back end pitchers.
But this is just fantasizing. The reality is Tulane has only one pitcher with an ERA below Justin Campbell's 4.85, Josh Bates (2.89), and Bates has hit or walked 24 batters in 18.2 innings. Prior to 2017, Tulane's staff ERA was above 4.85 only 10 times in school history. The current 5.81 ERA is on pace for the second worst in school history. It's hard to win that way.
One other thing. Here is the list of Tulane's series wins and series loss by RPI.
Wins
USF 102
Cincinnati 104
Wichita State 105
Houston Baptist 213
George Washington 219
UC Riverside 220
Losses
East Carolina 5
UC Santa Barbara 15
Ole Miss 28
Houston 36
UCF 49
Split
Memphis 129
Although it was another disappointing result overall, winning one game was pivotal because it kept the Wave in second place. To hold on to second, Tulane will have to do something it has not done all year--win a series against a top 100 RPI team. Tulane plays host to slumping No. 31 UConn Thursday through Saturday, and if the Wave wins two of the three and Houston does not sweep UCF on the road (there's a better chance of UCF sweeping than Houston sweeping), Tulane will be the No. 2 seed in the AAC tourney.
If Tulane loses 2 of 3 to UConn, it would fall behind Cincinnati, which already has completed its conference schedule, and also would fall behind Houston if Houston wins its series at UCF. If UConn sweeps, the Huskies will pass Tulane along with Cincinnati and either Houston or UCF, but not both. Memphis technically could pass Tulane, too, but the Tigers would have to win a series at ECU and that ain't happening.
Tulane cannot afford to fall past No. 3. It needs to stay on the opposite side of the AAC tournament bracket from league power East Carolina, which will have the 4, 5 and 8 seeds in its grouping while the other half is 2,3 6 and 7. If Tulane wins the UConn series, it could end up with a dream bracket of No. 3 seed Cincinnati and No. 7 seed Memphis (along with, most likely, a tougher proposition in No. 6 UCF). A sweep would be even better, possibly making UConn fall to the No. 6 seed, but nothing that has happened this year makes a sweep believable.
Cincinnati and Memphis were picked second-to-last and last in the preseason coaches poll. Both have RPIs above 100. Tulane outscored Cincinnati 27-5 in the first two games of a road series and beat Memphis 20-5 in the second game of a doubleheader on the road. Nothing is guaranteed with Tulane's wretched pitching, but that would be an incredibly friendly draw to give the Wave the best chance possible to reach the championship game.
That said, we can officially cross off every pitcher on the roster as reliable with Justin Campbell and Brendan Cellucci coming back to earth. Cellucci has given up 10 hits and seven runs in his last four innings covering five appearances. Not good. Campbell has given up five hits and four runs while walking three and hitting two batters over three innings covering his last three appearances.
Those guys plus the entire weekend starting rotation, Trent Johnson, Krishna Raj, Ryan Green, C.J. Whelan, Robert Price and Josh Bates are capable of pitching well, so all hope is not lost, but their bad outings outnumber the good ones and a couple seem to implode every game.
The path to success in the AAC tourney involves one of Roper's good outings--he followed a terrific one against UCF by giving up seven runs to Houston but would have a favorable matchup against Memphis--in the opener next Tuesday. Gillies, who has pitched better lately, then would need to give the Wave a chance in the pivotal winner's bracket game and have the bullpen not screw it up.
At 2-0, the Wave might want to save Solesky for a potential championship game and try to piece the next game together with Trent Johnson and Raj or whoever had not thrown significant innings on the first two days. Since the only way to make an NCAA regional is to win the tournament, that gamble would make sense because Tulane's odds of beating (probably) ECU would be slim to none with its back end pitchers.
But this is just fantasizing. The reality is Tulane has only one pitcher with an ERA below Justin Campbell's 4.85, Josh Bates (2.89), and Bates has hit or walked 24 batters in 18.2 innings. Prior to 2017, Tulane's staff ERA was above 4.85 only 10 times in school history. The current 5.81 ERA is on pace for the second worst in school history. It's hard to win that way.
One other thing. Here is the list of Tulane's series wins and series loss by RPI.
Wins
USF 102
Cincinnati 104
Wichita State 105
Houston Baptist 213
George Washington 219
UC Riverside 220
Losses
East Carolina 5
UC Santa Barbara 15
Ole Miss 28
Houston 36
UCF 49
Split
Memphis 129
