In a year when an unusually difficult schedule and tremendous success against RPI top 50 teams kept Tulane's at-large hopes alive despite a sub-.500 or barely above .500 record, that possibility went kaput in a comprehensive 2-1 series loss to UCF at Turchin Stadium over the weekend.
Tulane still has an outside shot at the AAC title, which would be its first back-to-back regular season championships since 1997-98, but it will need a lot of help, and more significantly, will need to play better than it appears capable of playing down the stretch. The Green Wave trails USF by 2 games, but the Bulls have tough series left at UConn and UCF and easily could go 2-4. The Wave trails UCF by a game and loses the tiebreaker. UCF travels to Cincinnati and hosts USF and should go 4-2. The Wave trails Houston by a game but can take care of that deficit this weekend, although a series loss is more likely than a series win. Regardless, a league title won't be enough to garner an at-large bid, and Tulane won't even be on the board unless it finishes above .500.
Tulane's primary focus needs to shift to a desperate search for pitchers who can get the job done heading into the AAC tournament, where it will try to save the season. Travis Jewett also needs to set up the rotation so that France can pitch Tulane's AAC tourney opener on either Tuesday or Wednesday in two weeks (seeds 1, 4, 5 and 8 play on Tuesday; seeds 2, 3, 6 and 7 play on Wednesday) because France has easily been the Wave's most consistent pitcher in conference play. Let Merrill, who has given up a preposterous 20 runs in his last two starts, pitch the second game. The third game, if Tulane is still alive at that point, appears hopeless at the moment. Bjorngjeld blew his opportunity yesterday with four walks in the second inning. Solesky gets the ball over the plate but has been hit hard by every AAC team he has faced. Massey can't be trusted to get out of the first inning. And no one else who has started has good enough stuff to go very far in a tournament game.
But I have an idea, born out of desperation. I'd seriously consider using Colletti as a day 3 starter in the tournament. He's been money as a closer, and in an all-or-nothing tournament, why not take the gamble and see if he could pitch five innings and keep the Wave in it when the guys that already have been in that role have failed repeatedly. If the plan worked and the Wave won three in a row to get to the championship game, Jewett would have some options for the championship game on Sunday, particularly if the tournament started on Tuesday for Tulane.
The Memphis series, which will run from Thursday to Saturday before the tournament, most likely will be insignificant, so I would keep France and Merrill on a strict pitch count or not use them at all so they could be as fresh as possible pitching on four or five days rest in the tournament. The only way Tulane can salvage the season is by winning the automatic bid, so every decision from here on out needs to be based on maximizing that possibility.
The reality is Tulane simply is not pitching well enough to get it done. The team ERA is 5.60, which is worse than the season-ending ERA in all but two seasons (1990, when it was 6.72, and 2010, when it was 5.66). That's not the only issue, but it's the overriding one and the one that never has been solved.
Tulane is capable of hitting well at the top five spots in the lineup, with Grant Brown hitting better than anyone right now. The bottom has become a problem, but if the Gozzo twins snap out of their slumps (I'm assuming Paul will be cleared this weekend), it would help, and maybe Willsey and Hope will come up big. Willsey was a first-team All-AAC selection and really cares. Hope still is capable of hitting mistake pitches out of the park at any time.
So here's my best-case scenario for Clearwater:
Game 1: France goes 7 good innings, Issa pitches the 8th and Colletti gets a one-inning save.
Game 2: Merrill, who regains his form with a quality start against Houston, goes 8, the bats come alive and the Wave does not have to use Colletti to hold on.
Game 3: Colletti, who started 10 games at UConn as a freshman in 2013, goes five strong innings, and Bjorngjeld finishes up as the Wave clinches a spot in the championship game.
Championship game: Given one last chance to redeem himself after a quality start against Memphis, Massey gets his breaking ball over the plate often enough to keep hitters off balance and does not have to use his fast ball exclusively. He keeps Tulane in the game. France comes out of the pen in the sixth inning, finishes it off and Tulane celebrates with a sense of joy and relief at giving a huge senior class its third straight regional.
Right now, I would rank the AAC teams in this order: 1)UCF, 2) Houston, 3) USF, 4) Tulane, 5) UConn, 6) Cincinnati, 7) ECU, 8) Memphis. UCF outclassed Tulane over the weekend, with only a terrific performance by J.P. France saving the Wave from a sweep. UCF is fast, has the best bullpen in the AAC by far and has quality starting arms. The Knights are an average hitting team, but they make up for it in all of the other areas.
In other words, it would be better for Tulane if UCF ended up in the other bracket in Clearwater. Other than that, I don't think it matters much. Not much separates the other top teams in the conference, and very little separates the bottom three teams.
Tulane still has an outside shot at the AAC title, which would be its first back-to-back regular season championships since 1997-98, but it will need a lot of help, and more significantly, will need to play better than it appears capable of playing down the stretch. The Green Wave trails USF by 2 games, but the Bulls have tough series left at UConn and UCF and easily could go 2-4. The Wave trails UCF by a game and loses the tiebreaker. UCF travels to Cincinnati and hosts USF and should go 4-2. The Wave trails Houston by a game but can take care of that deficit this weekend, although a series loss is more likely than a series win. Regardless, a league title won't be enough to garner an at-large bid, and Tulane won't even be on the board unless it finishes above .500.
Tulane's primary focus needs to shift to a desperate search for pitchers who can get the job done heading into the AAC tournament, where it will try to save the season. Travis Jewett also needs to set up the rotation so that France can pitch Tulane's AAC tourney opener on either Tuesday or Wednesday in two weeks (seeds 1, 4, 5 and 8 play on Tuesday; seeds 2, 3, 6 and 7 play on Wednesday) because France has easily been the Wave's most consistent pitcher in conference play. Let Merrill, who has given up a preposterous 20 runs in his last two starts, pitch the second game. The third game, if Tulane is still alive at that point, appears hopeless at the moment. Bjorngjeld blew his opportunity yesterday with four walks in the second inning. Solesky gets the ball over the plate but has been hit hard by every AAC team he has faced. Massey can't be trusted to get out of the first inning. And no one else who has started has good enough stuff to go very far in a tournament game.
But I have an idea, born out of desperation. I'd seriously consider using Colletti as a day 3 starter in the tournament. He's been money as a closer, and in an all-or-nothing tournament, why not take the gamble and see if he could pitch five innings and keep the Wave in it when the guys that already have been in that role have failed repeatedly. If the plan worked and the Wave won three in a row to get to the championship game, Jewett would have some options for the championship game on Sunday, particularly if the tournament started on Tuesday for Tulane.
The Memphis series, which will run from Thursday to Saturday before the tournament, most likely will be insignificant, so I would keep France and Merrill on a strict pitch count or not use them at all so they could be as fresh as possible pitching on four or five days rest in the tournament. The only way Tulane can salvage the season is by winning the automatic bid, so every decision from here on out needs to be based on maximizing that possibility.
The reality is Tulane simply is not pitching well enough to get it done. The team ERA is 5.60, which is worse than the season-ending ERA in all but two seasons (1990, when it was 6.72, and 2010, when it was 5.66). That's not the only issue, but it's the overriding one and the one that never has been solved.
Tulane is capable of hitting well at the top five spots in the lineup, with Grant Brown hitting better than anyone right now. The bottom has become a problem, but if the Gozzo twins snap out of their slumps (I'm assuming Paul will be cleared this weekend), it would help, and maybe Willsey and Hope will come up big. Willsey was a first-team All-AAC selection and really cares. Hope still is capable of hitting mistake pitches out of the park at any time.
So here's my best-case scenario for Clearwater:
Game 1: France goes 7 good innings, Issa pitches the 8th and Colletti gets a one-inning save.
Game 2: Merrill, who regains his form with a quality start against Houston, goes 8, the bats come alive and the Wave does not have to use Colletti to hold on.
Game 3: Colletti, who started 10 games at UConn as a freshman in 2013, goes five strong innings, and Bjorngjeld finishes up as the Wave clinches a spot in the championship game.
Championship game: Given one last chance to redeem himself after a quality start against Memphis, Massey gets his breaking ball over the plate often enough to keep hitters off balance and does not have to use his fast ball exclusively. He keeps Tulane in the game. France comes out of the pen in the sixth inning, finishes it off and Tulane celebrates with a sense of joy and relief at giving a huge senior class its third straight regional.
Right now, I would rank the AAC teams in this order: 1)UCF, 2) Houston, 3) USF, 4) Tulane, 5) UConn, 6) Cincinnati, 7) ECU, 8) Memphis. UCF outclassed Tulane over the weekend, with only a terrific performance by J.P. France saving the Wave from a sweep. UCF is fast, has the best bullpen in the AAC by far and has quality starting arms. The Knights are an average hitting team, but they make up for it in all of the other areas.
In other words, it would be better for Tulane if UCF ended up in the other bracket in Clearwater. Other than that, I don't think it matters much. Not much separates the other top teams in the conference, and very little separates the bottom three teams.