I see some of our fans are concerned that we are a “bubble team” and need to improve to ensure making the NCAA tournament as an “at large” school. I’m not sure why anyone thinks we are currently a “bubble team,” but we certainly do need to improve markedly to make the tourney.
Thirty-one schools receive automatic bids as conference champions, though historically 15-20 of those would not have received an automatic bid had they not won their conference. That means, the remaining conference champions and “at large” bids make up what “should be” roughly the best 45 or so teams in the country, by whatever criteria the committee chooses. Several factors seem to be considered for a team to get an “at large” invitation (in no particular order):
1. Overall record. At 26-14, we actually have the 50th best won/lost record in the country, not quite in the top 45, but close.
2. Strength of Schedule, whether perceived or calculated. Our calculated SOS is currently #131—not close to “good” but likely to improve into the 80 or so range by season’s end. We play in what is generally considered the 5th best baseball conference so the perception of our opposition may be a little better than the calculated SOS.
3. RPI. Although some dislike this statistic, it appears to be the one with the highest reliability when the committee chooses “at large” candidates. We’re currently at #89 and according to Boyd’s World would need to win 13 of our remaining 15 games to reach an RPI of #45—Tough putt!!!
4. Performance against top 50 teams. We’re currently 1-5, which from a winning percentage puts us in 142nd place, though we probably have nine remaining games against top 50 schools. A 7-2 record against them would result in an 8-7 overall record against Q1 schools and, if we won our other six, would also give us an RPI in the top 45.
6. Ranking in the polls. We’re unranked receiving no votes and considering the school s that have received at least one vote, puts us somewhere beyond the 60-70 range depending on the specific poll. A good final run could change all of that.
7. Speaking of “good final runs,” how a team finishes is also important. All of that is in front of us of course.
8. Politics. Who is on the selection committee, what conference is involved, personal bias, and a hundred other factors could play here and no one will ever know for sure how it affects the final selection.
So, as I see it to this point, we’re not even in the consideration for an “on the bubble” position let alone an at large bid. Our final 15 games and conference championships could change that. To me, I think we need to win 11 games in the regular season with at least 6 of those coming against “top 50” teams to get back into contention. That would give us a 36-19 record overall (not great), a probable second place finish in the AAC (good), and a 7-8 record against “top 50” teams (good). Our RPI would probably be in the 55-60 range (not good), and a solid finish to the season. We wouldn’t be “guaranteed” by any stretch of the imagination but we’d have a “chance” depending on how many conference champions without “at large” credentials “steal” a spot in the field.
ECU on the road this weekend may be our toughest test of the year. Getting swept would likely end our “at large” hopes and while going 1-2 might move our RPI up a little it would put even more pressure on the remainder of the schedule. Their Friday and Saturday starters are “lights out” left-handed pitchers (2.85 and 2.05 ERA respectively) and their Sunday starter, a righty (5.07 ERA), is 5-0 on the year and was their ace (1.70 ERA) last season, so he can also pitch. Along with that, they are the second best hitting team (after us) in the conference and own a 19-3 home record and 11-1 conference record. Still, taking two at ECU is nearly a must. Here's hoping.
Roll Wave!!!
Thirty-one schools receive automatic bids as conference champions, though historically 15-20 of those would not have received an automatic bid had they not won their conference. That means, the remaining conference champions and “at large” bids make up what “should be” roughly the best 45 or so teams in the country, by whatever criteria the committee chooses. Several factors seem to be considered for a team to get an “at large” invitation (in no particular order):
1. Overall record. At 26-14, we actually have the 50th best won/lost record in the country, not quite in the top 45, but close.
2. Strength of Schedule, whether perceived or calculated. Our calculated SOS is currently #131—not close to “good” but likely to improve into the 80 or so range by season’s end. We play in what is generally considered the 5th best baseball conference so the perception of our opposition may be a little better than the calculated SOS.
3. RPI. Although some dislike this statistic, it appears to be the one with the highest reliability when the committee chooses “at large” candidates. We’re currently at #89 and according to Boyd’s World would need to win 13 of our remaining 15 games to reach an RPI of #45—Tough putt!!!
4. Performance against top 50 teams. We’re currently 1-5, which from a winning percentage puts us in 142nd place, though we probably have nine remaining games against top 50 schools. A 7-2 record against them would result in an 8-7 overall record against Q1 schools and, if we won our other six, would also give us an RPI in the top 45.
6. Ranking in the polls. We’re unranked receiving no votes and considering the school s that have received at least one vote, puts us somewhere beyond the 60-70 range depending on the specific poll. A good final run could change all of that.
7. Speaking of “good final runs,” how a team finishes is also important. All of that is in front of us of course.
8. Politics. Who is on the selection committee, what conference is involved, personal bias, and a hundred other factors could play here and no one will ever know for sure how it affects the final selection.
So, as I see it to this point, we’re not even in the consideration for an “on the bubble” position let alone an at large bid. Our final 15 games and conference championships could change that. To me, I think we need to win 11 games in the regular season with at least 6 of those coming against “top 50” teams to get back into contention. That would give us a 36-19 record overall (not great), a probable second place finish in the AAC (good), and a 7-8 record against “top 50” teams (good). Our RPI would probably be in the 55-60 range (not good), and a solid finish to the season. We wouldn’t be “guaranteed” by any stretch of the imagination but we’d have a “chance” depending on how many conference champions without “at large” credentials “steal” a spot in the field.
ECU on the road this weekend may be our toughest test of the year. Getting swept would likely end our “at large” hopes and while going 1-2 might move our RPI up a little it would put even more pressure on the remainder of the schedule. Their Friday and Saturday starters are “lights out” left-handed pitchers (2.85 and 2.05 ERA respectively) and their Sunday starter, a righty (5.07 ERA), is 5-0 on the year and was their ace (1.70 ERA) last season, so he can also pitch. Along with that, they are the second best hitting team (after us) in the conference and own a 19-3 home record and 11-1 conference record. Still, taking two at ECU is nearly a must. Here's hoping.
Roll Wave!!!
