Willie Fritz: the strange change in penalties and turnover margin
- By Guerry Smith
- Joe Kennedy's Wave Crest
- 0 Replies
Until the last two years, Willie Fritz had been a remarkably good coach when it came to turnovers, the single most volatile stat in football. A team can be plus 15 one year and minus-15 the next with the same staff in place, but in his case, no team he coached from his first year at Central Missouri in 1997 to Tulane in 2017 had a negative turnover margin.
That is an amazing 21-year stat of consistency, which ended, barely, last year when Tulane was minus-1. This season the Wave is minus-4 and will need an incredible turnover game in the bowl game to avoid a second straight negative turnover ratio. The problem is not ball security but the inability to get takeways. Tulane's 14 takeaways are two lower than Fritz's worst total of 16 which was set in 11 games at Sam Houston State in 2010.
Here are the year-by-year stats, from most recent to oldest:
2019: minus-4 (14/18)
2018: minus-1 (18/19)
2017: plus-8 (19/11)
2016: plus-9 (27/18)
2015: plus-6 (27/21)
2014: plus-8 (20/12)
2013: plus-4 (25/21)
2012: plus-10 (30/20)
2011: plus-28 (42/14)
2010: plus-4 (16/12)
2009: plus-4 (21/17)
2008: plus-7 (21/14)
2007: plus-9 (34/25)
2006: plus-2 (20/18)
2005: plus-10 (25/15)
2004: plus-2 (21/19)
2003: plus-13 (30/17)
2002: plus-7 (30/23)
2001: plus-7 (34/27
2000: plus-13 (34/21)
1999: plus-4 (29/25)
1998: even (23/23)
1997: plus-7 (26/19
Fritz was plus-160 through 21 years, an average of about plus-8, before the downturn in the last two seasons. His teams failed to force 20 turnovers only once before he came to Tulane but will have failed to do it three straight years after the bowl game, which probably is a reflection of the upgraded talent level in the AAC.
As for penalties, which generally are not a revealing stat in terms of wins and losses (as many years as not, the 10 teams with the most penalty yards in the FBS have better records than the 10 teams with the fewest penalty yards, although that will not be the case this season), Fritz's teams have been average before Tulane's dramatic rise in flags the past two years. Penalties are not usually a volatile stat, with teams generally averaging around the same number of penalties each year, but Tulane has broken the mold.
Here are Fritz's year-by-year penalty stats starting in 2008. It becomes more difficult to access those numbers before 2008, with national rank in penalties followed by the number of penalties and the yards:
2019: 122—97-833
2018: T90--88-805
2017: 58—70-579
2016: T81—77-661
2015: T24--67-629
2014: T22--57-556
2013: 39—76-641
2012: 88—112-1021
2011: 73—101-1017
2010: T72—76-701
2009: T92—84-680
2008: T48—67-579
Until this year, no Fritz team had ranked in the 100s in penalties, and Tulane is No. 122. It also will rack up 100 penalties for only the third time in Fritz's career if it gets at least three in the bowl game, and the other two years came when Sam Houston State played 15 games in 2011 and 2012.
Tulane was 64th in the nation in penalties and 48th in Fritz's first two years, but 94th and 122nd the last two. I'm not sure if that means the players he brought in are not as coachable as the players he inherited--it seems unlikely considering everything the coaches and players have said about buying into his system--but the numbers are damning.
If Tulane's turnover ratio had been as good as it was in Fritz's first two years the last two seasons, the Wave would have won more than six games. I don't feel like penalties were a big factor in losses last year despite the high number, but they definitely were a major hindrance this season.
That is an amazing 21-year stat of consistency, which ended, barely, last year when Tulane was minus-1. This season the Wave is minus-4 and will need an incredible turnover game in the bowl game to avoid a second straight negative turnover ratio. The problem is not ball security but the inability to get takeways. Tulane's 14 takeaways are two lower than Fritz's worst total of 16 which was set in 11 games at Sam Houston State in 2010.
Here are the year-by-year stats, from most recent to oldest:
2019: minus-4 (14/18)
2018: minus-1 (18/19)
2017: plus-8 (19/11)
2016: plus-9 (27/18)
2015: plus-6 (27/21)
2014: plus-8 (20/12)
2013: plus-4 (25/21)
2012: plus-10 (30/20)
2011: plus-28 (42/14)
2010: plus-4 (16/12)
2009: plus-4 (21/17)
2008: plus-7 (21/14)
2007: plus-9 (34/25)
2006: plus-2 (20/18)
2005: plus-10 (25/15)
2004: plus-2 (21/19)
2003: plus-13 (30/17)
2002: plus-7 (30/23)
2001: plus-7 (34/27
2000: plus-13 (34/21)
1999: plus-4 (29/25)
1998: even (23/23)
1997: plus-7 (26/19
Fritz was plus-160 through 21 years, an average of about plus-8, before the downturn in the last two seasons. His teams failed to force 20 turnovers only once before he came to Tulane but will have failed to do it three straight years after the bowl game, which probably is a reflection of the upgraded talent level in the AAC.
As for penalties, which generally are not a revealing stat in terms of wins and losses (as many years as not, the 10 teams with the most penalty yards in the FBS have better records than the 10 teams with the fewest penalty yards, although that will not be the case this season), Fritz's teams have been average before Tulane's dramatic rise in flags the past two years. Penalties are not usually a volatile stat, with teams generally averaging around the same number of penalties each year, but Tulane has broken the mold.
Here are Fritz's year-by-year penalty stats starting in 2008. It becomes more difficult to access those numbers before 2008, with national rank in penalties followed by the number of penalties and the yards:
2019: 122—97-833
2018: T90--88-805
2017: 58—70-579
2016: T81—77-661
2015: T24--67-629
2014: T22--57-556
2013: 39—76-641
2012: 88—112-1021
2011: 73—101-1017
2010: T72—76-701
2009: T92—84-680
2008: T48—67-579
Until this year, no Fritz team had ranked in the 100s in penalties, and Tulane is No. 122. It also will rack up 100 penalties for only the third time in Fritz's career if it gets at least three in the bowl game, and the other two years came when Sam Houston State played 15 games in 2011 and 2012.
Tulane was 64th in the nation in penalties and 48th in Fritz's first two years, but 94th and 122nd the last two. I'm not sure if that means the players he brought in are not as coachable as the players he inherited--it seems unlikely considering everything the coaches and players have said about buying into his system--but the numbers are damning.
If Tulane's turnover ratio had been as good as it was in Fritz's first two years the last two seasons, the Wave would have won more than six games. I don't feel like penalties were a big factor in losses last year despite the high number, but they definitely were a major hindrance this season.