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The Numbers through the years for Willie Fritz' offense

Willie Fritz is a winner. That's unquestionable.

The next question is what type of offense he will run at Tulane. He's already told Tulane officials he will not run the triple option, but his six-year history at the FBS and FCS level indicated it will be run-heavy system.

His history at Division II Central Missouri, where he did not win as much as he did at Sam Houston St. (his teams were good but not great, which probably is why he stayed there 12 years) tells another story, so it will be interesting to see what he does.

Here are the number for his offense from year to year, going backwards in time, with the yards per game listed first and the ranking among FBS, FCS and Division II teams second.

2015

Rush: 355.6 (1)
Pass: 61.8 (127-last)
Record: 9-3

2014 * (I listed where GS would have ranked if it had been official member of FBS)

Rush: 381.1 (1)
Pass: 107.2 (123)
Record: 9-3

2013 (Sam Houston State)

Rush: 265.0 (6)
Pass: 151. (83)
Record: 9-5

2012

Rush: 268.3 (7)
Pass: 190.2 (76)
Record: 11-4

2011

Rush: 255.9 (6)
Pass: 185.6 (83)
Record: 14-1

2010

Rush: 186.4 (26)
Pass: 149.6 (97)
Record: 6-5

2009 (Central Missouri)

Rush: 136.7 (88)
Pass: 278.2 (19)
Record: 8-3

2008

Rush: 126.6 (91)
Pass: 277.8 (19)
Record: 7-4

2007

Rush: 165.2 (55)
Pass: 217.7 (61)
Record: 7-4

2006

Rush: 122.1 (73)
Pass: 272.0 (9)
Record: 5-6

2005

Rush: 189.7 (32)
Pass 229.8 (48)
Record: 7-3

2004

Rush: 214.9 (24)
Pass: 191.1 (70)
Record: 7-4

2003

Rush: 205.4 (27)
Pass: 173.0 (95)
Record: 9-2

It is harder to get the stats from before 2003, but I have the last 13 years, which is a pretty good measure.

Analysis: Fritz had a proficient passing game at Central Missouri, although his most prolific pass offense came when he had his worst year, going 5-6, and his second-best pass offense came when he went 7-4. He never won his league in 12 seasons and advanced to the Division II playoffs once, which explains one reason he stayed there this long.

Clearly, when he got to Sam Houston State, he found that he could win with a dominant run game. His teams have averaged more than 250 rushing yards for the last five years, an astounding stat. When he got to Georgia Southern, he adopted the triple option that was already established by Jeff Monken (and many coaches before Monken, although Georgia Southern had gone away from that style under Monken's predecessor) and the passing game became an afterthought. Georgia Southern has led the nation in rushing the past two years and ranked near the bottom in passing.

I believe Fritz will establish an offense at Tulane similar to what Urban Meyer runs at Ohio State. I covered Meyer for three years when he was at Florida, and even though the Gators put up some good passing numbers, it was all based on forcing an extra man into the box to stop the run and then beating single coverage in the secondary. The pass routes were very simple, and the Gators struggled to throw when opponents slowed down the run game.

But I'm just speculating there. The key for Fritz early will be finding a way to run successfully with a below-average offensive line. His track record says he will be successful in that department. To contend for a championship, though, he will need a more sophisticated passing attack than what he had at Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State. I was very surprised to see he had two teams at Central Missouri that ranked among the nation's top 20 in passing. That's encouraging because it means he can adjust, but since he's had the bulk of his success with a dominant running game, I expect him to start out with that approach at Tulane.

2016 Tulane football schedule

I wrote about this information in The Advocate last week, but I have an addition to make to Tulane's official schedule for 2016. The regular-season conference dates have not been determined. Everything else has.

DATE OPPONENT SITE

Sept. 1: At Wake Forest Winston Salem, N.C.
Sept. 10: Southern Yulman Stadium
Sept. 24 UL-Lafayette Yulman Stadium
Oct. 1 at UMass Foxboro, Mass.
TBA Memphis
TBA Navy
TBA SMU
TBA Temple
TBA at Houston
TBA at Tulsa
TBA at UCF
TBA at UConn
Dec. 3 AAC Championship Game Yulman Stadium

Late spring practice

The end of the CJ era also is the end of winter practice.

Fritz today said he would not start spring practice until after Tulane's spring break. The first day of classes after spring break is March 29, so look for the Green Wave to start right around then.

It's also posted on the Q&A on the front page, but practices will be in the morning during the spring because class schedules already have been set. Fritz did not say what he planned to do in the fall.

Schools with coaching vacancies or presumed vacancies

Here is who Tulane is competing with. I will keep updating this list as warranted

AAC

UCF (HIRED SCOTT FROST, OREGON OC)
Tulane (HIRED WILLIE FRITZ, GEORGIA SOUTHERN COACH)
Memphis (HIRED MIKE NORVELL, ARIZONA STATE OC)
East Carolina (HIRED SCOTTIE MONTGOMERY, DUKE OC)

ACC

Syracuse (HIRED BOWLING GREEN COACH DINO BABERS)
Miami (HIRED MARK RICHT, FORMER UGA COACH)
Virginia (HIRED BYU COACH BRONCO MENDENHALL
Virginia Tech (HIRED JUSTIN FUENTE OF MEMPHIS)

Big 12

Iowa State (HIRED MATT CAMPBELL OF TOLEDO)

Big Ten

Rutgers (HIRED OHIO STATE CO-DC CHRIS ASH)
Maryland (HIRED D.J. DURKIN, MICHIGAN DC)

CUSA

North Texas (HIRED SETH LITRELL, UNC ASST HEAD COACH FOR OFFENSE)

MAC

Bowling Green (HIRED MIKE JINKS, ASSOCIATE HEAD COACH AT TEXAS TECH)
Toledo (HIRED JASON CANDLE, ITS OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR)

Mountain West

Hawaii (HIRED NICK ROLOVICH, NEVADA OC)
BYU

Pac-12

USC (HIRED INTERIM COACH KIM HELTON)

SEC

South Carolina (HIRED WILL MUSCHAMP, AUBURN DC)
Missouri (HIRED BARRY ODOM, MISSOURI DC)
Georgia (HIRED KIRBY SMART, ALABAMA DC)

Sun Belt

ULM (HIRED MATT VIATOR, MCNEESE STATE COACH)

NCAA "Dead Period"

There may be some confusion regarding what contact a college can make with a prospective student athlete during a “dead period.” According to the NCAA, “During a dead period a college coach may not have face-to-face contact with college-bound student-athletes or their parents, and may not watch student-athletes compete or visit their high schools. Coaches may write and telephone student-athletes or their parents during a dead period.” ( http://www.ncaa.org/student-athletes/resources/recruiting-calendars )The upcoming “dead period” runs between December 4 and January 13, but does not mean that Coach Fritz cannot talk on the phone to current or potential “commits.”

Contact with someone like Jack Abraham, who presumably is getting ready to enroll could be even more extensive, depending on his status. Again, according to the NCAA, “Institutional staff members may have contact with a prospective student-athlete who has been admitted for midyear enrollment, provided the prospective student-athlete has signed a National Letter of Intent or other offer of admission and/or financial aid to attend the institution and is required to be on campus to attend institutional orientation sessions for all students.” (http://ncaacompliance.nd.edu/RecruitingCalendars.shtml#Football )

Junior College students can sign a National Letter of Intent as early as December 16th for enrolment in January. I haven’t been able to definitively determine what date a high school graduate can sign who, like Abraham, wishes to enroll early. I’d guess it’s the same date but haven’t been able to “lock that down." The compliance officer at Tulane would undoubtedly know, of course.

Anyway, that’s what I know or think I know.

Roll Wave!!!

Willie Fritz quotes (via Ga Southern beat writer from Statesboro)

Nathan Deen, the Georgia Southern beat writer for the Savannah, Ga. newspaper, got an interview with Fritz Friday night and tweeted some of the comments:

The pertinent tweets:

1) Willie Fritz said he was attracted by the idea of building a winner at #Tulane.

2) Fritz: “It was a tough decision. My wife and I have really enjoyed Statesboro, and everyone’s treated us extremely well."

3) Fritz: “It’s the opportunity to do something that’s never been done there before."

4) Fritz: "(@TU_Dannen ) knows it’s going to be quite a chore, and he felt like I was the right guy for the job."

5) Fritz's contract with Georgia Southern states his buyout drops from $800,000 to $100,00 because Brooks Keel left the school this year

6) Ga Southern AD() Kleinelin says Fritz probably won't coach bowl game.

If he does coach the bowl game, I will be there to cover it in Mobile.

Age of college football coaches taking new jobs

I thought Fritz, at 55, was going to be the oldest, but the honor went to Mark Richt, who is 43 days older.

The full list:


Mark Richt 55 Miami

Willie Fritz 55 Tulane

Dino Babers 54 Syracuse

Bronco Mendenhall 49 Virginia

Will Muschamp 44 South Carolina

Mike Jinks 43 Bowling Green

Chris Ash 41 Rutgers

Scott Frost 40 UCF

Kirby Smart 39 Georgia

Justin Fuente 39 Virginia Tech

Barry Odom 39 Missouri

D.J. Durkin 37 Maryland

Nick Rolovich 36 Hawaii

Jason Candle 36 Toledo

Matt Campbell 36 Iowa State

Mike Norvell 34 Memphis

Seth Littrell 30s North Texas * No exact age on Wikipedia page, but he finished at Oklahoma in 2001 so probably 36 or 37.

Georgia Souther Commits

Every time a coach leaves a school, the kids he has recruited tend to become fair game. Tulane has already seen a couple who chose to decommit after CJ’s firing. I also noticed that Mark Richt, the new head coach at Miami, has said he’d be interested in any of the commits he had at Georgia who, having chosen the school at least in part due to the coaching staff, might be interested in following him.

So, I thought I’d take a look at who Georgia Southern has committed. Interestingly enough, their class is rated higher than Tulane’s by everyone, though I don’t put much stock in that. They do have several very interesting commits that I’d think would deserve a look. One, Drew Wilson, a 6’3 285# offensive guard from South Carolina had offers from Clemson, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Louisville, UNC, North Carolina State, and Virginia Tech among others. Maybe all of those folks are wrong, but we’ve not had many people with that many P5-level offers, well, ever.

Another one is a wide receiver from Georgia, Jacob Robertson, who has 15 offers, including ones from Miami, Pitt, and Tennessee.

Several others, at least based on the number of P5-level offers, also look good.

I have no idea why these kids chose Georgia Southern over some very high profile schools, but Willie Fritz must be part of the reason. If he can get a solid recruiter to work southern Louisiana and retain his obvious ties across the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida, we might be able to make some noise in the not-too-distant future.

Roll, Coach Fritz; Roll Wave!!!

Tulane 2016 non-conference football schedule

With Wake Forest releasing its schedule today, we know the dates of Tulane's four non-conference games next year.

The Wave opens on a Thursday for the fourth consecutive year at Wake Forest, following Thursday openers against Duke, Tulsa and Jackson State.

Tulane then plays host to Southern on Sept. 10, travels to UMass on Oct. 1 and faces ULL on Oct. 8 at Yulman. The combined record of the FBS opponents this year was 10-26.

As we already knew, Tulane's home games in the AAC are against Memphis, Navy, SMU and Temple. The road games are against UCF, UConn, Houston and Tulsa. Dates for those games will be announced much later.

This is what Tulane is dealing with

Yes, I understand media stories don't represent the truth, but the Associated Press listed college football openings and ranked them for attractiveness a little more than a week ago and had Tulane third to last, ahead of only North Texas and ULM and behind Toledo.

The writer even mentioned Tulane would pay well, so he's not clueless. Dannen is having to do a tremendous selling job in New York (where he is conducting this search) that things are ready to really change at Tulane. Never mind what is written. The 14 losing seasons in the last 17 years, 28 in the last 33 and four years with fewer than five losses since 1971 tell the story.

I believe Dannen's hiring and the board's commitment to winning signify a new era in Tulane athletics, but it's not always easy to convince others without proof.

http://nypost.com/2015/11/30/winners-and-losers-from-college-footballs-coaching-carousel/

The quiet before the storm?

I keep hearing Tulane wants to announce a new head coach before the end of the week, with a press conference likely early next week, but man, this coaching search is being conducted close to the vest. Nothing wrong with that, but it's hard to find any solid info.

The only known candidate for certain is Yurcich. Here is some background on him.

MIKE YURCICH

His offenses at Oklahoma State have ranked 14th (2013) tied for 73rd (2014) and ninth (2015) in points per game. In rushing offense the Cowboys have finished 63rd, 99th and 109th, so he is a pass-heavy coach, with rankings of 29th, 53rd and seventh this year, when sophomore QB Mason Rudolph had a phenomenal regular season despite a couple of rough games, including a three-interception, no-touchdown performance against West Virginia.

Tanner Lee would like this decision, I believe. Rudolph rushed for minus-12 yard on 62 carries (about 25 of them were sacks), so this is not an offense that relies on the quarterback running. The primary starting QB last year, Daxx Garman, rushed for minus-17 yards. The QBs in 2013, who split time, ran for more than 600 yards combined, so Yurcich is willing to tailor his offense to suit the talents of his QB.

The three Oklahoma State offensive coordinators before Yurcich got head coaching gigs. Larry Fedora, who did not call the plays (head coach Mike Gundy did), has been successful at Southern Misa and at North Carolina, where the Tar Heels were terrific offensively this year. Dana Holgorsen, who did call the plays in his one season as OC in 2010, is in danger of getting fired at West Virginia, where the promise of a 70-point Orange Bowl win over Clemson in 2011 has devolved into a four straight mediocre years with good offense and horrific defense. Todd Monken, who was a candidate for the Tulane job when CJ got hired, needed only three years to revitalize a USM program that hit rock bottom when Ellis Johnson replaced Fedora. Monken and Yurcich have called the plays.

Yurcich is 40.

Here's the most interesting article I found on him:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ma-states-prolific-offense-found-mike-yurcich

Recruiting movement

Based on recent articles on Rivals, it appears that OL commit Keenan Forbes Is, in his words, “out of here.” (https://tulane.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1834453). And DT, Alex Criddle is back to looking. (https://tulane.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1834369).

This, of course, is not surprising, and I would expect others of our commits who have options (ie. other offers) could also be looking elsewhere. The ones I’d personally hate to see us lose are Giovanni LaFrance, Jacq’co Price, Deion Rainey, and Jack Abraham. Because of the departure of coach Dave Johnson, I’m most concerned about LaFrance from St. Augustine, who has many offers. To me, he’s the “star” of our class and could be very tough to retain. Though I'm not that impressed with most of our commits, I hope our new coach is on board soon enough to evaluate them, make a pitch to those he likes, and conclude our recruiting on a high note.

Signing day is only eight weeks away.

Roll Wave!!!

Tulane Commit Jack Abraham

Jack Abraham fell a yard short of winning the Mississippi 5A championship last night in a 45-41 loss. His 9 yard run to the one yard line gave Oxford a final chance with 3 seconds to play but his ensuing completion as time expired was for no gain. For the night, he completed 35 passes in 43 attempts for 550 yards and 4 TD’s with 1 INT. For the season, he completed 332 passes in 495 attempts (67%) for 5,091 yards in 15 games. He threw for 57 TD’s and only 6 INT’s. He was named the Mississippi player of the year for 2015 and is one of the ten finalists for Parade Magazine’s National Player of the Year. He presumably will enroll at Tulane in four weeks. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

Roll Wave!!!
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