To most observers, Tulane baseball is looking better than it did last year at this time, although the last week or so wasn’t pretty. I think it is still a little early to put much faith in RPI, ours, after 29 games, is at 127. After 29 games last season, it was at 193 prior to ending the year at 158. Our Strength of Schedule, thus far, stands at 122, while at the same time last season, it was 45 prior to ending the year at 35. Of course, against that much tougher schedule, we stood at 8-21 to eventually end at 19-42. We’re now at 16-13. Where we’ll end up is anyone’s guess, but if we are not at least .500, it would be more than disappointing. According to Boyd’s World (NCAA Division I Baseball -- RPI Needs Report (boydsworld.com)), we’d need to win 24 of our remaining 26 games to be a top 45 RPI team. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t go on a huge run that, despite a poor RPI, would get us into a regional. Otherwise, we’re already looking to the conference tournament once again to “salvage” the season.
Hitting
To this point last year we were batting .238. We hit .261 the rest of the season to end at .251. Our power numbers also improved with only 32 HR’s through the first 29 games and another 51 through the final 32 games. Thus far this season, following the Texas Southern outburst, we’ve hit .273 with 43 HR.s , well ahead of last season’s pace against, arguably, weaker pitching.
One of the improvements is that we’ve been more aggressive. While our average before two strikes has stayed relatively the same (.373 to .370), we’ve cut down on the number of two strike counts. We’ve also improved our batting average with two strikes from .143 to .175.
Our four returning hitters: Banks (.301), Marget (.303), Schultz (.242), and Linn (.203) all had better second halves last season. Banks hit .212 in the first 29 games and .353 thereafter. Margot’s numbers were .295 and .319. Schultz .196 and .276, and Linn .202 and .222. Was it the warmer weather, weaker pitching, or improved batting? Hard to tell.
This year, those four guys are hitting .195, .315, .333 and .293 respectively. Against Texas Southern, Banks hopefully broke out of a season-long slump with a homer and double in two at bats to raise his batting average to .195, still below the “Mendoza line.” And Linn went two for three, breaking an 8 for 50 streak (.160), following a torrid start to the season (17 for 39, .436). If we’re to make any kind of run, those guys have to hit like they can.
Pitching
This is where we’ve seen the most statistical improvement. Last season through the first 29 games, our pitchers had a 6.45 ERA, really bad, but it got worse. The remaining 32 games we posted a 7.72 ERA to end up with a decades-old worst of 7.08. Why did we get worse? Was it we faced better hitting, warmer weather, or, as some suspect, poor coaching. This year, until this past weekend, we’ve had several pitchers look really good: Welch, Moore, Sheffler, and Price in particular. Unfortunately, between them, they allowed 15 earned runs in 10 innings against UTSA and Texas Southern, but still retain a cumulative ERA of 2.79. That’s very good. The rest of the team logs in at a 5.97 ERA- that’s bad, but not as bad as last year. The team ERA is 4.77
Fielding
Fielding average is one of the worst indicators of good defense, but without some of the more sophisticated analyses that examine Ultimate zone rating (UZR), Defensive Runs saved (DRS) and Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER), it’s about all we have that is objective. Last season we had a .970 fielding average, one of our worst in recent years, and this year it’s at .971. Of course, the move of Lombardi to the mound improved our defense at both 3rd base and left field when Schultz abandoned the latter to take over the former. Still, our defense is probably below average, certainly so for teams heading for post season.
So, what’s it all mean? I’ve said many times that I did not think Tulane should have hired Coach Uhlman as a leftover of a failed coaching staff. Once we logged our worst won-lost record in decades, I think he should have been fired. For good or ill, he was hired and he was retained. Now, we’re at where we’re at. While I think reaching a regional should be not only the goal, but the minimum required of a Tulane baseball coach, I think the rest of the season should be looked at very carefully before making any final judgement on his future at Tulane University. If we finish in the top three of the AAC in the regular season and don’t embarrass ourselves in the conference playoffs, I’d consider giving him one more year to reach the regionals outright (not some fluke conference championship.) I hope he can pull it off.
Roll Wave!!!
Hitting
To this point last year we were batting .238. We hit .261 the rest of the season to end at .251. Our power numbers also improved with only 32 HR’s through the first 29 games and another 51 through the final 32 games. Thus far this season, following the Texas Southern outburst, we’ve hit .273 with 43 HR.s , well ahead of last season’s pace against, arguably, weaker pitching.
One of the improvements is that we’ve been more aggressive. While our average before two strikes has stayed relatively the same (.373 to .370), we’ve cut down on the number of two strike counts. We’ve also improved our batting average with two strikes from .143 to .175.
Our four returning hitters: Banks (.301), Marget (.303), Schultz (.242), and Linn (.203) all had better second halves last season. Banks hit .212 in the first 29 games and .353 thereafter. Margot’s numbers were .295 and .319. Schultz .196 and .276, and Linn .202 and .222. Was it the warmer weather, weaker pitching, or improved batting? Hard to tell.
This year, those four guys are hitting .195, .315, .333 and .293 respectively. Against Texas Southern, Banks hopefully broke out of a season-long slump with a homer and double in two at bats to raise his batting average to .195, still below the “Mendoza line.” And Linn went two for three, breaking an 8 for 50 streak (.160), following a torrid start to the season (17 for 39, .436). If we’re to make any kind of run, those guys have to hit like they can.
Pitching
This is where we’ve seen the most statistical improvement. Last season through the first 29 games, our pitchers had a 6.45 ERA, really bad, but it got worse. The remaining 32 games we posted a 7.72 ERA to end up with a decades-old worst of 7.08. Why did we get worse? Was it we faced better hitting, warmer weather, or, as some suspect, poor coaching. This year, until this past weekend, we’ve had several pitchers look really good: Welch, Moore, Sheffler, and Price in particular. Unfortunately, between them, they allowed 15 earned runs in 10 innings against UTSA and Texas Southern, but still retain a cumulative ERA of 2.79. That’s very good. The rest of the team logs in at a 5.97 ERA- that’s bad, but not as bad as last year. The team ERA is 4.77
Fielding
Fielding average is one of the worst indicators of good defense, but without some of the more sophisticated analyses that examine Ultimate zone rating (UZR), Defensive Runs saved (DRS) and Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER), it’s about all we have that is objective. Last season we had a .970 fielding average, one of our worst in recent years, and this year it’s at .971. Of course, the move of Lombardi to the mound improved our defense at both 3rd base and left field when Schultz abandoned the latter to take over the former. Still, our defense is probably below average, certainly so for teams heading for post season.
So, what’s it all mean? I’ve said many times that I did not think Tulane should have hired Coach Uhlman as a leftover of a failed coaching staff. Once we logged our worst won-lost record in decades, I think he should have been fired. For good or ill, he was hired and he was retained. Now, we’re at where we’re at. While I think reaching a regional should be not only the goal, but the minimum required of a Tulane baseball coach, I think the rest of the season should be looked at very carefully before making any final judgement on his future at Tulane University. If we finish in the top three of the AAC in the regular season and don’t embarrass ourselves in the conference playoffs, I’d consider giving him one more year to reach the regionals outright (not some fluke conference championship.) I hope he can pull it off.
Roll Wave!!!
