First off, no one really knows other than the people on the committee, but based on history, I do not expect Tulane to end up in Baton Rouge. Until last year, when it clearly made sense for the Wave to play in Alex Box for the postseason, it had gone elsewhere the last two times it could have ended up in Baton Rouge. In 2004, Tulane went to Oxford and in 2008 Tulane went to Tallahassee (The Wave hosted in 2005, LSU did not make the NCAA tournament in 2006 and Tulane did not make the NCAA tournament in 2007).
Having just been to Baton Rouge last year, I expect Tulane to go to either Lafayette as a No. 2 seed or Hattiesburg as a No. 2 seed. Only if neither of those teams get regionals do I see Tulane going to Baton Rouge, and even then Oxford and Starkville would be viable options. It makes sense for La Tech or Southeastern to go to Baton Rouge as a No, 3 seed. (La Tech is a lock for an at-large bid, and I expect SLU to squeeze in with one of the last picks)
The way I see it, seven SEC schools are locks to host (Florida, Texas A&M, Miss St., Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU and Vandy) at least five ACC schools will host (Miami, Louisville, Clemson, FSU and probably Virginia) with a possibility of a sixth (NC State) and Texas Tech will host.
That leaves as many as three open spots to be divided up among a West Coast school as a No. 2 seed, ULL, USM, TCU, Coastal Carolina and the sixth ACC school. No one else is in the picture.
My best guess is the final spots will be filled by Arizona (highest RPI among west schools who submitted bids), TCU and ULL, although I would not be shocked if one of the others got it instead. TCU won the Big 12 tourney, has a high RPI and a spectacular 21-8 record against top 100 teams (although that number is less impressive when you break it down more closely). ULL is the only regional bubble team to win a regular season and tournament title and also has an RPI of 15.
As for the others, NC State faded down the stretch, Coastal Carolina had a losing record against the top 50 and is 13-11 versus the top 100 and USM should not be given full credit for winning its tourney since it was on its home field.
That means I see Tulane going to ULL as the No. 2 seed. I don't do prediction for the rest of the potential bracket because it's a crap shoot, but playing in Lafayette would give this team a good shot to advance (ULL would still be the slight favorite in my view). The best option would be Hattiesburg because I simply don't think USM is as talented as Tulane despite its home success this year. But ULL would still be a better destination that LSU, Ole Miss or Mississippi State, all of which are loaded.
Regardless, this clearly is Tulane's best chance to win a regional since 2005. I will go wherever they send the Wave and can't wait for Friday.
Having just been to Baton Rouge last year, I expect Tulane to go to either Lafayette as a No. 2 seed or Hattiesburg as a No. 2 seed. Only if neither of those teams get regionals do I see Tulane going to Baton Rouge, and even then Oxford and Starkville would be viable options. It makes sense for La Tech or Southeastern to go to Baton Rouge as a No, 3 seed. (La Tech is a lock for an at-large bid, and I expect SLU to squeeze in with one of the last picks)
The way I see it, seven SEC schools are locks to host (Florida, Texas A&M, Miss St., Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU and Vandy) at least five ACC schools will host (Miami, Louisville, Clemson, FSU and probably Virginia) with a possibility of a sixth (NC State) and Texas Tech will host.
That leaves as many as three open spots to be divided up among a West Coast school as a No. 2 seed, ULL, USM, TCU, Coastal Carolina and the sixth ACC school. No one else is in the picture.
My best guess is the final spots will be filled by Arizona (highest RPI among west schools who submitted bids), TCU and ULL, although I would not be shocked if one of the others got it instead. TCU won the Big 12 tourney, has a high RPI and a spectacular 21-8 record against top 100 teams (although that number is less impressive when you break it down more closely). ULL is the only regional bubble team to win a regular season and tournament title and also has an RPI of 15.
As for the others, NC State faded down the stretch, Coastal Carolina had a losing record against the top 50 and is 13-11 versus the top 100 and USM should not be given full credit for winning its tourney since it was on its home field.
That means I see Tulane going to ULL as the No. 2 seed. I don't do prediction for the rest of the potential bracket because it's a crap shoot, but playing in Lafayette would give this team a good shot to advance (ULL would still be the slight favorite in my view). The best option would be Hattiesburg because I simply don't think USM is as talented as Tulane despite its home success this year. But ULL would still be a better destination that LSU, Ole Miss or Mississippi State, all of which are loaded.
Regardless, this clearly is Tulane's best chance to win a regional since 2005. I will go wherever they send the Wave and can't wait for Friday.