UFC 311 Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 311 picks and predictions for December 7th with the main event headlined by Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan in a Lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA.
UFC 311 Predictions
Bogdon Guskov vs Billy Elekana
Guskov looked terrible and lost in his UFC debut, but credit him for ripping off two straight wins with his striking, and I think this is #3 in a row for him.
Elekena is stepping up on short notice, but I don’t think he’s that good. His notable win is a split decision against Chuck Campbell in PFL, and from what Iv’e seen he doesn’t throw enough volume of strikes to scare Guskov, and he doesn’t have a ground game to take advantage of Guskov’s weakness.
Look for Guskov to be the more powerful and active striker and get the win here.
Tagier Ulanbekov -325 vs Clayton Carpenter +260
I like Carpenter, but I feel like this is just going to be a bit too much for him in the wrestling and grappling.
He’s a solid wrestler, and is coming off a nice submission win, but Ulanbekov’s ground game is more complex, and dominant.
He’s going to be quicker, more flexible, and the experience is going to be the difference maker. Carpenter should try and make this a three-round striking fight, but eventually Ulanbekov will get this on the ground and I think he gets the submission win.
Grant Dawson -360 vs Diego Ferreira +285
This is my favorite parlay piece on the card. Dawson’s only loss in the UFC was when Bobby Green sparked him 30 seconds into the fight.
Other than that, he gets the wrestling and takedowns and dominates on the ground. Once he gets the body triangle or top position, the round is pretty much over and I don’t think Ferreira is going to be able to defend those positions.
Ferreira will have to get his striking going from the beginning, but I think it will only be a matter of time before Dawson gets his hands on Ferreira and drags him into deep waters.
Ferreira is 39 years old and is coming off two wins, but he beat Rebecki when Rebecki gassed himself trying to be a kickboxer, and gifted the fight to Ferreira, and Dawson won’t do that.
He KO’d Michael Johnson before that, but he’s struggled with wrestlers in the past as Gamrot took him down and injurred him to where he had to tap, and Gellespie took him down and finished him on the ground as well.
I love that Dawson sticks to the gameplan, and even though some people don’t like the non-stop wrestling, he’s said that’s how he wins, and he isn’t changing. I don’t see the 39 year old Ferreira staying on his feet in this fight for very long. Dawson should roll here.
Bernardo Sopaj -325 vs Ricky Turcios +260
Sopaj probably wins, but -325 is way too high for me. Sopaj made his UFC debut on short notice against Oliveira and got knocked out in one of the most violent knee I’ve ever seen.
That was last March so he’s healed, but that’s the kind of KO that changes a fighter. He has good striking, and he showed good cardio in that fight, and Turcios is pretty bad so I expect him to be able to land strikes, and possibly work a takedown or two in the mix like he did against Oliveira.
Turcios just doesn’t do anything great as his striking isn’t sharp, and his grappling and wrestling aren’t high-level…he just doesn’t
have any upside. Both guys have question marks, I’ll pick Sopaj to win, but I won’t be betting this fight.
Payton Talbott -1100 vs Raoni Barcelos +700
Talbott is the young star, and Barcelos is 37 with a lot of miles on his body, but the cagy veteran still has gas left in the tank as he got the submission win against Quinonez in his last fight.
I know Talbott has all the hype, and for good reason as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents, but Aguirre, Saaiman, and Ghemmouri are awful, and don’t be surprised if Barcelos has some tricks up his sleeve for Talbott.
Barcelos has the ability to get takedowns, his footwork and movement still look good, and I really think he’s going to give Talbott some problems. Can he win? I’m not sure, but there’s no chance I put Talbott in parlays at this price. Dog or nothing in this fight for me.
Zach Reese -285 vs Sedriques Dumas +230
I’ve been impressed with Reese in his career despite the holes in his game. He has big time finishing power and submissions, and his biggest weakness is honestly his lack of cage time as only one fight has gone out of the first round.
His last fight against Medina went the distance, and I thought it was great for him to go 15 minutes as he beat the hell out of Medina for 15 minutes, but you could see his cardio is a bit of an issue.
He was active in the 3rd round, but he definitely lost some steam off his strikes, and he was getting hit a bit too much for my liking, but he was still getting takedowns so credit to him.
Somehow, Dumas has gone the distance against Tiuliulin, Azaitar, and Brundage which is crazy because all those guys are under machines.
It goes to show that Dumas has good cardio, good defense, but he doesn’t have finishing power or submissions at this level, and I think we see more of that. He will try to clinch and keep close to Reese to avoid Reese’s big shots, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to get the win.
Reese will have the bigger moments, and I think Reese’s takedowns are better so Dumas is going to have to surprise Reese with something new. I like Reese to get the job done.
Karol Rosa -185 vs Ailin Perez +145
Perez has a simple game plan, and that’s get the fight to the ground, work the ground and pound, and win the first two rounds and hang on for the third. Perez has really good takedowns, and she can hold position, but her striking on the feet is bad and her cardio is a problem in the third.
This is an interesting matchup as Rosa will have the advantage on the feet as her punches and kicks are decent, and if she stuffs the takedowns she’ll cruise.
I just don’t think Rosa is that good, and I expect Perez to be able to get the early takedowns so I’ll take her as the dog in his spot.
Jailton Almeida -395 vs Serghei Spivac +310
I thought the books would give Spivac a bit more respect here after his easy win against Tybura, but they expect what I expect and that’s for Almeida to be the better wrestler here.
Spivac beat Tybura with an arm bar, but Tybura was on top of him and controlling position, and I see Almeida being able to do the same thing.
They both want to fight on the ground, but I think Almeida is going to be a bit quicker and more athletic with the wrestling, and Spivac has shown cardio issues if he doesn’t get the early finish.
He has pretty bad striking defense so Almeida might find success striking on the feet as well. I just think this is a nightmare matchup for Spivac where his opponent is a little better at what Spivac does best, and it would take something really surprising for him to win here. Almeida is the play.
Rinya Nakamura -470 vs Muin Gafurov +360
Gafurov got his first UFC win against Kang in his last fight after dropping his first two UFC fights, but it wasn’t the most confident win ever as Kang was having success in the third round before Gafurov finished strong.
Gafurov took Kang down and held him there the entire first round, but he’ll have no chance of doing that against Nakamura who is 9-0, and is a fantastic wrestler.
Nakamura is relentless with his pressure, he stays active on the ground, and he has really good ground and pound and cardio.
The way to beat him is to keep it on the feet and try and out strike him, but I don’t think Gafurov is that talented of a striker.
Gafurov does have good cardio, and he’ll be the best fighter that Nakamura has faced so I don’t think Gafurov gets finished, but he has short arms and legs so he has to get in close to do any damage and then he’s in Nakamura’s world. The odds make sense, Nakamura by decision in this one.
Kevin Holland -120 vs Reiner de Ridder +100
I wasn’t impressed with Ridder in his debut against Meerschaert. I thought he looked slow on the feet, and Meerschaert was able to stuff and reverse some of his takedowns, and even though he got the finish, Kevin Holland is light years faster and better than Meerschaert these days.
Holland’s striking is going to be so much better than Ridder’s, and Holland needs a good performance as he’s lost 3 out of 4 fights after suffering a rib injury in his last fight against Dolidze. Holland can grapple so I don’t think Ridder is going to have a big advantage in that department.
If Holland is healthy and focused, I think he’s the better fighter, but there’s always something crazy happening with a Kevin Holland fight so I’ve made it a rule that I don’t bet on Holland fights. He’s my pick, but sw sda
tsry s d
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 311 picks and predictions for December 7th with the main event headlined by Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan in a Lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA.
UFC 311 Predictions
Bogdon Guskov vs Billy Elekana
Guskov looked terrible and lost in his UFC debut, but credit him for ripping off two straight wins with his striking, and I think this is #3 in a row for him.
Elekena is stepping up on short notice, but I don’t think he’s that good. His notable win is a split decision against Chuck Campbell in PFL, and from what Iv’e seen he doesn’t throw enough volume of strikes to scare Guskov, and he doesn’t have a ground game to take advantage of Guskov’s weakness.
Look for Guskov to be the more powerful and active striker and get the win here.
Tagier Ulanbekov -325 vs Clayton Carpenter +260
I like Carpenter, but I feel like this is just going to be a bit too much for him in the wrestling and grappling.
He’s a solid wrestler, and is coming off a nice submission win, but Ulanbekov’s ground game is more complex, and dominant.
He’s going to be quicker, more flexible, and the experience is going to be the difference maker. Carpenter should try and make this a three-round striking fight, but eventually Ulanbekov will get this on the ground and I think he gets the submission win.
Grant Dawson -360 vs Diego Ferreira +285
This is my favorite parlay piece on the card. Dawson’s only loss in the UFC was when Bobby Green sparked him 30 seconds into the fight.
Other than that, he gets the wrestling and takedowns and dominates on the ground. Once he gets the body triangle or top position, the round is pretty much over and I don’t think Ferreira is going to be able to defend those positions.
Ferreira will have to get his striking going from the beginning, but I think it will only be a matter of time before Dawson gets his hands on Ferreira and drags him into deep waters.
Ferreira is 39 years old and is coming off two wins, but he beat Rebecki when Rebecki gassed himself trying to be a kickboxer, and gifted the fight to Ferreira, and Dawson won’t do that.
He KO’d Michael Johnson before that, but he’s struggled with wrestlers in the past as Gamrot took him down and injurred him to where he had to tap, and Gellespie took him down and finished him on the ground as well.
I love that Dawson sticks to the gameplan, and even though some people don’t like the non-stop wrestling, he’s said that’s how he wins, and he isn’t changing. I don’t see the 39 year old Ferreira staying on his feet in this fight for very long. Dawson should roll here.
Bernardo Sopaj -325 vs Ricky Turcios +260
Sopaj probably wins, but -325 is way too high for me. Sopaj made his UFC debut on short notice against Oliveira and got knocked out in one of the most violent knee I’ve ever seen.
That was last March so he’s healed, but that’s the kind of KO that changes a fighter. He has good striking, and he showed good cardio in that fight, and Turcios is pretty bad so I expect him to be able to land strikes, and possibly work a takedown or two in the mix like he did against Oliveira.
Turcios just doesn’t do anything great as his striking isn’t sharp, and his grappling and wrestling aren’t high-level…he just doesn’t
have any upside. Both guys have question marks, I’ll pick Sopaj to win, but I won’t be betting this fight.
Payton Talbott -1100 vs Raoni Barcelos +700
Talbott is the young star, and Barcelos is 37 with a lot of miles on his body, but the cagy veteran still has gas left in the tank as he got the submission win against Quinonez in his last fight.
I know Talbott has all the hype, and for good reason as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents, but Aguirre, Saaiman, and Ghemmouri are awful, and don’t be surprised if Barcelos has some tricks up his sleeve for Talbott.
Barcelos has the ability to get takedowns, his footwork and movement still look good, and I really think he’s going to give Talbott some problems. Can he win? I’m not sure, but there’s no chance I put Talbott in parlays at this price. Dog or nothing in this fight for me.
Zach Reese -285 vs Sedriques Dumas +230
I’ve been impressed with Reese in his career despite the holes in his game. He has big time finishing power and submissions, and his biggest weakness is honestly his lack of cage time as only one fight has gone out of the first round.
His last fight against Medina went the distance, and I thought it was great for him to go 15 minutes as he beat the hell out of Medina for 15 minutes, but you could see his cardio is a bit of an issue.
He was active in the 3rd round, but he definitely lost some steam off his strikes, and he was getting hit a bit too much for my liking, but he was still getting takedowns so credit to him.
Somehow, Dumas has gone the distance against Tiuliulin, Azaitar, and Brundage which is crazy because all those guys are under machines.
It goes to show that Dumas has good cardio, good defense, but he doesn’t have finishing power or submissions at this level, and I think we see more of that. He will try to clinch and keep close to Reese to avoid Reese’s big shots, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to get the win.
Reese will have the bigger moments, and I think Reese’s takedowns are better so Dumas is going to have to surprise Reese with something new. I like Reese to get the job done.
Karol Rosa -185 vs Ailin Perez +145
Perez has a simple game plan, and that’s get the fight to the ground, work the ground and pound, and win the first two rounds and hang on for the third. Perez has really good takedowns, and she can hold position, but her striking on the feet is bad and her cardio is a problem in the third.
This is an interesting matchup as Rosa will have the advantage on the feet as her punches and kicks are decent, and if she stuffs the takedowns she’ll cruise.
I just don’t think Rosa is that good, and I expect Perez to be able to get the early takedowns so I’ll take her as the dog in his spot.
Jailton Almeida -395 vs Serghei Spivac +310
I thought the books would give Spivac a bit more respect here after his easy win against Tybura, but they expect what I expect and that’s for Almeida to be the better wrestler here.
Spivac beat Tybura with an arm bar, but Tybura was on top of him and controlling position, and I see Almeida being able to do the same thing.
They both want to fight on the ground, but I think Almeida is going to be a bit quicker and more athletic with the wrestling, and Spivac has shown cardio issues if he doesn’t get the early finish.
He has pretty bad striking defense so Almeida might find success striking on the feet as well. I just think this is a nightmare matchup for Spivac where his opponent is a little better at what Spivac does best, and it would take something really surprising for him to win here. Almeida is the play.
Rinya Nakamura -470 vs Muin Gafurov +360
Gafurov got his first UFC win against Kang in his last fight after dropping his first two UFC fights, but it wasn’t the most confident win ever as Kang was having success in the third round before Gafurov finished strong.
Gafurov took Kang down and held him there the entire first round, but he’ll have no chance of doing that against Nakamura who is 9-0, and is a fantastic wrestler.
Nakamura is relentless with his pressure, he stays active on the ground, and he has really good ground and pound and cardio.
The way to beat him is to keep it on the feet and try and out strike him, but I don’t think Gafurov is that talented of a striker.
Gafurov does have good cardio, and he’ll be the best fighter that Nakamura has faced so I don’t think Gafurov gets finished, but he has short arms and legs so he has to get in close to do any damage and then he’s in Nakamura’s world. The odds make sense, Nakamura by decision in this one.
Kevin Holland -120 vs Reiner de Ridder +100
I wasn’t impressed with Ridder in his debut against Meerschaert. I thought he looked slow on the feet, and Meerschaert was able to stuff and reverse some of his takedowns, and even though he got the finish, Kevin Holland is light years faster and better than Meerschaert these days.
Holland’s striking is going to be so much better than Ridder’s, and Holland needs a good performance as he’s lost 3 out of 4 fights after suffering a rib injury in his last fight against Dolidze. Holland can grapple so I don’t think Ridder is going to have a big advantage in that department.
If Holland is healthy and focused, I think he’s the better fighter, but there’s always something crazy happening with a Kevin Holland fight so I’ve made it a rule that I don’t bet on Holland fights. He’s my pick, but sw sda
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