Teams earn regional host slots by what they do, and by what their competition does not do. While Tulane has the day off today to get ready for its pivotal matchup with Houston, here are some results that could help the Wave's hosting chances.
1) Louisiana-Lafayette loses to Arkansas State (approximate start time: 7:30)
ULL probably is ahead of Tulane in the race for hosting rights, but tournament action could change that order. The Cajuns won two of three from the Red Wolves on the road in the regular season. Arkansas State is .500 overall and 13-17 in the Sun Belt. An upset is unlikely, but possible.
2) TCU loses to Baylor in the Big 12 opening round (approximate start time: 4)
I'm higher on TCU's hosting chances than most, but I believe I am right in reading the selection committee's normal though process. The Horned Frogs finished third in a down Big 12 and have few series wins of note, but their RPI is high and their record agains the top 50 and top 100 is very good. Those often are the two most important criteria for the selection committee, but a quick exit from the Big 12 tourney would end TCU's chances.
3) Southern Miss loses to Old Dominion in CUSA opening round (approximate start time: 4)
I do not think the Golden Eagles deserve to host even if they win the CUSA tournament since it is on their home field, but the selection committee may feel differently. I've felt USM was overrated all year, and today could prove my point. ODU has a good team and easily could knock USM into the losers' bracket.
4) Oklahoma State loses to Texas in the Big 12 opening round (approximate start time: 7:30)
If the Cowboys win the Big 12 tourney, they could steal a hosting spot since they finished second in what somehow is rated the third best league in the country. Their other metrics aren't great, but why take any chances? Let's get rid of them as quickly as possible.
5) Nebraska loses to Michigan State in Big Ten opening round (approximate start time: 1)
I don't buy the idea the committee will put a regional in the north for geographic balance, but if I'm wrong, Nebraska has the strongest case as a hot No. 2 seed if it makes a deep run in the Big 10 tourney. A loss to Michigan State would put the Huskers in the losers' bracket and kill that talk.
6) Coastal Carolina loses to Gardner-Webb in Big South winner's bracket (approximate start time: 7)
I don't think Coastal Carolina will host, and I don't think Coastal Carolina will lose in a weak conference it has dominated all year. But if the Chanticleers somehow lose twice in this event, their hosting chances will officially be kaput.
It also would help Tulane if East Carolina or Connecticut reaches the championship game in the AAC. The RPI bump for beating them would be much better than beating Memphis or USF, The best-case scenario is ECU, which has a higher RPI than Tulane but would have no chance of hosting over the Wave if Tulane won the regular season and tourney championships.
1) Louisiana-Lafayette loses to Arkansas State (approximate start time: 7:30)
ULL probably is ahead of Tulane in the race for hosting rights, but tournament action could change that order. The Cajuns won two of three from the Red Wolves on the road in the regular season. Arkansas State is .500 overall and 13-17 in the Sun Belt. An upset is unlikely, but possible.
2) TCU loses to Baylor in the Big 12 opening round (approximate start time: 4)
I'm higher on TCU's hosting chances than most, but I believe I am right in reading the selection committee's normal though process. The Horned Frogs finished third in a down Big 12 and have few series wins of note, but their RPI is high and their record agains the top 50 and top 100 is very good. Those often are the two most important criteria for the selection committee, but a quick exit from the Big 12 tourney would end TCU's chances.
3) Southern Miss loses to Old Dominion in CUSA opening round (approximate start time: 4)
I do not think the Golden Eagles deserve to host even if they win the CUSA tournament since it is on their home field, but the selection committee may feel differently. I've felt USM was overrated all year, and today could prove my point. ODU has a good team and easily could knock USM into the losers' bracket.
4) Oklahoma State loses to Texas in the Big 12 opening round (approximate start time: 7:30)
If the Cowboys win the Big 12 tourney, they could steal a hosting spot since they finished second in what somehow is rated the third best league in the country. Their other metrics aren't great, but why take any chances? Let's get rid of them as quickly as possible.
5) Nebraska loses to Michigan State in Big Ten opening round (approximate start time: 1)
I don't buy the idea the committee will put a regional in the north for geographic balance, but if I'm wrong, Nebraska has the strongest case as a hot No. 2 seed if it makes a deep run in the Big 10 tourney. A loss to Michigan State would put the Huskers in the losers' bracket and kill that talk.
6) Coastal Carolina loses to Gardner-Webb in Big South winner's bracket (approximate start time: 7)
I don't think Coastal Carolina will host, and I don't think Coastal Carolina will lose in a weak conference it has dominated all year. But if the Chanticleers somehow lose twice in this event, their hosting chances will officially be kaput.
It also would help Tulane if East Carolina or Connecticut reaches the championship game in the AAC. The RPI bump for beating them would be much better than beating Memphis or USF, The best-case scenario is ECU, which has a higher RPI than Tulane but would have no chance of hosting over the Wave if Tulane won the regular season and tourney championships.