I like Tulane's chances today. It's never easy to beat a good team twice in a row, but with J.P. France going in the first game and Ross Massey going in the second against some combo of Andrew Lantrip, who has struggled since having arm problems, and Mitch Ullom, whom the Wave pounded last Friday, it's advantage, Tulane in the starting pitching department.
The keys will be not going into another prolonged hitting funk during the game and Massey pitching better than he has recently.
Most of the news from the other tournaments has been bad. As of late Friday night, the four teams I believe Tulane is competing with the most for one regional hosting spot (maybe two) are all undefeated in tournament play. ULL only has to beat mediocre Arkansas State once tomorrow out of two to get to the Sun Belt title game. Coastal Carolina already is in the championship game of the Big South. TCU is cruising in the Big 12 tournament and only has to beat Texas 1 out of 2 tomorrow to reach the championship game against either West Virginia and Oklahoma, which will be supremely motivated since neither has a shot at an at-large berth, but the Horned Frogs are just better than either one of them. USM is enjoying the home cooking in the CUSA tourney and just has to beat Marshall 1 out of 2 tomorrow to advance to the championship game. At least the Golden Eagles are likely to face tournament tested Rice when they get there.
Here are the key games for Saturday. I'm not putting ULL losing twice to Arkansas State on there because it ain't gonna happen.
1) Marshall needs to beat USM twice in the CUSA Tourney
Good look with that, but the Herd will be very motivated because it probably won't get an at-large bid without winning the CUSA title even though it finished ahead of USM and only a half-game out of first place in the regular season. The RPI and number of good victories are too low. USM beat Marshall 9-3 on Thursday.
2) Liberty needs to beat Coastal Carolina in the Big South championship game.
Liberty was swept by Coastal Carolina at home by the combined score of 43-12 this year, so it's a long shot, but the Flames will be motivated knowing they have to win to make the NCAA Tourney. Coastal Carolina now has the highest RPI of any team not in the SEC or ACC (12).
3) Memphis needs to beat UConn and then lose to the Huskies in the AAC tourney
I'm probably over thinking this, but Memphis is within striking distance of the top 200 at 210 and might climb into the top 200 with a win and a loss to No. 48 UConn. That would erase Tulane's only loss against a sub-200 team but still give the Wave a chance for an RPI boost of beating UConn for the title. A different line of thinking says pull for Memphis to win twice in a row because Tulane would have a much better chance of beating the Tigers than beating the Huskies after running out of arms by Sunday. But there's no way Memphis will beat UConn twice in a row.
Tulane's best case is as a double-winner of the AAC regular season and tournament titles, something TCU and USM cannot claim. ULL can, though, so that's why it is so vital the Cajuns come up short in the Sun Belt tourney.
The keys will be not going into another prolonged hitting funk during the game and Massey pitching better than he has recently.
Most of the news from the other tournaments has been bad. As of late Friday night, the four teams I believe Tulane is competing with the most for one regional hosting spot (maybe two) are all undefeated in tournament play. ULL only has to beat mediocre Arkansas State once tomorrow out of two to get to the Sun Belt title game. Coastal Carolina already is in the championship game of the Big South. TCU is cruising in the Big 12 tournament and only has to beat Texas 1 out of 2 tomorrow to reach the championship game against either West Virginia and Oklahoma, which will be supremely motivated since neither has a shot at an at-large berth, but the Horned Frogs are just better than either one of them. USM is enjoying the home cooking in the CUSA tourney and just has to beat Marshall 1 out of 2 tomorrow to advance to the championship game. At least the Golden Eagles are likely to face tournament tested Rice when they get there.
Here are the key games for Saturday. I'm not putting ULL losing twice to Arkansas State on there because it ain't gonna happen.
1) Marshall needs to beat USM twice in the CUSA Tourney
Good look with that, but the Herd will be very motivated because it probably won't get an at-large bid without winning the CUSA title even though it finished ahead of USM and only a half-game out of first place in the regular season. The RPI and number of good victories are too low. USM beat Marshall 9-3 on Thursday.
2) Liberty needs to beat Coastal Carolina in the Big South championship game.
Liberty was swept by Coastal Carolina at home by the combined score of 43-12 this year, so it's a long shot, but the Flames will be motivated knowing they have to win to make the NCAA Tourney. Coastal Carolina now has the highest RPI of any team not in the SEC or ACC (12).
3) Memphis needs to beat UConn and then lose to the Huskies in the AAC tourney
I'm probably over thinking this, but Memphis is within striking distance of the top 200 at 210 and might climb into the top 200 with a win and a loss to No. 48 UConn. That would erase Tulane's only loss against a sub-200 team but still give the Wave a chance for an RPI boost of beating UConn for the title. A different line of thinking says pull for Memphis to win twice in a row because Tulane would have a much better chance of beating the Tigers than beating the Huskies after running out of arms by Sunday. But there's no way Memphis will beat UConn twice in a row.
Tulane's best case is as a double-winner of the AAC regular season and tournament titles, something TCU and USM cannot claim. ULL can, though, so that's why it is so vital the Cajuns come up short in the Sun Belt tourney.