I'm not an expert and don't have inside info here, but after going over the candidates, I have to believe Tulane is in the running despite its RPI of 27 at the end of Saturday's play.
The Wave is 8-2 against the RPI top 25, a remarkable record. The Wave is 18-10 against the top 100, a solid mark. Tulane lost only one weekend series, and just one team, Kent State, went the whole year without losing any. And Tulane won the regular season title of the No. 6 RPI conference.
Unless the committee goes for geographic balance and awards a regional to someone in the north or midwest (Bryan? Minnesota? Don't think so), I believe the primary contenders for non-SEC/ACC regional are Tulane, Louisiana-Lafayette, Coastal Carolina and TCU at the moment. Forget C-USA. USM finished third, Rice finished fourth and both got swept this weekend. Marshall, the No. 2, might not even make the field. And FAU, the No. 1 has a weak facility in a state that almost certainly will get three regionals.
My guess is TCU would be the most likely to get a regional if nothing changes during conference tournament play, which is impossible. The Horned Frogs check most of the boxes the committee considers--RPI of 17, non-conference RPI of 11 and an impressive 19-8 record against the top 100 with no losses to sub-200 teams. The drawback is the distant third-place finish in the Big 12, but champion Texas Tech will be a national seed and the Big 12 is the No. 3 conference, so I think the committee would overlook the conference finish.
ULL, with an RPI of 18, is in the picture because South Alabama collapsed, blowing a four-game lead with five to play by losing twice to ULL and then dropping two to Troy while ULL swept ULM, handing the No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt to the Cajuns. ULL went 19-13 against the top 100 and played the No. 1-rated non-conference schedule (which goes strictly by winning percentage). ULL has no wins over top-25 teams but did split with Tulane.
Coastal Carolina has an RPI of 14, past pedigree and dominated its league and was a respectable 15-12 against the top 100 with wins over Virginia, UNC Wilmington and North Carolina. But the Chanticleers were swept at Georgia Tech at the beginning of May, and Georgia Tech finished 13-16i n the ACC.
If Tulane gets to the AAC Tourney final (and who the heck is going to pitch Tuesday night? My initial guess is Duester, which is scary) and TCU and ULL don't in their leagues, the Wave's case will be a lot stronger than most people realize. The RPI probably won't climb much with Houston at 71, Cincinnati at 108 and UCF at 148 but the other metrics are good.
Some of the teams ahead of Tulane in the RPI have zero shot at hosting over Tulane. North Carolina did not make the 10-team ACC tournament. Duke went 14-15 in the ACC. ECU finished behind Tulane in the AAC. Wake Forest went 13-17 in the AAC. If that RPI number climbs to the low 20s with a 3-0 start in the AAC tourney, I like the Wave's chances depending on what happens in the other tournaments. The teams to pull against are TCU and ULL.
The Wave is 8-2 against the RPI top 25, a remarkable record. The Wave is 18-10 against the top 100, a solid mark. Tulane lost only one weekend series, and just one team, Kent State, went the whole year without losing any. And Tulane won the regular season title of the No. 6 RPI conference.
Unless the committee goes for geographic balance and awards a regional to someone in the north or midwest (Bryan? Minnesota? Don't think so), I believe the primary contenders for non-SEC/ACC regional are Tulane, Louisiana-Lafayette, Coastal Carolina and TCU at the moment. Forget C-USA. USM finished third, Rice finished fourth and both got swept this weekend. Marshall, the No. 2, might not even make the field. And FAU, the No. 1 has a weak facility in a state that almost certainly will get three regionals.
My guess is TCU would be the most likely to get a regional if nothing changes during conference tournament play, which is impossible. The Horned Frogs check most of the boxes the committee considers--RPI of 17, non-conference RPI of 11 and an impressive 19-8 record against the top 100 with no losses to sub-200 teams. The drawback is the distant third-place finish in the Big 12, but champion Texas Tech will be a national seed and the Big 12 is the No. 3 conference, so I think the committee would overlook the conference finish.
ULL, with an RPI of 18, is in the picture because South Alabama collapsed, blowing a four-game lead with five to play by losing twice to ULL and then dropping two to Troy while ULL swept ULM, handing the No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt to the Cajuns. ULL went 19-13 against the top 100 and played the No. 1-rated non-conference schedule (which goes strictly by winning percentage). ULL has no wins over top-25 teams but did split with Tulane.
Coastal Carolina has an RPI of 14, past pedigree and dominated its league and was a respectable 15-12 against the top 100 with wins over Virginia, UNC Wilmington and North Carolina. But the Chanticleers were swept at Georgia Tech at the beginning of May, and Georgia Tech finished 13-16i n the ACC.
If Tulane gets to the AAC Tourney final (and who the heck is going to pitch Tuesday night? My initial guess is Duester, which is scary) and TCU and ULL don't in their leagues, the Wave's case will be a lot stronger than most people realize. The RPI probably won't climb much with Houston at 71, Cincinnati at 108 and UCF at 148 but the other metrics are good.
Some of the teams ahead of Tulane in the RPI have zero shot at hosting over Tulane. North Carolina did not make the 10-team ACC tournament. Duke went 14-15 in the ACC. ECU finished behind Tulane in the AAC. Wake Forest went 13-17 in the AAC. If that RPI number climbs to the low 20s with a 3-0 start in the AAC tourney, I like the Wave's chances depending on what happens in the other tournaments. The teams to pull against are TCU and ULL.