Most Tulane fans, including me, have to be happy with the 8-1 start of the baseball team. We're only one pitch away from being 9-0, though probably a couple of pitches away from being 6-3. Even the latter would probably have made most of our fans happy. Of course, last year we were 7-2 through nine games with a pitch or two away from being 9-0 or 6-3 also. But this year "feels" different.
Pitching[/B]: Through nine games, we have a 1.86 ERA compared to last year's 2.31. Both are clearly very good but it's hard to ignore the seven consecutive good starts by Yandel, Duester, Merrill, Massey, Yandel, Duester, and Gibbs. Through the last seven games, those guys have thrown 44 2/3 innings, allowed 25 hits, three earned runs (0.60 ERA), 15 BB's and 33 SO's. That's truly exceptional. And though, when I watch them pitch, none of them appears overpowering, the results tend to speak for themselves. In the bullpen, Gibault has thrown in five of our nine games and has been generally good. Strangely, three other guys, Johnson, Rankin, and Steel, have our three saves, while Gibault has our only "blown save." Overall, relief pitching has been very good.
Hitting[/B]: This year, through nine games, we're hitting .288 with eight HR's. Last year at this time, we were batting .277 with four HR's. Clearly we tailed off considerably last season, particularly on the power side of the equation (we hit only six HR's in our last 43 games). While I don't expect us to keep up a near "homer a game" pace this season, I do expect us to hit much better the rest of this season than last year. Still, I think we have several players who simple don't have the necessary "bat speed" to hit consistently at the college level. And it's not simply keeping up with the fast ball. Starting the swing early can solve that. But, committing to swing early causes batters to swing at bad balls, take good pitches, be far ahead of curves and change-ups, and it makes for some very ugly swings. It's causing us to get to two strikes far too often where virtually no one hits within .100 of his average earlier in the count. High school pitching with 80-85 MPH fast balls allows for a later commitment by the batter than 90 MPH college pitching. Again, I think we'll be better this year but we're playing all the same guys.
Fielding:[/B] We've made some spectacular plays this year, particularly by Brown and Alemais, and we're fielding at a .974 pace compared to last season's .970. And, if it hadn't been for the defensive meltdown by Rogers and Deschamp at third base in the third game against Pepperdine, our fielding percentage would be much higher. Last year, Alemais (16) and Hope (15) made almost half of our 64 errors. This year, Alemais (3), Hope (1), Deschamp (1), and Rogers (2) have contributed 7 of our ten errors from the SS and 3B positions. That clearly needs to improve as we go along, but I don't have any real complaints about our defense, though Carthon provides some thrills chasing balls when he's in the outfield.
Small Ball:[/B] To the proponents of "small ball," Coach Pierce must seem like a Messiah. Through nine games, we've attempted 16 steals compared to 48 all last year in 52 games. Of course, we've only been successful this year on eight occasions (50%) compared to the 36 for 48 (75%) last year. I don't think we've tried many hit and runs this season, and I know we've had at least two base runners thrown out "stealing" when the batter failed to make contact. But I think we also had one successful steal on a failed "hit and run." I'm not sure we've had any successful hit and runs but I haven't seen every game and the radio play-by-play, without Graf, has not been very trustworthy. Bunting, however, is where we've seen a huge change. Last season we had only 36 SH's all year (a little below the national average) and thus far this year, we already have 19 (*explanation below), the most in all of college baseball. Moreover, we've only had the lead runner thrown out on one bunt this year that I can recall, so we're 19 for 20 as far as that goes. Equally important, four of our "bunters" reached base without incurring an out-three by fielding errors and one by a fielder's choice when the throw was late to second. More telling, of our 31 base runners involved (the 27 on base and the four who reached), 12 have come around to score (38.7%). Compare this to our record of scoring base runners overall (36.8%) and we see that, despite the myriad of statistics compiled that would recommend very judicious use of the sacrifice, our wholesale use has resulted in slightly higher scoring results. Let's hope we continue this success.
(* The official site credits us with 20 SH's, but I'm pretty sure that is wrong. In the second game of the season, Carthon laid down a bunt, and the runner was thrown out at second (the only such occurrence this year), yet the official scorer credited a sacrifice to Carthon. It should have been a fielder's choice, time at bat, and no sacrifice. The official site continues to credit the SH.)
The Opposition:[/B] So far our opponents have a combined record of 25-49 (.338), which is REALLY BAD. I expect that to improve markedly over the season which should help our RPI. People tend to equate strength of schedule to opponent's RPI, but that is far from correct. Our RPI is based 25% on our winning percentage and 75% on "strength of schedule. 50% of that 75% is based on our opponent's win percentage and 25% based on their opponent's win percentage. Our opponent's RPI may give an indication of the strength of our schedule but it doesn't match the math.
Anyway, based on how it has started, I believe there is every reason for optimism this year, but I still have some nagging doubts that hopefully will be erased in the coming weeks.
Roll Wave!!!
Pitching[/B]: Through nine games, we have a 1.86 ERA compared to last year's 2.31. Both are clearly very good but it's hard to ignore the seven consecutive good starts by Yandel, Duester, Merrill, Massey, Yandel, Duester, and Gibbs. Through the last seven games, those guys have thrown 44 2/3 innings, allowed 25 hits, three earned runs (0.60 ERA), 15 BB's and 33 SO's. That's truly exceptional. And though, when I watch them pitch, none of them appears overpowering, the results tend to speak for themselves. In the bullpen, Gibault has thrown in five of our nine games and has been generally good. Strangely, three other guys, Johnson, Rankin, and Steel, have our three saves, while Gibault has our only "blown save." Overall, relief pitching has been very good.
Hitting[/B]: This year, through nine games, we're hitting .288 with eight HR's. Last year at this time, we were batting .277 with four HR's. Clearly we tailed off considerably last season, particularly on the power side of the equation (we hit only six HR's in our last 43 games). While I don't expect us to keep up a near "homer a game" pace this season, I do expect us to hit much better the rest of this season than last year. Still, I think we have several players who simple don't have the necessary "bat speed" to hit consistently at the college level. And it's not simply keeping up with the fast ball. Starting the swing early can solve that. But, committing to swing early causes batters to swing at bad balls, take good pitches, be far ahead of curves and change-ups, and it makes for some very ugly swings. It's causing us to get to two strikes far too often where virtually no one hits within .100 of his average earlier in the count. High school pitching with 80-85 MPH fast balls allows for a later commitment by the batter than 90 MPH college pitching. Again, I think we'll be better this year but we're playing all the same guys.
Fielding:[/B] We've made some spectacular plays this year, particularly by Brown and Alemais, and we're fielding at a .974 pace compared to last season's .970. And, if it hadn't been for the defensive meltdown by Rogers and Deschamp at third base in the third game against Pepperdine, our fielding percentage would be much higher. Last year, Alemais (16) and Hope (15) made almost half of our 64 errors. This year, Alemais (3), Hope (1), Deschamp (1), and Rogers (2) have contributed 7 of our ten errors from the SS and 3B positions. That clearly needs to improve as we go along, but I don't have any real complaints about our defense, though Carthon provides some thrills chasing balls when he's in the outfield.
Small Ball:[/B] To the proponents of "small ball," Coach Pierce must seem like a Messiah. Through nine games, we've attempted 16 steals compared to 48 all last year in 52 games. Of course, we've only been successful this year on eight occasions (50%) compared to the 36 for 48 (75%) last year. I don't think we've tried many hit and runs this season, and I know we've had at least two base runners thrown out "stealing" when the batter failed to make contact. But I think we also had one successful steal on a failed "hit and run." I'm not sure we've had any successful hit and runs but I haven't seen every game and the radio play-by-play, without Graf, has not been very trustworthy. Bunting, however, is where we've seen a huge change. Last season we had only 36 SH's all year (a little below the national average) and thus far this year, we already have 19 (*explanation below), the most in all of college baseball. Moreover, we've only had the lead runner thrown out on one bunt this year that I can recall, so we're 19 for 20 as far as that goes. Equally important, four of our "bunters" reached base without incurring an out-three by fielding errors and one by a fielder's choice when the throw was late to second. More telling, of our 31 base runners involved (the 27 on base and the four who reached), 12 have come around to score (38.7%). Compare this to our record of scoring base runners overall (36.8%) and we see that, despite the myriad of statistics compiled that would recommend very judicious use of the sacrifice, our wholesale use has resulted in slightly higher scoring results. Let's hope we continue this success.
(* The official site credits us with 20 SH's, but I'm pretty sure that is wrong. In the second game of the season, Carthon laid down a bunt, and the runner was thrown out at second (the only such occurrence this year), yet the official scorer credited a sacrifice to Carthon. It should have been a fielder's choice, time at bat, and no sacrifice. The official site continues to credit the SH.)
The Opposition:[/B] So far our opponents have a combined record of 25-49 (.338), which is REALLY BAD. I expect that to improve markedly over the season which should help our RPI. People tend to equate strength of schedule to opponent's RPI, but that is far from correct. Our RPI is based 25% on our winning percentage and 75% on "strength of schedule. 50% of that 75% is based on our opponent's win percentage and 25% based on their opponent's win percentage. Our opponent's RPI may give an indication of the strength of our schedule but it doesn't match the math.
Anyway, based on how it has started, I believe there is every reason for optimism this year, but I still have some nagging doubts that hopefully will be erased in the coming weeks.
Roll Wave!!!