Houston was supposed to be a College World Series contender, then tanked early before making a nice recovery.
UCF looks like it has the best team in program history. The Knights have never sniffed Omaha but appear good enough to contend for at least a regional title this year.
Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, UConn and East Carolina are the unknowns, capable of contending or finishing near the bottom.
Cincinnati stinks even though it has the league's top Major League prospect.
That's the quick summary. Here's a more in-depth look.
1) THE FAVORITE: HOUSTON
Record: 18-7
Plays Tulane: April 10-12 in Houston, May 1-3 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball.com ranking: 20
Analysis: The Cougars clearly got caught up in the hype that they were a College World Series caliber team after a 6-0 start when they outscored Minnesota, Texas Southern and Alabama 47-16. They promptly dumped seven of their next nine games, getting outscored 51-34. Their only two wins in that span were at home against Columbia, which split a four-game series with Houston and is winless against any other team in the RPI top 200. Since then, the Cougars have won 10 in a row, including a 17-7 pasting of Sam Houston State and a 9-3 rout of Rice. The last four wins have been by one run, though, so it remains unclear how good Houston is. Last year the Cougars stunned LSU in the Baton Rouge Regional before falling to Texas in a Super Regional.
Their numbers aren't overwhelming--a .281 batting average and a 3.36 ERA. Junior Chris Iriart is hitting .356 with six home runs, and Friday ace Andrew Lantrip is 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA.
The Cougars open their conference schedule this evening at UCF, which is ranked higher, so we'll get a good read on the teams that appear to be the league's two best right away.
2) THE CONTENDER: UCF
Record: 20-6
Plays Tulane: April 17-19 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball.com ranking: 10
Analysis: I question how this team is ranked 10th, but after living in Florida from 1990 to 2007, I'm used to the non-big three schools being overrated every time it looks like they are ready for a breakthrough. Terry Rooney has done a nice job in six years as coach at UCF, bringing in highly ranked recruiting classes, but UCF has not been to a regional since back-to-back appearances in 2011 and 2012. This year, they have some impressive wins, but a series victory against Ole Miss looked better at the time than it does now with the Rebels standing at 13-13 and having gotten whipped in two midweek games by UAB. UCF beat Florida 4-3, then lost to the Gators 10-2 and got swept by FSU 11-8 and 15-11. The Knights just lost to Jacksonville 13-9 and clearly have pitching depth issues. They've given up 10 or more runs six times, with all but one of them coming in midweek games.
The Knights are terrific at the plate, ranking third nationally in bating average (.330) and first in home runs (their 38 is six more than any other team) but they are shaky on the mound (ERA: 4.97). That formula does not bode well for a conference championship unless we're going back to the gorilla ball days. Color me skeptical.
3) TOO EARLY? SOUTH FLORIDA
Record: 17-8-1
Plays Tulane: May 8-10 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball Ranking: unranked
Analysis: Mark Kingston is an excellent coach, but can he transform the most underachieving program in Florida into a regional team right away? Incredibly, the Bulls have not been to the postseason since 2002, and in nine regional appearances under former coach Eddie Cardieri, they never got to the championship game. This year, most of their wins have come against lesser lights, and an impressive opening victory against Cal St. Fulllerton has been devalued by the Titans' underwhelming 12-12 start. USF lost 24-1 to FSU and 13-3 to Florida and 13-1 to Illinois before salvaging the third game of a series loss to the Illini.
Like Tulane, USF struggles at the plate, hitting .249. with only one batter above .300. Its weekend rotation is solid, and reliever Tommy Peterson has seven saves.
4) TOO FAR NORTH: UCONN
Record: 15-8
Plays Tulane: March 27-29 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball Ranking; unranked
Analysis: Since getting swept by FAU to start the season, losing the last two games by one run, the Huskies have not really played anybody. Their only game against a team with a winning record was a 6-2 loss to Wake Forest, although they did beat recent regional participant Kennesaw State in a weekend series. UConn had a losing record last year and went 8-13 in the first season of AAC play, but the Huskies reached a regional in 2013 and won a regional in 2011, so they have a recent history of success. It's always hard to judge northern teams early in the year because they tend to struggle against southern competition, so it's anyone's guess what UConn will do in league play.
Pitching has been the Huskies' strength so far with an ERA of 2.45. Starters Anthony Kay and Carson Cross have ERAs below 2.00 and have struck out a ton of batters.
The hitting is OK, with a batting average of .281. Leadoff hitter Jack Sundberg has stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against rocket-release Tulane catcher Jake Rogers. UConn arrives in New Orleans having scored 35 runs in its last two games against Yale and Central Connecticut.
5) ALTERING HISTORY: MEMPHIS
Record: 15-5
Plays Tulane: May 14-16 in Memphis
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: The Tigers have been longtime doormats, making just two regional appearances since 1981 (1994, 2007), but that has changed slowly under coach Daron Schoenrock, who has produced four consecutive winning seasons while being competitive in conference play. Memphis capped an 11-game winning streak by beating Arkansas 5-4 in North Little Rock on Tuesday before dropping a return engagement in Memphis on Wednesday. The Tigers allowed a total of 23 runs during that long streak, holding eight opponents to two runs or fewer. Then again, seven of those victories came against winless Eastern Illinois and 5-18 Alcorn State, and Arkansas is a mediocre 12-13.
The new balls have not helped Memphis' power--the Tigers have only six home runs. Their overall statistics are solid (.298 average, 2.51 ERA), but the substandard competition factors in there. They open at East Carolina and then play a home series against Houston. We'll know a lot more about them after two weeks of conference play.
6) STARTING OVER: EAST CAROLINA
Record: 16-10
Plays Tulane: April 2-4 in Greenville
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: A perennial regional team under former coach Billy Godwin, the Pirates missed out on the postseason after finishing 31-26 and 33-26 the past two years, so Godwin was shown the door. His replacement is former Ole Miss assistant Cliff Godwin (no relation), who may need some time to get the program back to it accustomed spot. The Pirates have lost four of their last five games, dropping a weekend series to VCU and falling in both midweek games, including a 13-2 thumping by High Point. Their best result was a weekend sweep of Elon earlier this month.
Luke Lowery is a menace at the plate, hitting .423 with eight home runs, and the Pirates have a solid average of .301, but those numbers are misleading. ECU scored five runs while getting swept by Virginia to start the year and has scored two runs in each of its last three losses. The team ERA is 2.95, and until the loss to High Point the Pirates had not allowed double-digit runs in a game.
7) NEVER MIND: CINCINNATI
Record: 6-16
Plays Tulane: March 24-26 at Cincinnati
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: Has there ever been a team this bad that also boasted a league's preseason Player of the Year? Major League prospect Ian Happ is cruising along with a .418 batting average, seven home runs, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored even though opponents pitch around him. He is getting no help, though. Cincinnati hits .233 as a team and has an ERA of 6.46. Yikes. The Bearcats enter their AAC opening series against South Florida on a five-game losing streak after having a nine-game skid earlier this year. They are the only bad team in the conference.
This post was edited on 3/27 10:37 AM by Guerry Smith
This post was edited on 3/27 10:42 AM by Guerry Smith
UCF looks like it has the best team in program history. The Knights have never sniffed Omaha but appear good enough to contend for at least a regional title this year.
Tulane, South Florida, Memphis, UConn and East Carolina are the unknowns, capable of contending or finishing near the bottom.
Cincinnati stinks even though it has the league's top Major League prospect.
That's the quick summary. Here's a more in-depth look.
1) THE FAVORITE: HOUSTON
Record: 18-7
Plays Tulane: April 10-12 in Houston, May 1-3 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball.com ranking: 20
Analysis: The Cougars clearly got caught up in the hype that they were a College World Series caliber team after a 6-0 start when they outscored Minnesota, Texas Southern and Alabama 47-16. They promptly dumped seven of their next nine games, getting outscored 51-34. Their only two wins in that span were at home against Columbia, which split a four-game series with Houston and is winless against any other team in the RPI top 200. Since then, the Cougars have won 10 in a row, including a 17-7 pasting of Sam Houston State and a 9-3 rout of Rice. The last four wins have been by one run, though, so it remains unclear how good Houston is. Last year the Cougars stunned LSU in the Baton Rouge Regional before falling to Texas in a Super Regional.
Their numbers aren't overwhelming--a .281 batting average and a 3.36 ERA. Junior Chris Iriart is hitting .356 with six home runs, and Friday ace Andrew Lantrip is 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA.
The Cougars open their conference schedule this evening at UCF, which is ranked higher, so we'll get a good read on the teams that appear to be the league's two best right away.
2) THE CONTENDER: UCF
Record: 20-6
Plays Tulane: April 17-19 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball.com ranking: 10
Analysis: I question how this team is ranked 10th, but after living in Florida from 1990 to 2007, I'm used to the non-big three schools being overrated every time it looks like they are ready for a breakthrough. Terry Rooney has done a nice job in six years as coach at UCF, bringing in highly ranked recruiting classes, but UCF has not been to a regional since back-to-back appearances in 2011 and 2012. This year, they have some impressive wins, but a series victory against Ole Miss looked better at the time than it does now with the Rebels standing at 13-13 and having gotten whipped in two midweek games by UAB. UCF beat Florida 4-3, then lost to the Gators 10-2 and got swept by FSU 11-8 and 15-11. The Knights just lost to Jacksonville 13-9 and clearly have pitching depth issues. They've given up 10 or more runs six times, with all but one of them coming in midweek games.
The Knights are terrific at the plate, ranking third nationally in bating average (.330) and first in home runs (their 38 is six more than any other team) but they are shaky on the mound (ERA: 4.97). That formula does not bode well for a conference championship unless we're going back to the gorilla ball days. Color me skeptical.
3) TOO EARLY? SOUTH FLORIDA
Record: 17-8-1
Plays Tulane: May 8-10 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball Ranking: unranked
Analysis: Mark Kingston is an excellent coach, but can he transform the most underachieving program in Florida into a regional team right away? Incredibly, the Bulls have not been to the postseason since 2002, and in nine regional appearances under former coach Eddie Cardieri, they never got to the championship game. This year, most of their wins have come against lesser lights, and an impressive opening victory against Cal St. Fulllerton has been devalued by the Titans' underwhelming 12-12 start. USF lost 24-1 to FSU and 13-3 to Florida and 13-1 to Illinois before salvaging the third game of a series loss to the Illini.
Like Tulane, USF struggles at the plate, hitting .249. with only one batter above .300. Its weekend rotation is solid, and reliever Tommy Peterson has seven saves.
4) TOO FAR NORTH: UCONN
Record: 15-8
Plays Tulane: March 27-29 at Turchin Stadium
D1Baseball Ranking; unranked
Analysis: Since getting swept by FAU to start the season, losing the last two games by one run, the Huskies have not really played anybody. Their only game against a team with a winning record was a 6-2 loss to Wake Forest, although they did beat recent regional participant Kennesaw State in a weekend series. UConn had a losing record last year and went 8-13 in the first season of AAC play, but the Huskies reached a regional in 2013 and won a regional in 2011, so they have a recent history of success. It's always hard to judge northern teams early in the year because they tend to struggle against southern competition, so it's anyone's guess what UConn will do in league play.
Pitching has been the Huskies' strength so far with an ERA of 2.45. Starters Anthony Kay and Carson Cross have ERAs below 2.00 and have struck out a ton of batters.
The hitting is OK, with a batting average of .281. Leadoff hitter Jack Sundberg has stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts, so it will be interesting to see how he fares against rocket-release Tulane catcher Jake Rogers. UConn arrives in New Orleans having scored 35 runs in its last two games against Yale and Central Connecticut.
5) ALTERING HISTORY: MEMPHIS
Record: 15-5
Plays Tulane: May 14-16 in Memphis
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: The Tigers have been longtime doormats, making just two regional appearances since 1981 (1994, 2007), but that has changed slowly under coach Daron Schoenrock, who has produced four consecutive winning seasons while being competitive in conference play. Memphis capped an 11-game winning streak by beating Arkansas 5-4 in North Little Rock on Tuesday before dropping a return engagement in Memphis on Wednesday. The Tigers allowed a total of 23 runs during that long streak, holding eight opponents to two runs or fewer. Then again, seven of those victories came against winless Eastern Illinois and 5-18 Alcorn State, and Arkansas is a mediocre 12-13.
The new balls have not helped Memphis' power--the Tigers have only six home runs. Their overall statistics are solid (.298 average, 2.51 ERA), but the substandard competition factors in there. They open at East Carolina and then play a home series against Houston. We'll know a lot more about them after two weeks of conference play.
6) STARTING OVER: EAST CAROLINA
Record: 16-10
Plays Tulane: April 2-4 in Greenville
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: A perennial regional team under former coach Billy Godwin, the Pirates missed out on the postseason after finishing 31-26 and 33-26 the past two years, so Godwin was shown the door. His replacement is former Ole Miss assistant Cliff Godwin (no relation), who may need some time to get the program back to it accustomed spot. The Pirates have lost four of their last five games, dropping a weekend series to VCU and falling in both midweek games, including a 13-2 thumping by High Point. Their best result was a weekend sweep of Elon earlier this month.
Luke Lowery is a menace at the plate, hitting .423 with eight home runs, and the Pirates have a solid average of .301, but those numbers are misleading. ECU scored five runs while getting swept by Virginia to start the year and has scored two runs in each of its last three losses. The team ERA is 2.95, and until the loss to High Point the Pirates had not allowed double-digit runs in a game.
7) NEVER MIND: CINCINNATI
Record: 6-16
Plays Tulane: March 24-26 at Cincinnati
D1Baseball.com Ranking: unranked
Analysis: Has there ever been a team this bad that also boasted a league's preseason Player of the Year? Major League prospect Ian Happ is cruising along with a .418 batting average, seven home runs, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored even though opponents pitch around him. He is getting no help, though. Cincinnati hits .233 as a team and has an ERA of 6.46. Yikes. The Bearcats enter their AAC opening series against South Florida on a five-game losing streak after having a nine-game skid earlier this year. They are the only bad team in the conference.
This post was edited on 3/27 10:37 AM by Guerry Smith
This post was edited on 3/27 10:42 AM by Guerry Smith