I am done with the top-10 rankings of Group of Five teams because the pecking order is obvious now, with Boise No. 1, Tulane No. 2, Army No. 3, UNLV No. 4 and no one else in the picture. The odds are Tulane will not make the playoff even if it beats Memphis and Army, but hope is not all gone. I can even conjure a scenario where Tulane gets a bye and is the No. 4 seed.
Here is what has to happen:
1) Boise State loses in the Mountain West Championship Game to either UNLV or Colorado State. I can't imagine Boise losing to either Wyoming or Oregon State, so it will come down to the league title game that will be played Dec. 6 on FOX at the exact same time as the Tulane-Army game on ESPN. A Tulane win would make the Wave the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, assuming the committee does not raise UNLV (if UNLV is the team that beats Boise) above the Wave.
2) The Big 12 has chaos the rest of the way, with a three-loss champion emerging. It's not likely, but it's not a crazy long shot either. Colorado plays at Kansas at 2;30 p.m. Saturday, and those are the two hottest teams in the league. Kansas is only a field goal underdog, and it can hand Colorado its third loss of the year. BYU plays at Arizona State at the same time, and the Sun Devils are favored to hand the Cougars their second consecutive loss. Say Kansas and Arizona State both win. The following week, Arizona State plays at Arizona, which was supposed to be considerably better than the Sun Devils this season. The Big 12 is balanced enough that it would not be a huge surprise if the Wildcats won. That would give Arizona State a third loss. Iowa State has only two losses as well but plays at Utah (probably win) and hosts Kansas State (toss-up) to finish the year. It's easy to see Iowa State losing a third time. I have no idea who would be the second Big 12 team in the championship game if everyone has at least three conference losses except for Colorado, but if that team beat the Buffaloes in the title matchup, an 11-2 Tulane would finish ahead of the Big 12 champ as the fourth-highest rated conference champion. Tulane actually compares favorably with some Big 12 teams that would only have two losses, but there's no way the committee will exclude the Big 12 from the playoffs entirely unless the results give it no choice, so I'm pretty sure it would have to be the scenario I just wrote about. Anyone truly can beat anyone in that league, so it's not out of the realm of possibility this could happen.
Regardless, this Saturday will let us know if there is a path to the playoff other than Boise State losing. If Colorado beats Kansas and BYU beats Arizona State, the second option will pretty much be closed unless BYU turned around and lost at home to Houston, still reached the title game and beat Colorado, which is veering into the territory of absurdity.
I have mixed feelings about who fans should pull for in the Notre Dame-Army game. I'd be very surprised if Notre Dame lost, but one look at my positioning in the picks contest shows how often I've been wrong this season. An Army win would mean Tulane would have to travel to Army for a cold-weather conference championship game unless Army lost its conference finale to UTSA, but Tulane is 12-0 on the road over the last three years in conference play. A victory against an undefeated Army team on the road would be huge for Tulane's perceived strength. Personally, I want Tulane to host the title game because it would be a hassle arranging a quick trip to New York, but I see the logic in wanting Army to keep winning. Tulane matches up very well with option teams and would be the clear favorite no matter where that game were played.
I truly believe Tulane can win a playoff game. I'm not saying I would pick the Wave to win, particularly if it was a 12 seed traveling to a 5 seed, but there is no super team in college football this season, and this team is talented enough to compete with anyone. If Tulane wins out, it would be brutal to face a mediocre team in a meaningless bowl.
Here is what has to happen:
1) Boise State loses in the Mountain West Championship Game to either UNLV or Colorado State. I can't imagine Boise losing to either Wyoming or Oregon State, so it will come down to the league title game that will be played Dec. 6 on FOX at the exact same time as the Tulane-Army game on ESPN. A Tulane win would make the Wave the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, assuming the committee does not raise UNLV (if UNLV is the team that beats Boise) above the Wave.
2) The Big 12 has chaos the rest of the way, with a three-loss champion emerging. It's not likely, but it's not a crazy long shot either. Colorado plays at Kansas at 2;30 p.m. Saturday, and those are the two hottest teams in the league. Kansas is only a field goal underdog, and it can hand Colorado its third loss of the year. BYU plays at Arizona State at the same time, and the Sun Devils are favored to hand the Cougars their second consecutive loss. Say Kansas and Arizona State both win. The following week, Arizona State plays at Arizona, which was supposed to be considerably better than the Sun Devils this season. The Big 12 is balanced enough that it would not be a huge surprise if the Wildcats won. That would give Arizona State a third loss. Iowa State has only two losses as well but plays at Utah (probably win) and hosts Kansas State (toss-up) to finish the year. It's easy to see Iowa State losing a third time. I have no idea who would be the second Big 12 team in the championship game if everyone has at least three conference losses except for Colorado, but if that team beat the Buffaloes in the title matchup, an 11-2 Tulane would finish ahead of the Big 12 champ as the fourth-highest rated conference champion. Tulane actually compares favorably with some Big 12 teams that would only have two losses, but there's no way the committee will exclude the Big 12 from the playoffs entirely unless the results give it no choice, so I'm pretty sure it would have to be the scenario I just wrote about. Anyone truly can beat anyone in that league, so it's not out of the realm of possibility this could happen.
Regardless, this Saturday will let us know if there is a path to the playoff other than Boise State losing. If Colorado beats Kansas and BYU beats Arizona State, the second option will pretty much be closed unless BYU turned around and lost at home to Houston, still reached the title game and beat Colorado, which is veering into the territory of absurdity.
I have mixed feelings about who fans should pull for in the Notre Dame-Army game. I'd be very surprised if Notre Dame lost, but one look at my positioning in the picks contest shows how often I've been wrong this season. An Army win would mean Tulane would have to travel to Army for a cold-weather conference championship game unless Army lost its conference finale to UTSA, but Tulane is 12-0 on the road over the last three years in conference play. A victory against an undefeated Army team on the road would be huge for Tulane's perceived strength. Personally, I want Tulane to host the title game because it would be a hassle arranging a quick trip to New York, but I see the logic in wanting Army to keep winning. Tulane matches up very well with option teams and would be the clear favorite no matter where that game were played.
I truly believe Tulane can win a playoff game. I'm not saying I would pick the Wave to win, particularly if it was a 12 seed traveling to a 5 seed, but there is no super team in college football this season, and this team is talented enough to compete with anyone. If Tulane wins out, it would be brutal to face a mediocre team in a meaningless bowl.
