Well, Tulane avoided what would have been one of the embarrassing two-game stretches in program history by outscoring East Carolina 4-2 in OT last night. To have lost back-to-back games against USF and ECU would have meant losing to two teams that are a combined 2-16 against everyone else, with the two wins coming by ECU over USF.
Additionally. ECU had lost its seven conference games by a combined 153 points (average: 22) entering last night while USF's nine losses have come by a combined 197 points (average: 22). Performance-wise, they are the two worst teams in AAC history, and last night ECU was without 6-10 starting center Jabari Craig, a bad player who nevertheless provides some size the Pirates sorely lack.
Wow. Just wow. But the good news is teams NEVER play the same way each game. If Tulane plays like it did for the first 34 minutes against USF and the last 20 against ECU, it will not win another game, but that's not what will happen.
This is still the same team that scored on seven consecutive possessions during a decisive stretch to beat SMU, executed very well down the stretch to beat Houston and dominated Temple on the road.
At some point, Cameron Reynolds will come out of the shooting slump that has affected him on 2s and 3s. He started to come out of it last night before missing badly on three shots in the second half. He's a good player with a good work ethic with too much game to continue misfiring like he has.
I'm more concerned about Jordan Cornish, a good passer whose bullet entry to Reynolds allowed Tulane to tie the score in OT lats night. The problem is his shot selection and scoring ability. He just has not demonstrated an ability to finish inside or outside, drifting on his shots and missing badly more often than he misses by a little. My spies said he was the best player on the team in practice last year, but he has not shown it this year.
Blake Paul is Blake Paul. He plays hard and blocks some shots but struggles to score at all unless he has a size mismatch.
Ray Ona Embo is not much of a distributor but has become a pretty good outside shooter and scorer. If he cuts out the careless turnovers that have hurt Tulane at critical times, he can help Tulane win.
Caleb Daniels has not progressed as much as I expected, but there is still time. He has to start taking better care of the ball.
Samir Sehic is playing defense and rebounding a lot better than he did earlier in the year, when he became a liability on the floor. If he starts consistently knocking down open 3-pointers, which he is capable of but has not done to this point, it will open up the floor and complement his ability to finish around the basket.
Melvin Frazier, of course, has been spectacular. He tailed off in the second half last night before scoring the winning bucket on a put-back, but he did not even practice two days before the game because he was sick. I think he ran out of energy after his terrific first half.
Tulane is 4-5 with nine games left. Looking at the schedule, and assuming the last two games do not become the norm, the most likely outcome is 4-5 the rest of the way (pretty much sure losses at Houston and at Wichita State and at home against Cincinnati; likely wins at home against ECU and at USF; splits in the four games against Temple and Memphis at home and Tulsa and UCF on the road).
An 8-10 record would be worse than I expected when conference play began, but it still would be two games better than Tulane's high-water mark of 6-12 in 2014-15, its first year in the AAC. The conference is still so muddled in the middle that it is hard to predict where Tulane will finish.
The concern is Frazier leaving for the NBA, a real possibility. He has holes in his game that would be exposed, but it's hard to argue with a guy shooting nearly 60 percent in a pretty good league. Without him and Reynolds, Tulane would be less talented next year than this unless the two incoming freshmen (to this point) lit it up.
Additionally. ECU had lost its seven conference games by a combined 153 points (average: 22) entering last night while USF's nine losses have come by a combined 197 points (average: 22). Performance-wise, they are the two worst teams in AAC history, and last night ECU was without 6-10 starting center Jabari Craig, a bad player who nevertheless provides some size the Pirates sorely lack.
Wow. Just wow. But the good news is teams NEVER play the same way each game. If Tulane plays like it did for the first 34 minutes against USF and the last 20 against ECU, it will not win another game, but that's not what will happen.
This is still the same team that scored on seven consecutive possessions during a decisive stretch to beat SMU, executed very well down the stretch to beat Houston and dominated Temple on the road.
At some point, Cameron Reynolds will come out of the shooting slump that has affected him on 2s and 3s. He started to come out of it last night before missing badly on three shots in the second half. He's a good player with a good work ethic with too much game to continue misfiring like he has.
I'm more concerned about Jordan Cornish, a good passer whose bullet entry to Reynolds allowed Tulane to tie the score in OT lats night. The problem is his shot selection and scoring ability. He just has not demonstrated an ability to finish inside or outside, drifting on his shots and missing badly more often than he misses by a little. My spies said he was the best player on the team in practice last year, but he has not shown it this year.
Blake Paul is Blake Paul. He plays hard and blocks some shots but struggles to score at all unless he has a size mismatch.
Ray Ona Embo is not much of a distributor but has become a pretty good outside shooter and scorer. If he cuts out the careless turnovers that have hurt Tulane at critical times, he can help Tulane win.
Caleb Daniels has not progressed as much as I expected, but there is still time. He has to start taking better care of the ball.
Samir Sehic is playing defense and rebounding a lot better than he did earlier in the year, when he became a liability on the floor. If he starts consistently knocking down open 3-pointers, which he is capable of but has not done to this point, it will open up the floor and complement his ability to finish around the basket.
Melvin Frazier, of course, has been spectacular. He tailed off in the second half last night before scoring the winning bucket on a put-back, but he did not even practice two days before the game because he was sick. I think he ran out of energy after his terrific first half.
Tulane is 4-5 with nine games left. Looking at the schedule, and assuming the last two games do not become the norm, the most likely outcome is 4-5 the rest of the way (pretty much sure losses at Houston and at Wichita State and at home against Cincinnati; likely wins at home against ECU and at USF; splits in the four games against Temple and Memphis at home and Tulsa and UCF on the road).
An 8-10 record would be worse than I expected when conference play began, but it still would be two games better than Tulane's high-water mark of 6-12 in 2014-15, its first year in the AAC. The conference is still so muddled in the middle that it is hard to predict where Tulane will finish.
The concern is Frazier leaving for the NBA, a real possibility. He has holes in his game that would be exposed, but it's hard to argue with a guy shooting nearly 60 percent in a pretty good league. Without him and Reynolds, Tulane would be less talented next year than this unless the two incoming freshmen (to this point) lit it up.
